Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/29:
Mar 5, 2023; Dallas, Texas, USA; Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant (35) in action during the game between the Dallas Mavericks and the Phoenix Suns at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Mil -11.5
We’ll kick this slate off with the Bucks, they should get their normal starters back for this one after resting last time out. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 57.4 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Pacers this season. Blowout is certainly in play which could impact his minutes, but it’s a good enough matchup where I think he looks like a solid spend-up option. Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez filled in big time for Giannis and Jrue last time out and look like solid options yet again here. The price tag on Jrue Holiday feels like it fell a bit too far and is a guy I like going back to in this one as well. Then guys like Grayson Allen and Pat Connaughton are MME options to round out this team. From the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton will be out for this one while Myles Turner comes in as questionable. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go, but obviously, keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding his status. Assuming he plays, below is my projected starting five for the Pacers and how they’ve operated with Haliburton off of the court this season:
- Andrew Nembhard – 19.3% usage rate; 0.89 fpm
- Bennedict Mathurin – 27.8% usage rate; 0.98 fpm
- Buddy Hield – 20.2% usage rate; 0.98 fpm
- Aaron Nesmith – 17.3% usage rate; 0.72 fpm
- Myles Turner – 24.1% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
The only guy that I’m not all that interested in is Aaron Nesmith of these starters, I would probably even prefer a guy like Jordan Nwora off of the bench… someone with a little more usage and production on a per-minute basis. This is going to be a fast-paced game, so I have no issue going right back to this team.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Myles Turner
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton, Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, TJ McConnell, Buddy Hield
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen, Jordan Nwora, Aaron Nesmith
Miami Heat @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Nyk -4.0
Starting with the Heat, Jimmy Butler ended up getting a mid-day downgrade yesterday and eventually ended up missing their game. I would think that was more of a rest day than anything on the front end of a back-to-back, so I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. Butler is averaging 47.3 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Knicks this season. Bam Adebayo bounced back nicely last night filling in for some of the void that Butler left. I have no issue going back to him here, but not a priority by any means. Tyler Herro has found some consistency as of late but still feels volatile, so more of a GPP option for me, I wouldn’t talk you off of him after a nice night last night. Max Strus had a big letdown game last night and was somewhat popular, he’s not a guy we need to get to on this slate. Then guys like Kevin Love and Kyle Lowry are fine secondary options on the lower end of this team. From the Knicks, Jalen Brunson comes into this one as questionable after missing their last couple of games, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’ll be good to go here. We know what to do at this point if he’s ruled out. The matchup isn’t great but he’s underpriced right now. Julius Randle is averaging 49.9 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Heat this season and is a solid secondary option. We can jump off of the Immanuel Quickley train if Brunson is good to go but will look solid in a starting role if he’s out again. Guys like Josh Hart and RJ Barrett are fine secondary options who would see a boost if Brunson were to miss. Lastly, Mitchell Robinson got into quick foul trouble last game which killed his minutes, he’s a fine GPP option.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Max Strus, Kevin Love, Kyle Lowry, Josh Hart, RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Houston Rockets @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 230.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -12.0
We’ll start with the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. bounced back last time out and gets a nice matchup in this one, and the price tag has come down a good amount on him. I would probably prefer to take on a bit more volatility and take the savings on Jalen Green who is seeing all the minutes he can handle right now, but still again more of a GPP guy… he has at least 41 DraftKings points in two of his last four games. Alperen Sengun hasn’t been in the best form as of late but is a fine option if you land on him to round out rosters. Jabari Smith has come down to Earth a bit after going on the heater about a week and a half ago but did bounce back nicely last time out. With this team mostly healthy he’s a GPP-only guy while we can probably put KJ Martin and Tari Eason in that boat as well. From the Nets, I’ve been playing a ton of Mikal Bridges as of late and he paid off big time last time out, I love going right back to him in this one, he’s the primary playmaker for the Nets right now. Spencer Dinwiddie had a rough game last time out and really just a terrible shooting game going 0-11 from the field. I like this as a bounce-back spot for him and think he makes sense in all formats. Nicolas Claxton has been a lot more consistent as of late and dropped 46.25 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season. Cam Johnson has been fairly volatile as of late but makes sense as a roster filler if you land in that price range. The same can be said for Royce O’Neale and Dorian Finney-Smith, but I doubt we need them on a 10-game slate.
