Fantasy Football has evolved into a year-round game. Managers are fine tuning their draft skills with best ball contests starting as early as February. Average draft positions (ADP’s) are very sharp, and it can be hard to find an edge. Therefore, roster construction is very important. Drafting a quarterback early may seem like a luxury pick that simply isn’t worth it. So why are fantasy managers still drafting Josh Allen in round three of fantasy football drafts?
Jan 23, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) looks to pass as Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Frank Clark (55) defends during an AFC Divisional playoff football game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
The Case for Josh Allen
Josh Allen is being drafted as the first quarterback off the board in 2022 fantasy football drafts. Allen finished as the top QB in 2021 scoring an impressive 25 fantasy points per game. We rarely see a player repeat as the QB1 the following season but the case for Allen is compelling. Allen’s unique ability as an efficient passer and runner is the formula for fantasy gold.
In 2021 Josh Allen was near the league lead in Pass Attempts (645), Red Zone Attempts (129), Air Yards (5,583), and Air Yards per Attempt (8.7). Allen also differentiated himself through his ability as a rusher. He averaged 7.2 carries per game in 2021 including 32 red zone carriers. Those numbers may decline if rookie running back James Cook proves to be a reliable receiver out of the backfield but rushing will always be a part of Allen’s game.
Bills Mafia Rejoice
The Bills are expected to be one of the top offenses in the NFL and have a solid list of pass catchers to support Allen. Stefon Diggs enters his third year as a Bill and will profile as the top talent. He earned 26.3% of targets in 2021 and we expect a similar opportunity share this season. Diggs is in an elite tier of wide receivers and is a true difference maker on offense.
Gabriel Davis is widely believed to be a breakout candidate entering his third year in the league. He will move into the WR 2 position following the departure of Emmanuel Sanders. Allen showed trust in Davis in 2021 which reached the crescendo in the playoff game against Kansas City where he caught four TD passes. Davis’ core numbers weren’t that impressive in 2021 but he was efficient when targeted. He averaged 15.7 yards per reception with an average target distance of 13.4 yards. In addition, 13 of his 63 targets were deep targets.
Strong Depth of Players
Jamison Crowder joins the receiver room to replace Cole Beasley out of the slot. Crowder has struggled with injuries the last few years but proved to be a reliable chain mover when healthy. He played 67% of snaps out of the slot in 2021. Expect this number to increase he is deployed like Beasley who ran 82% of snaps out of the slot in 2021 and received 7 targets/ game. The rookie Khalil Shakir would be given the opportunity in the event Crowder can’t stay healthy. Shakir, who was drafted in round 5, profiles like other shifty players such as Golden Tate and Christian Kirk.
Dawson Knox took another step forward as a playmaker in 2021 scoring 9 total touchdowns on an 18% red zone target share. The Bills also drafted the pass-catching RB James Cook who they drafted in round 2 of the NFL draft. The Bills have been looking for a reliable pass-catching back and believe they found that player in the rookie.
Check out the full video on the 2022 Top 12 Quarterbacks in Fantasy Football.
Should you jump though a table to draft Allen?
Josh Allen carries a heavy price early in draft season. He is currently being drafted in the middle of round 3 which is a full round ahead of the QB 2, Justin Herbert. The upside and stability of Allen makes him a tantalizing pick but is still too high a price to justify drafting. Players such as Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray all possess similar weekly upside and season-long stability. They are being drafted between 2-3 rounds later than Allen and allow you to draft elite talents at other positions in round 3. Wide receivers you can draft in that range include Keenan Allen, Mike Williams or Michael Pittman. If you prefer RB or TE you can snag Javonte Williams, Alvin Kamara, James Connor or Kyle Pitts.
With the depth at quarterback this season you can realistically wait and draft a safe player such as Russell Wilson or Matthew Stafford in rounds 8 or 9. If you want to get an edge at the quarterback position, the sweet spot of the draft is between rounds 5-6. Sorry Bills Mafia. We don’t advocate paying round 3 draft capital for Josh Allen.
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