Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 2/24:
Jan 2, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) celebrates after scoring 71 points to set the franchise record as the Cavaliers beat the Chicago Bulls at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
New York Knicks @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Was -1.0
We’ll kick this slate off with the Knicks, it sounds like they may get Mitchell Robinson back in this one so we can stop messing around with the Jericho Sims and Isaiah Hartenstein rotation, but he still does come in as questionable and I would expect him to be on a minutes restriction if he’s able to give it a go. Josh Hart has been great since coming over from the Blazers, he’s not playing as many minutes but he’s performing extremely well. His price tag hasn’t really moved and looks like a solid option in all formats. Julius Randle has seen his production come down a bit as Brunson has taken control of this offense, but we know he’s going to continue to play all the minutes he can handle in a great matchup. Speaking of Jalen Brunson he has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and gets a great matchup in this one. Then, RJ Barrett bounced back slightly in their final game before the break, he’s more of a secondary GPP guy for me at this point. From the Wizards, Bradley Beal comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him as we get closer to lock, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here for the sake of this article. He was in great form before the break and playing minutes in the mid-30’s, I would have no issue going right back to him in this one. Kristaps Porzingis is more of a tournament guy at this price tag unless Beal were to sit, he’s priced as if one of Beal or Kuzma is out because let’s face it, more often than not, that’s the case. Then we get to the final piece of this big three if you want to call it that, Kyle Kuzma has shown signs of upside as of late and the price tag is pretty nice, I think he looks like a nice option in all formats. Deni Avdija isn’t really a guy I want to get too much of if all three of these guys are healthy and available, but Daniel Gafford should continue to start and look like a solid option in all formats.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, Josh Hart, Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Daniel Gafford
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: RJ Barrett, Deni Avdija, Daniel Gafford, Monte Morris
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -1.5
Starting with the Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell has at least 53 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and is a guy I have no issue going right back to here in hopes he can keep the heater rolling. The price tag on Darius Garland has come down to a much more playable number and the matchup is great against this Hawks backcourt defense. Evan Mobley bounced back in a big way last night in a tough matchup against that Denver interior, he’s going to look like a nice option in all formats again in this one. Then Jarrett Allen has been much better over his last handful of games as well, he’ll be right there with Mobley in that mid-to-high range, but I like the price tag on Allen much more. From the Hawks, it feels odd that they’re favored in this one after they just fired their head coach and feels like there is some locker room drama going on… but we’ll roll with the punches. Trae Young kept it rolling last time out but gets a tough matchup with this Cavs defense in this one. He’s in play in all formats but I would prefer him in tournaments just due to the matchup. Dejounte Murray isn’t a guy I love at this price tag when Young is in there, on a big slate like this I can’t imagine I get to a whole lot of him. Clint Capela has been good over his last few but the minutes are in that 25 range where I’d prefer them to be around 30 which makes him more of a secondary option, although the price tag is nice. I do think they’ll need his size with John Collins out and the Cavs have a big frontcourt, so I think we could see 30+ minutes making him look like a strong option in all formats. Bogdan Bogdanovic hasn’t been great in his last couple, but obviously, the minutes should be there if you happen to land on him at a cheap price tag. Then guys like De’Andre Hunter and Saddiq Bey will help fill the Collins role and make sense as GPP options as well to round out this team.
5-star play: Donovan Mitchell
4-star play: Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Trae Young, Clint Capela
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dejounte Murray, De’Andre Hunter, Saddiq Bey, Bogdan Boganovic
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -1.5
Starting with the Heat, they’ll get Tyler Herro back in this one as he returns to his home state. The price tag is nice on him and has a skill set that gives the Bucks issues or at least a skill set that the Bucks will concede on any given night. Jimmy Butler has been a bit underwhelming from a fantasy standpoint this season but is another guy that has routes in the Milwaukee area with going to Marquette and all that jazz. He’s averaging 34.9 DraftKings poitns per game in three games against the Bucks this season. Bam Adebayo has performed the best of the three and will benefit from Giannis being out as well. He’ll still have to deal with Lopez’s defense, but he’s a nice option in all formats. Then guys like Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Victor Oladipo will continue to fill the void left by Kyle Lowry, but I think we can do better on this slate. I do think Kevin Love is interesting at the dead minimum on DraftKings and under $4k on FanDuel. They just signed him after the Cavs bought him out, so I would imagine they want to get him some run and get acclimated with this offense. From the Bucks, they’ll be without Giannis Antetokounmpo and Pat Connaughton while getting Bobby Portis, Jae Crowder, and Joe Ingles back. I would not expect to see full run for Crowder for quite a while, so he’s not a guy I want to get to and I wouldn’t think they want to push Portis right away either as he gets eased back from injury. Below is how this team operates with Giannis off of the court this season:
- Jrue Holiday – 31.6% usage rate; 1.35 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 19.1% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Khris Middleton – 37.4% usage rate; 1.40 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 23.6% usage rate; 1.25 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 21.1% usage rate; 1.05 fpm
It would not shock me if we see Middleton back in the starting lineup, he’s going to be a guy I get a good amount of especially if we get that news before lock. He’s a guy that will help Jrue run the offense any time Giannis is out and is flatly too cheap right now, he’s looked great in limited minutes as well. The Bucks did sign Meyers Leonard after he was out of the league for some derogatory comments made on a live stream. That seems to be in his past and is on a 10-day contract, so he should see minutes and it’s a good time to do so with Giannis out and these other guys being worked back in. My main focal points are Jrue, Middleton, and Lopez, with that said.
