Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/3:
Mar 2, 2023; San Francisco, California, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Jordan Poole (3) sticks out his tongue in celebration after scoring a three point basket against the Los Angeles Clippers during the third quarter at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Orlando Magic @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Orl -3.5
We’ll kick this slate off with the Magic, Jalen Suggs is hard for me to trust especially with Cole Anthony back and in the rotation. He’s too volatile for cash games but makes plenty of sense in tournaments, the same can probably be said for Anthony who’s coming off of a huge game against the Bucks. Markelle Fultz has been extremely consistent over their last handful of games and is a nice option at this price tag in a nice matchup. Paolo Banchero is a fine option, but he’s been volatile relative to his current price tag, I do like the matchup, however. Franz Wagner is rarely ever a guy I love and want to prioritize but he makes sense at the very least in this one. Then Wendell Carter Jr. bounced back nicely last time out and the matchup is great against this Hornets frontcourt. Speaking of the Hornets, they lost LaMelo Ball for the season earlier this week due to that fractured ankle, so they’ll be without him, obviously. I thought we would see Dennis Smith Jr. in the starting lineup, but they ended up throwing Kelly Oubre in there. Below is how this team operates with Ball and PJ Washington (listed doubtful) off of the court this season:
- Terry Rozier – 32.5% usage rate; 1.15 fpm
- Dennis Smith Jr. – 20.2% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Gordon Hayward – 25.4% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- JT Thor – 12.9% usage rate; 0.57 fpm
- Mark Williams – 21.1% usage rate; 1.29 fpm
- Kelly Oubre – 30.4% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
I had a bunch of Oubre last time out and it ended up working nicely, I don’t love Smith Jr. off of the bench but he’s a fine option. Outside of him, the rest of this starting lineup will see a boost, but I’m not touching JT Thor, he’s just out there running wind sprints.
5-star play: Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre
4-star play: Markelle Fultz, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr., Gordon Hayward, Mark Williams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, Franz Wagner, Dennis Smith Jr.
Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 228.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -11.0
Starting with the Nets, Ben Simmons will be out in this one, but he’s essentially their third-string center right now, so I don’t think it entirely matters. Spencer Dinwiddie continues to play pretty well, I don’t love the matchup but he’s going to look like a nice mid-range point guard option in this one. Mikal Bridges is in the same boat and is a guy I’m buying stock in going forward, I think he’s going to have a big finish to the season. He has a 26.9% usage rate and 1.19 fantasy points per minute since joining the team. Cam Thomas has moved back to the bench which makes him more of a tournament option than anything, his production becomes much more volatile. Nicolas Claxton has looked much better over his last couple of games but his minutes came back down last time out, that said, it was mostly due to a blowout, so I like going back to him in this one. Then, Cam Johnson has at least 36 DraftKings points in three straight games and looks good as well. From the Celtics, Jaylen Brown returned last time out and played his normal 35+ minutes. He had a tough game shooting which naturally lead to a rough DFS game, it’s a nice bounce-back spot, so he’ll be a solid secondary option. Jayson Tatum bounced back in a big way last time out and is averaging 50.8 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Nets this season. Then the trio of Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White are all pretty similar, their prices reflect that as well. I don’t love the matchup for any of them, but Smart has the most locked-in minutes, so if I had to choose between them, he would probably be the guy I look toward. Lastly, Robert Williams is a solid secondary center option if you see yourself landing in the mid-range.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Spencer Dinwiddie, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Nicolas Claxton, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Cam Thomas, Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White, Al Horford
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Portland Trail Blazers @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 241.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -6.5
Starting with the Blazers, Anfernee Simons ended up returning last time out but left the game early… he’s going to come into this one as doubtful. With Simons out, we can go right back to Damian Lillard in an elite matchup with this Hawks backcourt, he also has a 40.9% usage rate and 1.73 fantasy points per minute with Simons and Nurkic off of the court this season. Jerami Grant has been solid over their last couple of games and is a guy I like here as well, this game has a massive implied total. Drew Eubanks will continue to start for Nurkic and makes sense as a mid-range option in all formats. Guys like Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle, and Cam Reddish should continue to benefit from Simons being out but are more of secondary GPP options. From the Hawks, Trae Young has been extremely consistent as of late with at least 45 DraftKings points in nine straight games, and makes for a fun matchup with Dame on the other end of this one. I never love Dejounte Murray when Trae is in there but we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle and looks like a nice option in tournaments. Clint Capela had a huge bounce-back game last time out but he finally got 35 minutes, his minutes are all over the place which makes him hard to trust in cash, but makes plenty of sense as a tournament option. Then the group of De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, and Saddiq Bey eat into each other’s production and are fine GPP darts if you land on them in your builds.