5-star play: Mikal Bridges
4-star play: Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Spencer Dinwiddie, Nic Claxton
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jabari Smith, KJ Martin, Tari Eason, Cam Johnson, Royce O’Neale, Dorian Finney-Smith
Dallas Mavericks @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Phi -5.0
Starting with the Mavericks, they should be mostly healthy outside of Maxi Kleber who comes in as questionable. Luka Doncic had a down game last time out but lost some minutes due to a blowout, he dropped nearly 70 fantasy points in this matchup earlier this season and is a great spend-up option yet again. Kyrie Irving feels a bit overpriced with Luka back in there but is a fine GPP option due to the upside he brings. I don’t see the need to get to Christian Wood, Jason Kidd hates him and the minutes are trending in the wrong direction. The rest of this team is pretty meh with Luka and Kyrie soaking up all the usage, but we can probably make a case for Kleber as a last-piece in type play. From the Sixers, James Harden has missed their last handful of games and comes into this game as questionable. Keep an eye on our Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock. but I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays and has been in good form when out there, but if he’s out, the rest of this lineup sees a pretty nice boost but the price tags are starting to catch up with them. Due to this, guys like Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, and Tyrese Maxey are really only in play for me if he’s ruled out. Joel Embiid missed their last game as well but we’ll assume he’s good to go as well, both Harden and Embiid would look like elite options against this Mavs team that isn’t playing any sort of defense.
5-star play: Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid, James Harden
4-star play: Kyrie Irving
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Maxi Kleber, Tim Hardaway, Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, Tyrese Maxey
Los Angeles Lakers @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Lal -1.5
Starting with the Lakers, LeBron James returned last time out to play 30 minutes and comes into this one as questionable. Assuming he’s good to go it doesn’t seem like he’ll be limited at all moving forward and will look like a great option in all formats. Anthony Davis is probably a bit overpriced with LeBron back in there as he’ll lose some usage and opportunity. That being said, he still has an elite ceiling. D’Angelo Russell’s production wasn’t bothered with LeBron back last time out but he now moves to being the third scoring option in this offense which will make him more of a secondary option for me. Then Austin Reaves continues to play massive minutes but is overpriced as well with LeBron back in there. From the Bulls, Zach LaVine has been pretty consistent as of late and is playing all of the minutes he can handle. I like going right back to the well with him in this one. DeMar DeRozan bounced back nicely last time out and is someone I like as a secondary option as well. Nikola Vucevic has been somewhat volatile as of late but the matchup doesn’t scare me, he’s going to look like a nice secondary option. Coby White has been sneaky great with at least 33 DraftKings points in two of his last three and has been seeing good minutes. Then guys like Patrick Beverley and Patrick Williams are fine secondary options as roster fillers.
5-star play: LeBron James
4-star play: Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Coby White, Patrick Beverley, Patrick Williams, D’Angelo Russell
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Detroit Pistons @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Okc -11.0
Starting with the Pistons, Jaden Ivey and Killian Hayes will continue to play all the minutes they can handle and run this backcourt. It’s a nice pace-up spot for the Pistons as well. Marvin Bagley has seen at least 30 minutes in four straight games and Jalen Duren coming back last time out didn’t seem to impact that. I have no issue going right back to him in this one, this Thunder team is not good against opposing power forwards. James Wiseman and Duren are splitting the center minutes right now and both make for more GPP options than anything. From the Thunder, I would expect Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to return in this one but make sure to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates regarding his status. He dropped 58.75 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season and is a guy I have no issue going right back to again in this one. I don’t exactly want to pay this price tag for Josh Giddey but he’s been in elite form over his last couple of games with at least 47 DraftKings points in three straight games. Jalen Williams had a big game as well and is someone I like going back to in a great matchup regardless of if Gilgeous-Alexander is in or not. Meanwhile, Lu Dort would be a volatile GPP option but will see big minutes. Lastly, Jaylin Williams should continue to start at center but is a pretty risky option.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Jaden Ivey, Killian Hayes, Marvin Bagley, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: James Wiseman, Jalen Duren, Lu Dort, Jaylin Williams
Los Angeles Clippers @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Mem -4.5
Starting with the Clippers, Paul George is going to miss the next few weeks with a knee injury, below is how this team operates with him off of the court over the last four weeks:
- Russell Westbrook – 28.3% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- Eric Gordon – 21.2% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Kawhi Leonard – 29.5% usage rate; 1.38 fpm
- Nicolas Batum – 12.2% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
- Ivica Zubac – 15.6% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
Kawhi and Westbrook are the big standouts as they’ll be the guy’s with the ball in their hands more often with George off of the court, I don’t love the price tag on Westbrook, but he makes sense as a tournament option and the price has come down a bit since their last game. I do like Gordon and Batum as secondary options as well as they likely see some additional shots. I should mention Bones Hyland as well who has seen at least 24 minutes in three straight games and has played well when given the opportunity. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant should return after missing yesterday’s game, and would assume he’s right back in the starting lineup. I like going right back to him at this price tag, we’re used to seeing him in the $10k range as a starter, and is underpriced at the moment. Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. will take a hit to their rates with Morant back in there but are still fine secondary options. We can jump off of the Tyus Jones train with Morant back in as well. Lastly, I don’t have any issue with Xavier Tillman if you land in his price range or need a mid-range center.
