Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/5:
Feb 15, 2023; Brooklyn, New York, USA; Brooklyn Nets forward Mikal Bridges (1) reacts after a three point basket against the Miami Heat during the second half at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
EARLY SLATE:
Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 232.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -1.0
We’ll kick this slate off with the Suns, Kevin Durant has been trending in the right direction in terms of minutes and production and now gets a matchup against his old teammate in Kyrie. I have no issue going right back to him in this one. Devin Booker kept it rolling even with Durant in there, he has at least 57 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and gets an elite matchup against a Mavericks team that isn’t playing any sort of defense. Deandre Ayton comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here and will look like a solid option in all formats. I don’t love Chris Paul as much, as he’ll become more of a distributor with Durant out there now, he’s more of a secondary tournament option and I love his scoring unders in a PrizePicks format. Then we can probably jump off of the Josh Okogie train as well, but the minutes should continue to be there for him. From the Mavs, Kyrie Irving had a big bounce-back last time out against the Sixers. Since joining the team, Kyrie has a 27.2% usage rate and 1.27 fantasy points per minute which is nice even in a tougher matchup. Luka Doncic will look like a top spend-up option as well, he’s been in elite form. He has at least 58 FanDuel points in three of his last four games and makes sense in all formats. I can’t say I love Christian Wood due to the volatility in his minutes, but he’s an elite per-minute producer, so I don’t mind getting to him in GPPs. Then guys like Tim Hardaway and Josh Green are secondary options if you land on them when filling out your lineup. I do think Maxi Kleber is in play as a value option.
5-star play: Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving
4-star play: Deandre Ayton, Chris Paul
Deeper Value: Maxi Kleber
GPP Sleeper: Josh Okogie, Christian Wood, Tim Hardaway, Josh Green, Dwight Powell, Maxi Kleber
Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 224.0
Vegas Spread: Chi -6.0
Starting with the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton ended up missing their last game and comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here, but if he were to miss we can go back to guys like TJ McConnell, Chris Duarte, and Andrew Nembhard. Haliburton is going to look great at this price tag in a nice matchup with this Bulls defense. Myles Turner was popular last time out and ended up disappointing, but he’s been in good form and would be a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Buddy Hield isn’t my favorite option at this price tag, but the ceiling is obviously there for him and he’s coming off of a nice game last time out. Jordan Nwora was a guy I liked on a short slate last time out, but wasn’t the first guy off of the bench in that one like he was in the game prior. That said, he ended up closing and seeing 26 minutes, he’s going to be a guy I like going back to at this price tag again. Then guys like Bennedict Mathurin and Aaron Nesmith are solid tournament options in a nice matchup. From the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan bounced back somewhat last time out, but I can’t say I love the price tag. Generally at least one of DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, and Zach LaVine will have a big game and generally one will have a bad game, but good luck determining which that will be. I’ve been getting the most exposure to the cheapest of the three and I think that’s the best way to attack it. Last time out it was DeRozan who had the big game while Vucevic struggled. The rest of this team isn’t anything I think we need to prioritize, but guys like Patrick Williams or Alex Caruso make sense as last pieces in.
5-star play: Tyrese Haliburton
4-star play: Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine
Deeper Value: Jordan Nwora
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Nwora, Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: Gsw -5.0
We’ll start with the Warriors, Steph Curry plans to return in this one after being out for about a month. I would imagine he’s on some sort of minutes restriction but I would still think he’s around 27 minutes. I think he’ll do just enough to impact the production of Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson to give them a big hit at their current price tags. Curry is more of a tournament option as well, but the matchup is great against this Lakers team. Draymond Green is a fine option, but never a guy I feel the need to prioritize. I would think we see Donte DiVincenzo move back to the bench with Curry back in there and is a guy who will take a hit at his current price tag as well. Finally, Kevon Looney is averaging 27.3 DraftKings points in three games against the Lakers this season, and makes sense in all formats. Speaking of the Lakers, it sounds like they’ll be without LeBron James for the next few weeks at the very least while D’Angelo Russell is doubtful for this game as well. I would expect to see Dennis Schroder back in the starting lineup for Russell while LeBron’s spot is up for grabs between guys like Troy Brown, Rui Hachimura, and Lonnie Walker. Below is how this team operates with LeBron (and Westbrook) off of the court this season:
- Dennis Schroder – 24.1% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Malik Beasley – 22.1% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Troy Brown – 14.1% usage rate; 0.70 fpm
- Jarred Vanderbilt – 14.0% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
- Anthony Davis – 32.6% usage rate; 1.52 fpm
Davis is the guy who stands out in this one while you can make a case for guys like Schroder, Beasley, and Vanderbilt… but Davis is the only real priority and I’m sure we’re all tired of playing Vanderbilt by now.