5-star play: Damian Lillard, Trae Young
4-star play: Jerami Grant, Drew Eubanks, Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Matisse Thybulle, Cam Reddish, De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, Saddiq Bey
Phoenix Suns @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -5.0
Starting with the Suns, Kevin Durant made his debut last time out and played 27 minutes, so I would imagine he’s around 30 minutes again in this one. I don’t think he’s a bad option but not a guy I’ll be prioritizing until he’s a full go as he shares usage with Devin Booker in this offense. Speaking of Booker, he wasn’t impacted by Durant being in the lineup, he had a massive game and is going to look like a nice option again in this one. Deandre Ayton dropped 57 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and makes sense in all formats as well. I don’t love Chris Paul as much, as he’ll become more of a distributor with Durant out there now, he’s more of a secondary tournament option and I love his scoring unders in a PrizePicks format. Then we can probably jump off of the Josh Okogie train as well, but the minutes should continue to be there for him. From the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan bounced back somewhat last time out, but the price tag doesn’t exactly make you feel comfortable in a tough matchup with this Suns team. Generally at least one of DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, and Zach LaVine will have a big game and generally one will have a bad game, but good luck determining which that will be. I’ve been getting the most exposure to the cheapest of the three and I think that’s the best way to attack it. Last time out it was LaVine who had the big game while Vucevic struggled. The rest of this team isn’t anything I think we need to prioritize, but guys like Patrick Williams or Alex Caruso make sense as last pieces in although I think we can do better on a big slate.
5-star play: Devin Booker
4-star play: Kevin Durant, Deandre Ayton, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Chris Paul, Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso
New York Knicks @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 215.5
Vegas Spread: Nyk -3.0
Starting with the Knicks, Mitchell Robinson has quickly returned to his normal role and was one of my favorite tournament options last time out, I have no issue going right back to the well with him. Josh Hart is a hard guy for me to trust with the minutes he’s getting, he was a lot easier to like when he was playing minutes in the mid-30s and not mid-20s. Julius Randle is interesting at this price tag, he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle but I hate the matchup with a slow-paced Miami team. Jalen Brunson bounced back in a big way against the Nets and makes sense again in this one, but again, I don’t love the matchup against a good defense. Then, RJ Barrett has been pretty volatile as of late making him a tournament option. From the Heat, Tyler Herro has been all over the place as of late and is more of a tournament option at his current price tag in a slower matchup. Jimmy Butler came down to Earth last time out as well and comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock. Bam Adebayo gets away from Embiid in this one and gets a solid matchup here, I have no issue going right back to him especially if Butler ends up sitting. Then guys like Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Victor Oladipo will continue to fill the void left by Kyle Lowry who has already been ruled out in this one. Then Kevin Love was fine last time out but I would imagine he continues to start for them, I just wish he was a little cheaper.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, Jalen Brunson, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: RJ Barrett, Josh Hart, Victor Oladipo, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Kevin Love
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Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Uta -1.5
Starting with the Jazz, Jordan Clarkson has joined Collin Sexton on the inactives for tonight’s game, which should keep Ochai Agbaji in the starting lineup. Agbaji isn’t a guy I have a ton of interest in, but Kris Dunn makes sense off of the bench as he attempts to fill in some of those minutes left open. Talen Horton-Tucker is a guy we can go right back to as well with Sexton out again. He has at least 30 DraftKings points in three of his last four and his minutes are much more consistent with these guys off of the court. Lauri Markkanen bounced back nicely last time out and has a 33.4% usage rate and 1.53 fantasy points per minute with all these Jazz pieces off of the court this season. Walker Kessler continues to look great and is a nice piece in all formats as well. Then Kelly Olynyk has come down to Earth a bit over his last few games but I love the matchup and think he makes sense on this slate. From the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander entered health and safety protocols earlier in the week and will continue to be out in this one. Josh Giddey and Lu Dort bounced back nicely last time out and got their minutes back after the whole team saw around 20 minutes in the previous game. They’re going to be incredibly hard for me to trust here, but the matchup is good and there should be open usage and opportunity to go around. If we assume they run a normal NBA rotation, my favorite pieces would be Giddey, Dort, and the Williams’ guys again in this one.