5-star play: Kawhi Leonard, Ja Morant
4-star play: Russell Westbrook, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson, Xavier Tillman
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Nicolas Batum, Ivica Zubac, Eric Gordon, Bones Hyland, Dillon Brooks
Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Uta -4.5
Starting with the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen returned last time out after missing their last few games, that said, he comes in as questionable here while Jordan Clarkson and Simone Fontecchio will both sit. Assuming Markkanene plays he’s going to look like a great option in a matchup against a tanking Spurs team. Talen Horton-Tucker bounced back nicely last time out and finally got his minutes back, this game should stay competitive so I would expect the minutes to be there and will look great. Walker Kessler has at least 52 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and will look like a nice option as well. Kelly Olynyk has been in great form and is a guy I like going back to again here especially if Markkanen does end up getting ruled out. Lastly, Kris Dunn and Juan Toscano-Anderson should see a boost in minutes if Markkanen is forced to miss with Fontecchio already ruled out. From the Spurs, they’ll be without Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and Jeremy Sochan here which should lead to Malaki Branham, Keita Bates-Diop, and someone like Romeo Langford moving back into the starting lineup. All of these guys will look like solid options at their respective price tags. Zach Collins has at least 41 DraftKings in three of his last four and will look good with how shorthanded the Spurs are. Tre Jones has a 24.6% usage rate 1.05 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court this season and would look like a nice option to round out this starting lineup. I do think Devonte’ Graham makes sense as a GPP flyer as well.
5-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Tre Jones
4-star play: Talen Horton-Tucker, Kelly Olynyk, Malaki Branham, Keita Bates-Diop
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Romeo Langford, Devonte’ Graham
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: Phx -6.5
Starting with the Wolves, both Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns should be good to go hear as they both come in probable. I’m probably going to be underweight on Edwards until his price tag comes down a bit, Towns being back will impact his rates in the wrong direction. Towns make sense here and likely won’t be limited moving forward, the matchup isn’t the best but the upside is obviously there. Rudy Gobert has been extremely consistent as of late and the price tag on him isn’t too bad, I think he looks like a nice center option in all formats. Mike Conley has come down to Earth over his last few games after a good stretch of games. He’s going to be more of a secondary option for me here. Then I’ll probably jump off of the Jaden McDaniels boat with these guys back, but Kyle Anderson kept motoring last time out and is never a sexy option but it’s hard to ignore his production. From the Suns, it sounds like Kevin Durant will return here and I would think he plays his normal role… they wouldn’t bring him back if he wasn’t ready. He looked incredible before getting hurt earlier in the month and is a guy I have no issue going right back to here. Durant returning will hurt the rates for Devin Booker and Chris Paul, Paul will likely take on more of a facilitator role while Booker wasn’t all that impacted with Durant in there in the few games they played together. Deandre Ayton will look like a solid secondary option as well while Josh Okogie will see his fair share of open threes, if he can knock them down he’s a fine MME option but we can probably do better on a big slate.
5-star play: Kevin Durant
4-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Anthony Edwards, Kyle Anderson, Mike Conley, Josh Okogie
Sacramento Kings @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: Sac -13.5
Starting with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis has been in great form as of late and feels slightly too cheap in a great matchup here, he’s going to be able to do whatever he wants against this Blazers team that has waved the white flag on the season. De’Aaron Fox is averaging 47.5 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Blazers this season and is going to look like a strong option as well. Kevin Huerter came down to Earth after back-to-back massive games but is someone I have no issue going to as a roster filler in a great matchup. He’s a solid secondary option along with these other mid-range guys such as Harrison Barnes and Keegan Murray. Then we can round this team out with Malik Monk as a tournament option. From the Blazers, they’re going to be without their main guys in Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant, Jusuf Nurkic, and Anfernee Simons. I would expect to see guys like Ryan Arcidiacano, Shaedon Sharpe, Trendon Watford, and Drew Eubanks back in the starting lineup and opens up a ton of usage and minutes on the bench as well. Watford does come in as questionable, so keep an eye on his status as we get closer to lock. Cam Reddish would be my favorite option off of the bench, but this is a great matchup for this whole team, so there are some nice options here. Keon Johnson saw more minutes last time out with Watford out as well and is someone I think we can go back to here. I don’t think the game stays close but these Blazers guys are all blowout-proof right now.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, Shaedon Sharpe
4-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Keegan Murray, Trendon Watford, Drew Eubanks, Keon Johnson, Nassir Little
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Harrison Barnes, Malik Monk, Ryan Arcidiacano, Cam Reddish, Matisse Thybulle, Jabari Walker, Kevin Knox
NBA Lock of the Day: Drew Eubanks (DK – $4.7k; FD – $5.6k)
I’m going right back to the well with Eubanks here, he’s going to start and play all the minutes he can handle in a fast-paced game against the Kings. He lost a few minutes due to a massive blowout last time out which is definitely in the cards tonight, but as long as they can keep it within 20 I think he plays close to 30 minutes in a great matchup. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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