Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/27:
Mar 26, 2023; San Francisco, California, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) celebrates after making a three point basket in the last few seconds of the game against the Golden State Warriors during the fourth quarter at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Dal -1.0
We’ll kick this slate off with the Mavs, they’ll be without Luka Doncic again in this one which should lead to Josh Green sliding back into the starting lineup. Below is how this team has operated with Luka off of the court over the last four weeks:
- Kyrie Irving – 32.6% usage rate; 1.29 fpm
- Reggie Bullock – 10.5% usage rate; 0.70 fpm
- Josh Green – 19.6% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
- Maxi Kleber – 8.9% usage rate; 0.57 fpm
- Dwight Powell – 13.3% usage rate; 0.85 fpm
They’re going to need some sort of playmaking outside of Kyrie, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see more of Jaden Hardy and Christian Wood as well. The matchup is great, so Kyrie is going to look like an elite play while the rest of this team is strictly GPP options at this moment. From the Pacers, we’ll need some news on this team before we can dig too deep into them. Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner come into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates but for the sake of this article I’ll operate under the assumption that their good to go. They’re both going to look like great options against a Mavs team that isn’t playing any sort of defense. They both had nice games against this team earlier in the season as well. Jordan Nwora had a massive game last time out but has been fairly volatile both in production and in his playing time, I don’t think I want to chase him at this time, but he’s a fine MME option due to that upside. The price tag on Buddy Hield is solid even after coming off of the bench last time out, he’s a solid secondary option. Then guys like Andrew Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin are tournament options to round this team out.
5-star play: Kyrie Irving, Tyrese Haliburton
4-star play: Josh Green, Myles Turner, Buddy Hield
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jaden Hardy, Christian Wood, Reggie Bullock, Dwight Powell, Jordan Nwora, Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin
Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 232.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -15.5
Starting with the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 54.4 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Pistons this season. I do worry about blowout a good amount here, the Bucks are pretty quick to start reducing minutes in games that get even close to out of hand. He’s still a solid raw option at the very least in a great matchup. The same can be said for the rest of this lineup with guys like Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and Brook Lopez… in a vacuum they all look great, but the minutes may not be there if this game goes the direction that the spread suggests it could. I’ll consider these three guys’ GPP options along with guys like Grayson Allen and Pat Connaughton. From the Pistons, Jaden Ivey and Killian Hayes will continue to play all the minutes they can handle and run this backcourt. It’s a slight pace-up spot for the Pistons as well. Marvin Bagley has seen at least 30 minutes in three straight games but probably takes a slight hit or at least be a little more volatile with Jalen Duren back in this one. Speaking of Duren, he’s not exactly a guy I’m all that thrilled about with the volatility in his minutes as of late as well… it’s a tough matchup with Lopez and Giannis in the paint as well. James Wiseman has been running the starting center spot but has come down to Earth a bit over his last few games, I’ll consider him a tournament option to round out this team.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Killian Hayes, Jaden Ivey, James Wiseman
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Brook Lopez, Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, Jalen Duren, Marvin Bagley
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Houston Rockets @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Nyk -12.5
We’ll start with the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. had a pretty terrible game last night in a tough matchup against the Cavs. This isn’t exactly a great bounce-back spot but he didn’t drop 48.5 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season. I would probably prefer to take on a bit more volatility and take the savings on Jalen Green who is seeing all the minutes he can handle right now, but still again more of a GPP guy… he has at least 41 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. Alperen Sengun hasn’t been in the best form as of late but is a fine option if you land on him to round out rosters. Jabari Smith has come down to Earth a bit after going on the heater about a week and a half ago, with this team mostly healthy he’s a GPP-only guy while we can probably put KJ Martin and Tari Eason in that boat as well. From the Knicks, Jalen Brunson comes into this one as questionable after missing their last game, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’ll be good to go here. The matchup is great against a terrible Rockets defense and will look like a nice option in all formats. I like the price tag a good amount on Julius Randle, he dropped 64.5 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. That game was without Brunson as well, so take it with a grain of salt. We can jump off of the Immanuel Quickley train if Brunson is good to go but will look solid in a starting role if he’s out again. Guys like Josh Hart and RJ Barrett are fine secondary options who would see a boost if Brunson were to miss. Lastly, Mitchell Robinson’s minutes are trending in the right direction, and feels slightly underpriced in a great matchup.