5-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler
4-star play: Talen Horton-Tucker, Kelly Olynyk, Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams
Deeper Value: Jaylin Williams, Dario Saric
GPP Sleeper: Kris Dunn, Isaiah Joe, Jaylin Williams, Dario Saric
Memphis Grizzlies @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: Den -5.0
Starting with the Grizzlies, Ja Morant came down to Earth a bit last time out and is averaging 44.5 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Nuggets this season, I have no issue going right back to him in this one. Jaren Jackson is a hard guy to trust with his foul issues especially in a matchup against Jokic down low, that said, we know the ceiling is there for him. We know Desmond Bane is going to continue his consistency and looks like a nice option in all formats as well after a huge game last time out. Brandon Clarke returned to the bench last time out, so probably not a guy I’ll get too much of at this price tag. Xavier Tillman will make sense as a mid-range center option, but again, a tough matchup with Jokic down low. Then Dillon Brooks is a fine GPP option to round out the team but I imagine we can find better options on a nice-sized slate. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to look like a top spend-up option on this slate even after struggling in this matchup the last time these two teams met. Jamal Murray seems like he’s starting to find his groove again and is a guy I like going back to in this one. Then guys like Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. make sense as secondary options to round out this team in what should be a fun game to watch.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Ja Morant
4-star play: Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Xavier Tillman, Brandon Clarke, Dillon Brooks, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Gsw -4.0
Starting with the Pelicans, they’re going to be without Jonas Valanciunas in this one which should vault Willy Hernangomez into the starting lineup. He started last time out and played 21 minutes and I would expect something similar out of him in this one, he’s going to look like a great value option. I would expect to see more minutes from guys like Herb Jones, Jaxson Hayes, and Trey Murphy as well, as this Warriors team has a tendency to go small. Brandon Ingram had a massive game against the Blazers last time out and gets an elite matchup in this one and will look like a nice option. CJ McCollum is never a guy I love when Ingram is in there but I have no issue going back to him if you land on him in this one. Then Josh Richardson has been good for the Pels since being acquired and is a fine filler piece. From the Warriors, Andrew Wiggins will be out along with Steph Curry in this one. I would expect to see Donte DiVincenzo back in the starting lineup and has been in great form as of late. The multi-position eligibility on him makes it easy to get him into lineups. Jordan Poole hasn’t exactly been great over his last few games but we know the usage and opportunity is there with Curry and Wiggins out, so he’s a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Klay Thompson has been the guy we want in the backcourt as of late and has a 28.6% usage rate and 1.15 fantasy points per minute with Wiggins and Curry off of the court this season. Draymond Green is rarely a guy I prioritize but is a fine option to round out your roster construction if you land on him. Lastly, I would expect Kevon Looney to stick in the starting lineup and he has at least 25 DraftKings points in four of his last five games.
5-star play: Brandon Ingram, Willy Hernangomez
4-star play: CJ McCollum, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Donte DiVincenzo, Kevon Looney
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Herb Jones, Jaxson Hayes, Trey Murphy, Josh Richardson
Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 239.5
Vegas Spread: Sac -6.0
Starting with the Clippers, Ivica Zubac ended up missing last night’s game which led to Mason Plumlee seeing another start and looking like a nice fantasy option, if Zubac is out again tonight we can go back to the well on Plums. Kawhi Leonard and Norman Powell will be out for the Clippers in this one which will shake things up a bit. I would expect to see Eric Gordon back in the starting lineup with either Marcus Morris or Nicolas Batum depending on the status of Morris. Both starters would be in play as an option in a great matchup here. Paul George has a 33% usage rate and 1.27 fantasy points per minute with Kawhi off of the court this season and would be a guy I like going back to in this one. Russell Westbrook is starting to show some Russell Westbrook tendencies on his new team and is going to be a tournament-only option, that said, he should pick up some extra minutes and opportunities with Kawhi out here. From the Kings, Domantas Sabonis has been great as of late but is averaging just 42.6 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Clippers this season. I like the price tag a good amount as well. De’Aaron Fox has been in similarly great form if not, even better form than Sabonis. That said, he does come in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him. Then we get to the mid-range of this team which is very bunched together with guys like Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, Harrison Barnes, and Keegan Murray. I have no issue with any of these guys if you happened to land on them, but Murray and Barnes make plenty of sense in cash games.
5-star play: Paul George, Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, Ivica Zubac/Mason Plumlee (whoever starts), De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Marcus Morris, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Lal -1.0
Starting with the Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert is going to continue to be a guy I like going forward, he did come down last time out but I have no issue going back to him in this one. We’ve seen him benefit with Conley in there already with at least 38.5 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. Speaking of Mike Conley, I have no issue going right back to him as well, the price tag is nice and we know the consistency will be there. Anthony Edwards has been a bit more volatile as of late but I love the matchup in this one, he’s going to look like a solid option in all formats. Then we can round the team out with Jaden McDaniels and Kyle Anderson who make sense as GPP options at the forward position. From the Lakers, it sounds like they’ll be without LeBron James for the next few weeks at the very least while D’Angelo Russell is doubtful for this game as well. I would expect to see Dennis Schroder back in the starting lineup for Russell while LeBron’s spot is up for grabs between guys like Troy Brown, Rui Hachimura, and Lonnie Walker. Below is how this team operates with LeBron (and Westbrook) off of the court this season:
- Dennis Schroder – 24.7% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
- Malik Beasley – 23.1% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Troy Brown – 14.5% usage rate; 0.68 fpm
- Jarred Vanderbilt – 14.7% usage rate; 1.06 fpm
- Anthony Davis – 30.8% usage rate; 1.52 fpm
Davis is the guy who stands out in this one while you can make a case for guys like Schroder, Beasley, and Vanderbilt… but Davis is the only real priority and I’m sure we’re all tired of playing Vanderbilt by now but we do get a revenge game against his old squad for whatever that’s worth.
5-star play: Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards
4-star play: Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson, Dennis Schroder, Malik Beasley
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jaden McDaniels, Troy Brown, Jarred Vanderbilt
NBA Lock of the Day: Eric Gordon (DK – $3.7k; FD – $4.2k)
The Clippers are going to be shorthanded with Kawhi Leonard and likely Norman Powell out in this one. We saw Eric Gordon get the start last night and play 33 minutes, I would expect he plays all the minutes he can handle in this one and see a bump in usage and shot opportunities in a great matchup against this Kings team that wants to play fast. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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