5-star play: Anthony Davis
4-star play: Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, Dennis Schroder, Malik Beasley
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Troy Brown, Jarred Vanderbilt
MAIN SLATE:
Portland Trail Blazers @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 229.0
Vegas Spread: Orl -1.5
Starting with the Blazers, Anfernee Simons will end up being out again in this one after returning briefly earlier in the week. With Simons out, we can go right back to Damian Lillard in an elite matchup with this Magic backcourt, he also has a 40.3% usage rate and 1.72 fantasy points per minute with Simons and Nurkic off of the court this season. Jerami Grant has been solid over their last couple of games and is a guy I like here as well, this game has a massive implied total. Drew Eubanks will continue to start for Nurkic and makes sense as a mid-range option in all formats. Guys like Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle, and Cam Reddish should continue to benefit from Simons being out but are more of secondary GPP options. From the Magic, Jalen Suggs is hard for me to trust especially with Cole Anthony back and in the rotation. He’s too volatile for cash games but makes plenty of sense in tournaments, the same can probably be said for Anthony who has been in good form as of late. Markelle Fultz has been extremely consistent over their last handful of games and is a nice option at this price tag in a nice matchup. Paolo Banchero has at least 46 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and will look like a nice option in this matchup. Franz Wagner is rarely ever a guy I love and want to prioritize but he makes sense at the very least in this one. Then Wendell Carter Jr. makes sense as a tournament option in a great matchup against this Blazers frontcourt as well.
5-star play: Damian Lillard
4-star play: Jerami Grant, Drew Eubanks, Cam Reddish, Paolo Banchero, Markelle Fultz
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Matisse Thybulle, Drew Eubanks, Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, Wendell Carter Jr., Franz Wagner
Charlotte Hornets @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -7.5
Starting with the Hornets, they’ll get PJ Washington back in this one but will obviously be without LaMelo Ball yet again, as he’s out for the rest of the season. I would expect Kelly Oubre to stick around in the starting lineup while JT Thor moves back to the bench with Washington back in there. Below is how this team operates with Ball (and Mason Plumlee) off of the court this season:
- Terry Rozier – 30.4% usage rate; 1.08 fpm
- Kelly Oubre – 27.1% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
- Gordon Hayward – 21.4% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- PJ Washington – 25.3% usage rate; 1.06 fpm
- Mark Williams – 20.0% usage rate; 1.20 fpm
Guys like Rozier and Oubre take a bit of a hit with Washington in there, but will still look like great options yet again. I would imagine Washington is a full go, but keep an eye out for any sort of minutes restriction, he’ll look like a nice option yet again here. From the Nets, Ben Simmons will be out in this one, but he’s essentially their third-string center right now, so I don’t think it entirely matters. Spencer Dinwiddie continues to play pretty well and the matchup is great, he’s going to look like a nice option in all formats. Mikal Bridges is in the same boat and is a guy I’ve been all over since his first games with the team. He’s taking on a bigger role than he ever has before, he has a 26.9% usage rate and 1.22 fantasy points per minute since joining the team. Cam Thomas has moved back to the bench which makes him more of a tournament option than anything, his production becomes much more volatile. Nicolas Claxton will look great against this Hornets team but has been a bit more volatile as of late. Then, Cam Johnson has at least 32 DraftKings points in four straight games and looks good as well.