5-star play: Julius Randle
4-star play: Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson, Josh Hart, RJ Barrett
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: KJ Martin, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith, Josh Hart, RJ Barrett
Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: Pho -6.5
Starting with the Suns, it sounds like Deandre Ayton will return in this one, so we can jump off of the Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale wagon. The matchup looks great for him and is averaging 57.1 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Jazz this season. Devin Booker is playing all the minutes he can handle right now and is going to look like a strong option on this slate as well if you can’t quite get up to these top-tier big men. Chris Paul has been in solid form as well and the price tag is pretty fair in a great matchup. Then guys like Josh Okogie and Torrey Craig are filler pieces that I won’t likely get a whole lot of. From the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen missed their last few games while Jordan Clarkson has missed their last few games. I’ll operate under the assumption Markkanen is back while Clarkson remains out. Markkanen had a massive game against the Blazers before missing these past couple of games, he’s a strong option in all formats. Talen Horton-Tucker has picked up the slack as the playmaker in this offense since Clarkson went down, but his minutes are all over the place along with his production. Walker Kessler dropped a 50-burger last time out against the Kings and will look good even in a tougher matchup with Ayton down low. Kelly Olynyk has been in great form and is a guy I like going back to again here especially if Markkanen does end up getting ruled out. Lastly, Simone Fontecchio would head back to the bench if Markkanen returns but would make sense as a secondary option if he’s out again.
5-star play: Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton
4-star play: Chris Paul, Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Kelly Olynyk
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Josh Okogie, Torrey Craig, Simone Fontecchio, Talen Horton-Tucker
Philadelphia 76ers @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Den -5.0
Starting with the Sixers, James Harden has missed their last handful of games and comes into this game as questionable. Keep an eye on our Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock. but I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays and has been in good form when out there, but if he’s out, the rest of this lineup sees a pretty nice boost but the price tags are starting to catch up with them. Due to this, guys like Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, and Tyrese Maxey are really only in play for me if he’s ruled out. Joel Embiid is going to look great here as well, Jokic isn’t as great of a defender as most people like to think… in fact, Embiid dropped 87.5 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to look like a top spend-up option on the slate as well. He has at least 60 FanDuel points in two of his last three games and is a guy that will look great in this spot. I don’t have any issues with Jamal Murray either, he finally bounced back into that 50 fantasy point range last time out. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. are similar options at similar price tags, Porter Jr. has actually been in better form over the last couple of weeks, but the ceiling is there on both of them. Then we can round this team out with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as a roster-filling piece, but he’s not a guy we need to prioritize by any means.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, James Harden, Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey, De’Anthony Melton, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
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Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 241.0
Vegas Spread: Sac -4.0
Starting with the Wolves, both Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns played last night and should be good to go again tonight. We’ll start with Edwards, he had a rough game last night and is going to take a hit to his rates with Towns back in there, he’s more of a tournament guy until his price tag falls a bit more. Towns played 32 minutes which was great to see and I would think he’s not going to be limited moving forward and will look great in a fast-paced game against a bad defense. Rudy Gobert has been extremely consistent as of late and the price tag on him isn’t too bad, I think he looks like a nice center option in all formats. Mike Conley has at least 52 DraftKings points in two of his last four but probably takes a hit with Towns and Edwards back in there. Then I’ll probably jump off of the Jaden McDaniels boat with these guys back, but Kyle Anderson kept motoring last time out and is never a sexy option but it’s hard to ignore his production. From the Kings, Domantas Sabonis has been in great form as of late and feels slightly too cheap in a great matchup here. De’Aaron Fox is averaging 45 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Wolves this season. He ended up missing their last game and is someone we’ll have to keep an eye on heading up to lock. Kevin Huerter kept it rolling last time out and now has at least 49 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, he’s another guy that will be hard to ignore in his price range. He’s a solid secondary option along with these other mid-range guys such as Harrison Barnes and Keegan Murray. Then we can round this team out with Malik Monk as a tournament option.
