Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 2/12:
Dec 28, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Pistons center Jalen Duren (0) dribbles defended by Orlando Magic forward Admiral Schofield (25) in the second half at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k last weekend while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Memphis Grizzlies @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -4.0
We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Grizzlies, they’ll continue to be without Steven Adams, so Xavier Tillman will remain in the starting lineup and has been in good form. I have no issue with going to him if you need a cheaper center option. It’s a tough matchup with Boston, but Ja Morant dropped 60 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season, on a short slate he’s going to look like a top option. Jaren Jackson didn’t play in that game, but the Celtics aren’t a great rebounding team, so the ceiling is certainly there. Desmond Bane has been extremely consistent all season long and makes sense as a secondary option as well, and his price tag actually came down. Brandon Clarke would be more of a GPP option due to the volatility in his minutes, but he has at least 26 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Then we can round this team out with Dillon Brooks as a punt play on a short slate… his production has not been good as of late. From the Celtics, they’ll continue to be without Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart meaning Sam Hauser probably stays in the starting lineup. Hauser has at least 22 DraftKings points in three straight and makes plenty of sense at this price tag. Below is how this team operates with Brown and Smart off of the court this season:
- Derrick White – 21.4% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- Sam Hauser – 15.8% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
- Jayson Tatum – 33.6% usage rate; 1.29 fpm
- Al Horford – 11.7% usage rate; 0.66 fpm
- Robert Williams – 11.4% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
This would be my anticipated starting lineup, but you can also get to Malcolm Brogdon off of the bench as well. The minutes are a bit more volatile off of the bench, but in what should be a competitive game he’ll look like a great option. Tatum is probably the top raw option on the slate, so if you can find the salary for him, do it. Then Derrick White had a massive game last time out, I don’t think I’ll chase that game, but it’s hard to ignore his production as of late.
5-star play: Ja Morant, Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Desmond Bane, Xavier Tillman, Jaren Jackson, Sam Hauser, Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams
Deeper Value: Sam Hauser
GPP Sleeper: Brandon Clarke, Dillon Brooks, Al Horford
Detroit Pistons @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Tor -12.0
Starting with the Pistons, I would not expect James Wiseman to be available for the Pistons as that trade still isn’t complete, so I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s out again in this one. Jalen Duren clearly had a fire lit under him by the Wiseman move because he went absolutely bonkers last time out and is far too cheap again in this one, he’ll look like a great option in all formats. I never really have a real lean on Bojan Bogdanovic, he’s always priced appropriately and needs to get hot from behind the arch to get you there. That said, I have no issue if you land on him at this price tag on a short slate. Jaden Ivey had a nice bounce-back game last time out as well and had an awful shooting game, he’s a guy I like going back to here as well. Killian Hayes has been re-inserted back into the starting lineup which helps his minutes and is a guy who makes sense in all formats. Then Isaiah Stewart had a big game last time out as well and now has at least 32 FanDuel points in three of his last five games. From the Raptors, Jakob Poeltl made his debut last time out by coming off of the bench. I would think at some point they throw him in the starting lineup, but until then he’s more of a tournament option. Pascal Siakam has at least 54 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and is a guy I like going back to in a great matchup against the Pistons. Fred VanVleet’s production has come down over the last few games but he’s still been in great form, I like going back to him in all formats. Scottie Barnes will continue to play all the minutes he can handle and is a nice roster filler with multi-position eligibility. The same can be said for Gary Trent Jr., the nice thing with the Raptors is the starters to see all the minutes they can handle on a nightly basis. Precious Achiuwa and Chris Boucher will take a bit of a hit with Poeltl on the team, but both have been in good form and saw good minutes last time out. As long as OG Anunoby is out, these guys will be firmly in play.
5-star play: Jalen Duren, Pascal Siakam
4-star play: Bojan Bogdanovic, Jaden Ivey, Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart, Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Alec Burks, Chris Boucher, Precious Achiuwa, Jakob Poeltl
NBA Lock of the Day: Jalen Duren (DK – $5.2k; FD – $5.7k)
Duren has a point to prove and he showed it last time out. The Pistons went out and got James Wiseman (not official yet), and essentially named him the starter before he even touched the Pistons’ facility. Duren took that and dominated the Spurs last time out. Wiseman won’t be available tonight, so I expect another big game from Duren at a cheap price tag. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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