5-star play: Terry Rozier, Mikal Bridges
4-star play: Kelly Oubre, Gordon Hayward, PJ Washington, Mark Williams, Spencer Dinwiddie, Nicolas Claxton, Cam Johnson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Cam Thomas, Nicolas Claxton, Dorian Finney-Smith
Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: Okc -6.0
We saw this matchup the last time these two teams took the court, so we have a bit of a sample size to lean on. Starting with the Jazz, they’ll be without Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton while Jordan Clarkson should be back. Below is how this team operates with Markkanen off of the court this season:
- Jordan Clarkson – 31.6% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- Talen Horton-Tucker – 24.3% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- Ochai Agbaji – 14.2% usage rate; 0.62 fpm
- Kelly Olynyk – 19.0% usage rate; 0.89 fpm
- Walker Kessler – 13.7% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
Kris Dunn had another big game last time out, but I’m not paying this price tag for him. He played just 23 minutes and ran into four blocks/steals that helped elevate his production. If he’s going to be popular again, I think we have a real leverage opportunity. Clarkson has been out with a thumb injury, so I wouldn’t expect he’s limited by any means and will look great here in this matchup. The Jazz starters will look good as a whole in this one. From the Thunder, they’ll get Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back in this one, keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on if he’s limited at all, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go. The price tag is great and the matchup is as well, he’s going to look like a great option in all formats. Josh Giddey has been great over his last couple of games but will take a hit with Gilgeous-Alexander back and is more of a secondary option. Jalen Williams has at least 43 DraftKings points in three straight games and makes sense here as well in a great matchup. Lu Dort is more of a tournament option as this team gets healthier, he has some volatility to him. Then, I would expect Jaylin Williams to be the guy we want at the five and is a solid value option.
5-star play: Jordan Clarkson, Walker Kessler, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Talen Horton-Tucker, Kelly Olynyk, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams
Deeper Value: Jaylin Williams
GPP Sleeper: Lu Dort
San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Hou -2.5
Starting with the Spurs, they’ll be without Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell while Malaki Branham comes in as questionable. I would imagine Branham plays after missing yesterday’s game, but keep an eye on his status as we get closer to lock. Tre Jones got his minutes up to 25 last night and would expect more of the same out of him in this one. He has a 24.2% usage rate and 1.06 fantasy points per minute with Johnson and Vassell off of the court this season. Zach Collins kept it rolling last time night as well and makes sense in all formats, since Poeltl was traded, he’s averaging 34.49 FanDuel points per game. Jeremy Sochan was a popular option again last night for good reason, he’s going to look like a strong option again here, he’s been in great form. Devonte’ Graham continues to roll as well and is a guy I like going right back to with Johnson and Vassell out again. Lastly, Charles Bassey has been a good value option as the direct backup to Collins… that said, we have some value on this slate that will look better. From the Rockets, Jalen Green had a tough go of it last night but the matchup is great, and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in tournaments. Kevin Porter Jr. got up to 30 minutes last night which is good to see, this is a great matchup as well, he’s a solid GPP option. Alperen Sengun isn’t a guy that I’m all that thrilled with rostering here either, Green and Porter Jr. being back will soak into his usage and opportunity. That said, the matchup is elite, he’s averaging 34.9 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Spurs this season. Then guys like Jabari Smith and KJ Martin make sense as guys to round out the team, they’ll likely stick around in the starting lineup. We can add Tari Eason to that group as well, they’ve shown more of a willingness to give him more playing time and he’s produced nicely, he was a core play for me last night.