5-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns, Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: Anthony Edwards, Mike Conley, Rudy Gobert, De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Anthony Edwards, Kyle Anderson, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, Malik Monk
New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Nop -10.5
Starting with the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram is my preferred option between him and CJ McCollum, but both guys are nice options in an elite matchup. Ingram has been in great form with at least 55 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. Jonas Valanciunas has at least 44 DraftKings points in five straight games and has seen his minutes trending in the right direction, he’s a nice option in all formats. Then guys like Trey Murphy and Herb Jones make sense as filler pieces to round out your rosters. Murphy has the ability to get hot from three-point range on any given night, he knocked down 10 of them last time out. From the Blazers, I would imagine they throw in the white flag moving forward and have a similar situation as we saw last night where they listed Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant, Jusuf Nurkic, and Anfernee Simons as out. I would expect to see guys like Ryan Arcidiacano, Shaedon Sharpe, Trendon Watford, and Drew Eubanks back in the starting lineup and opens up a ton of usage and minutes on the bench as well. Cam Reddish would be my favorite option off of the bench, but this is a great matchup for this whole team, so there are some nice options here. I wish Keon Johnson saw more minutes, he takes a bit of a hit with the price jump he saw.
5-star play: Brandon Ingram, Shaedon Sharpe
4-star play: CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Trendon Watford, Drew Eubanks, Cam Reddish
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Matisse Thybulle, Ryan Arcidiancano, Keon Johnson
Chicago Bulls @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 221.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -4.0
Starting with the Bulls, Zach LaVine has been pretty consistent as of late and is playing all of the minutes he can handle. I like going right back to the well with him in this one. DeMar DeRozan bounced back nicely last time out and is someone I like as a secondary option as well. Nikola Vucevic was ejected last time out which is why the game log is so ugly. I like this as a bounce-back spot against a below-average Clippers frontcourt. Coby White has been sneaky great with at least 33 DraftKings points in three of his last five and has been seeing good minutes. Then guys like Patrick Beverley and Patrick Williams are fine secondary options as roster fillers. From the Clippers, Paul George is going to miss the next few weeks with a knee injury, below is how this team operates with him off of the court over the last four weeks:
- Russell Westbrook – 31.0% usage rate; 1.06 fpm (small sample)
- Eric Gordon – 21.2% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
- Kawhi Leonard – 31.2% usage rate; 1.39 fpm
- Marcus Morris – 13.1% usage rate; 0.53 fpm
- Ivica Zubac – 14.2% usage rate; 1.19 fpm
Kawhi and Westbrook are the big standouts as they’ll be the guy’s with the ball in their hands more often with George off of the court, I don’t love the price tag on Westbrook, but he makes sense as a tournament option. I do like Gordon and Morris as secondary options as well as they likely see some additional shots. I should mention Bones Hyland as well who has seen at least 24 minutes in back-to-back games and is always a nice per-minute option.
5-star play: Kawhi Leonard
4-star play: Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Coby White, Patrick Beverley, Patrick Williams, Marcus Morris, Eric Gordon, Russell Westbrook, Ivica Zubac, Bones Hyland
NBA Lock of the Day: Shaedon Sharpe (DK – $6.2k; FD – $7.2k)
I’m going right back to the well with Sharpe here assuming the Blazers wave the white flag and rule out Dame, Nurkic, Grant, and Simons again. He has at least 34 DraftKings/31 FanDuel points in three straight games and will play all the minutes he can handle in a nice matchup. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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