5-star play: Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton
4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, Brook Lopez, Grayson Allen
Deeper Value: Kevin Love, Meyers Leonard
GPP Sleeper: Gabe Vincent, Victor Oladipo, Max Strus, Joe Ingles, Bobby Portis, Jevon Carter
Brooklyn Nets @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: Chi -2.0
Starting with the Nets, Ben Simmons comes in as questionable, but he’s essentially their third-string center right now, so I don’t think it entirely matters. Spencer Dinwiddie has been thrown into a large role as expected on this team and is in charge of running the offense. He’s not a guy I want to build my roster around, but the matchup and price both are appealing. Mikal Bridges had an absolutely monstrous game before the break and is clearly going to play a role in this offense as well, he saw a price increase for good reason and makes sense as a secondary option. Cam Thomas has moved back to the bench which takes him out of play for me at this price tag. The price tag on Nicolas Claxton has come down but so has his production and minutes making him more of a GPP option. Cam Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith have been fine since making their Nets’ debut but not guys I think we need to prioritize by any means. From the Bulls, they should get DeMar DeRozan back after missing a few games before the break which means we go back to trying to break down this big three. Generally at least one of DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, and Zach LaVine will have a big game and generally one will have a bad game, but good luck determining which that will be. I’ve been getting the most exposure to the cheapest of the three and I think that’s the best way to attack it. The rest of this team isn’t anything I think we need to prioritize on a big slate, if you get to guys like Patrick Williams or Alex Caruso, fine.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Mikal Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie, Nicolas Claxton, Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Cam Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Cam Thomas, Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso
Charlotte Hornets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 242.0
Vegas Spread: Min -7.0
Starting with the Hornets, they’re expected to get Terry Rozier and Kelly Oubre back in this one. Oubre has been out for nearly three months, so I would expect he’s on a heavy minutes restriction and would be a fade for me right away. LaMelo Ball has at least 52 DraftKings points in four straight games but has seen his price tag come way up. I still think he’s in play as a spend-up option, but there is some sticker shock there. Terry Rozier has shown some nice consistency as of late as well and makes sense in all formats as a roster filler. Mark Williams has continued to start with Mason Plumlee traded and his price tag is starting to reflect that. He is a great per-minute producer and is a solid option yet again in this one. PJ Washington has been in great form as well and is playing big minutes, he’ll make sense in all formats. Then Gordon Hayward is in the same boat, not quite as great, but he’s flashed some nice upside since the trade deadline. From the Wolves, Rudy Gobert and Kyle Anderson sound like they’re good to go after the long break. I’m going to continue to hammer Gobert even with his price tag up, he’s a sneaky massive benefactor of the team trading D’Angelo Russell out of town. Reports were that Russell just refused to give him the ball while Mike Conley has played with him in the past and knows how to run an offense with him… he’s going to be a guy I’m all over in this one. We’ve seen him benefit with Conley in there already. Speaking of Mike Conley, I have no issue going right back to him as well, the price tag is nice and we know the consistency will be there. Anthony Edwards has shown a bit more volatility as of late but has at least 50 FanDuel points in two of his last five games. Then we can round the team out with Jaden McDaniels who makes sense as a GPP option at the forward position.