5-star play: Zach Collins, Devonte’ Graham, Tari Eason
4-star play: Tre Jones, Jeremy Sochan, Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr., Alperen Sengun, KJ Martin, Jabari Smith
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Malaki Branham, Charles Bassey, Jabari Smith, KJ Martin
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New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -5.5
Starting with the Knicks, Mitchell Robinson had a tough go of it in a bad matchup last time out, his price tag has come down, and had a big game against this Boston team a few games ago, I think he looks like a nice tournament option yet again. Josh Hart is a hard guy for me to trust with the minutes he’s getting, he was a lot easier to like when he was playing minutes in the mid-30s and not mid-20s. Julius Randle had a big bounce-back game last time out and makes sense as an option at this price tag. Jalen Brunson looks fine here, I don’t love the matchup and he’s averaging just 39.8 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Celtics this season. Then, RJ Barrett has been pretty volatile as of late making him a tournament option. From Boston, Jaylen Brown bounced back in a big way last time out and is a guy I have no issue going to here at a nice price tag. Jayson Tatum struggled in this matchup last week, but has since bounced back, we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle, and makes sense in all formats as a spend-up option. Then the trio of Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White are all pretty similar, their prices reflect that as well. I don’t love the matchup for any of them, but Smart has the most locked-in minutes, so if I had to choose between them, he would probably be the guy I look toward. Lastly, Robert Williams will miss this game, so guys like Al Horford, Mike Muscala, and Grant Williams will run the frontcourt for Boston.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Mitchell Robinson, Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, Jaylen Brown
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Josh Hart, RJ Barrett, Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White, Marcus Smart, Al Horford
Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -4.5
Starting with the Bucks, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them rest some guys on the back end of a back-to-back and flying out late last night… but that’s just reckless speculation at this point in the day, so we’ll operate under the assumption that everyone will be a go here. Giannis Antetokounmpo dropped 81 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season and makes sense as a spend-up option on this slate. Jrue Holiday has been good as of late but feels like he’s just a bit overpriced with this team healthy, he’d be more of a secondary option. I’m still not going to pay this price tag for Bobby Portis either, the minutes aren’t there to support that tag. Brook Lopez has been great as of late and is a guy I like going right back to here as well. Khris Middleton finally got his minutes over 25 last night and naturally had a down game, that said, if his minutes are going to continue to climb he’s going to look like a nice option here. Then guys like Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, and Jae Crowder are all dart throws in tournaments to round out this team. From the Wizards, they’ll continue to be without Monte Morris which will lead to Delon Wright getting the start at point guard again in this one. He has a 13.6% usage rate and 0.93 fantasy points per minute with Morris off of the court this season. Kristaps Porzingis dropped a 50-burger last night and is a guy I have no issue going back to in this one. Bradley Beal has been much better as of late and is a guy I don’t mind going to here either, but more of a secondary option than anything. Kyle Kuzma comes in as questionable if he misses guys like Beal and Kristaps would see a boost while Kuzma would be a tournament option if he’s able to go. Daniel Gafford isn’t a guy I like any time Kuzma and Kristaps are good to go, but he’ll look solid if Kuzma is forced to miss.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Delon Wright, Kristaps Porzingis, Bradley Beal
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Khris Middleton, Kyle Kuzma, Daniel Gafford
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Lac -7.0
Starting with the Grizzlies, they’ll be without Ja Morant for the next few games along with Dillon Brooks while Brandon Clarke will miss the rest of the season. I would expect Tyus Jones and John Konchar to jump into the starting lineup with Morant and Brooks out. Below is how this team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- Tyus Jones – 20.1% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Desmond Bane – 28.9% usage rate; 1.34 fpm
- John Konchar – 11.3% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
- Jaren Jackson Jr. – 29.2% usage rate; 1.36 fpm
- Xavier Tillman – 16.8% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
Jones is going to be the most popular play on the slate on DraftKings, they failed to price him up for whatever reason. Even on FanDuel, he’s playable with how well he performs with Morant out. I do love Bane and Jackson here as well with the increase in usage and production. We should see more minutes out of Santi Aldama off of the bench as well with Clarke out. From the Clippers, Ivica Zubac comes in as questionable, but we likely won’t know that news before lock, if he’s out we can go right back to the well with Mason Plumlee. Kawhi Leonard should return here and looks like a fine secondary option, but not a guy I think we need to prioritize by any means. Paul George is in a similar boat at a cheaper price tag, the matchup is great, and is another guy that makes sense in all formats. Russell Westbrook looked great with Kawhi out last time out but is more of a tournament option with him back in this one. Then guys like Eric Gordon, Terance Mann, and Marcus Morris are tournament punts on a big slate.
5-star play: Tyus Jones (DraftKings), Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson
4-star play: Xavier Tillman, Tyus Jones (FanDuel), Kawhi Leonard, Paul George
Deeper Value: Santi Aldama
GPP Sleeper: John Konchar, Santi Aldama, Eric Gordon, Marcus Morris, Russell Westbrook
NBA Lock of the Day: Tyus Jones (DK – $3.1k; FD – $6.0k)
I just touched on it in that last game, but Jones is a legit lock on DraftKings, they failed to adjust his price tag. The price on FanDuel is more accurate but he’s still been great with Morant off of the court. He’s averaging 40.1 FanDuel points per game in nine games with Morant off of the court this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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