5-star play: LaMelo Ball, Rudy Gobert
4-star play: Terry Rozier, PJ Washington, Gordon Hayward, Mark Williams, Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Anderson, Jaden McDaniels
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 232.5
Vegas Spread: Gsw -9.5
Starting with the Rockets, they’ll be without Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green again in this one. I think there’s a chance we see TyTy Washington enter the starting lineup as the main point guard with these guys out, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed. Below is how this team operates with these two off of the court this season:
- TyTy Washington – 18.7% usage rate; 0.76 fpm
- Jae’Sean Tate – 21.9% usage rate; 0.74 fpm
- KJ Martin – 17.8% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- Jabari Smith – 21.7% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- Alperen Sengun – 23.1% usage rate; 1.28 fpm
Sengun is my clear favorite option in a great matchup with the Warriors but there are some nice pieces in this starting lineup and I think Tari Eason makes sense off of the bench as well, they’ve shown a willingness to give him some extended run as of late. From the Warriors, it sounds like Andrew Wiggins will be out along with Steph Curry in this one. I would expect to see Donte DiVincenzo back in the starting lineup as we saw against the Lakers last night. Jordan Poole wasn’t good last night and his price tag came down to reflect that. This is a great bounce-back spot however, I think he looks like a nice option in all formats. Klay Thompson had a rough game last time out but has a 27.9% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute with Wiggins and Curry off of the court this season. Draymond Green is rarely a guy I prioritize but is a fine option to round out your roster construction if you land on him. Lastly, I would expect Kevon Looney to stick in the starting lineup and he has at least 29 DraftKings points in four straight games.
5-star play: Alperen Sengun, Jordan Poole
4-star play: KJ Martin, Jabari Smith, Tari Eason, Jae’Sean Tate, Klay Thompson, Kevon Looney, Draymond Green
Deeper Value: TyTy Washington
GPP Sleeper: TyTy Washington, Tari Eason, Donte DiVincenzo, Jonathan Kuminga
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -7.5
Starting with the Thunder, Lu Dort returned to seeing his full minutes last night, so I would expect that minutes restriction has been lifted. He has a nice price tag as well, he makes sense as a cheaper F option. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will continue to look like an elite spend-up option, he does take a hit to his rates with Dort back but he has at least 63 FanDuel points in two of his last five. Josh Giddey is fine as well, he’s generally not a guy I prioritize when SGA is available, but he makes sense as a roster filler. Then guys like Jalen Williams and Kenrich Williams are fine secondary options to round out this team. From the Suns, Devin Booker played 35 minutes in their last game before the All-Star break, so I would imagine he’s a full go here and will look like a great option against this Thunder defense. I do like going right back to Deandre Ayton, he has at least 45 DraftKings points in three of his last five and the matchup is elite. Chris Paul has shown some nice consistency as well and makes plenty of sense in all formats. Guys like Torrey Craig, Josh Okogie, and TJ Warren will need to play minutes with Bridges and Johnson out of town and Kevin Durant not quite ready. None of these guys are priorities, but make sense as roster fillers. Okogie has been sneaky great as of late with at least 31 DraftKings points in four straight and plays great defense so the minutes will be there.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Devin Booker
4-star play: Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, Deandre Ayton, Chris Paul, Josh Okogie
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Kenrich Williams, Torrey Craig, TJ Warren
Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: Lac -6.5
Starting with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis kept it rolling last night and gets a nice matchup again in this one, he has at least 56 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and looks like a nice option yet again here. The same can be said for De’Aaron Fox and should make for a fun game between him and Kawhi/George on the other end of this one as they look to run and gun. Then we get to the mid-range of this team which is very bunched together with guys like Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, Harrison Barnes, and Keegan Murray. I have no issue with any of these guys if you happened to land on them, but Huerter and Barnes make plenty of sense in cash games. From the Clippers, they’ll be without Ivica Zubac which should pave the way for Mason Plumlee to get his first start as a member of the Clippers. I think we can go right back to him and assume he absorbs the Zubac role at a nice price point. It sounds like Russell Westbrook will make his Clippers debut as well, it’ll be interesting to see if they throw him right into the starting lineup which is what I’m expecting, but regardless, he’s going to take away from the main pieces of this team. He’s extremely ball-dominant, so expect to see the rates for Kawhi Leonard and Paul George come down, all three of these guys will be guys I’m fine with fading tonight and seeing how this offense operates. Then guys like Eric Gordon and Norman Powell are fine GPP darts, but I think we can do better on this slate.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Mason Plumlee
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Norman Powell
NBA Lock of the Day: Khris Middleton (DK – $6.3k; FD – $6.0k)
This lock of the day is a little dependent on the starting lineup for the Bucks, but I’m going to operate under the assumption that we see Middleton back in the starting lineup tonight. He was on a hard minutes restriction before the break but looked great while he was out there and wasn’t on the injury report coming out of the break which makes me think we see him as a full-go here. The Bucks will be without Giannis in this one which makes him look even better. He has a 37.4% usage rate and 1.40 fantasy points per minute with Giannis off of the court this season and we’ve seen him have some massive games with Giannis out in years past. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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