Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the MLB staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines could change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our MLB Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…
PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Jun 25, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Miles Mikolas (39) pitches against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Miles Mikolas O 27.5fpt
STL vs CIN
Miles Mikolas is not flashy but he just knows how to pitch. He does not have strikeout stuff. However, he does not walk many batters and keeps the ball in the ballpark. Mikolas limits hard hits with his pinpoint control to induce weak contact. This makes him efficient so he is able to record all these quality starts. He gets a matchup against the Reds today at home. It will be 90 degrees with 10mph winds blowing out but this is a pitcher’s ballpark and the Reds are not a good offense especially when playing on the road. Most of their lineup consists of righties. Mikolas has a 3% higher K rate against RHBs than LHBs at 21.3%. St. Louis is elite when taking on a LHP. Nick Lodolo has been great but this is a tough spot for him. I expect Mikolas to be in line for the win and quality start but at 27.5, he probably does not even need the win to hit the over.
Luis Arraez O 6.5fpt
MIN vs CWS
Lance Lynn missed the first two months of the season. He has been extremely unlucky since his return. Lynn has a 6.97ERA but a 3.92xERA. However, his expected hitting stats allowed are far worse than what he has allowed in his past seasons. He continues to struggle against LHBs. Lynn is allowing a .377wOBA and .179ISO to LHBs and only striking out 13.9% of them. Arraez does not strike out (7.4% vs RHPs) so that is not a concern. He is hitting .372 against righties on the season. Arraez has been one of the better hitters this year. He will leadoff for a Twins team that has a 116wRC+ against RHPs which ranks 4th in the league. Lynn only has a 6.3% walk rate but Arraez has a 10.3% walk rate. If he does not get a chance to swing the bat, a walk and a run scored will still be huge for him to hit the over. This line should be 7.5.
Starling Marte G2 O 6.5fpt
NYM @ CHC
These two teams are playing a doubleheader today. Make sure you are taking Marte’s game 2 against Drew Smyly. Marte used to be a reverse splits player. This season, he is batting .337 against lefites and .274 against righties. The power is there as well as Marte has 4HRs in less than half the ABs compared to 5HRs against righties. With these numbers, even when the Cubs bring in a righty, Marte can still have good ABs against righties if he has not hit the over yet. Smyly is a lefty but struggles to hold base runners. Since 2019, he has allowed 34 stolen basses and caught 11 for a 76% steal success rate. Marte only has 10SBs this season but is known to be one of the top base stealers in the league. Willson Contreras has an elite poptime but that cannot always make up for a pitcher’s slow delivery time. Catchers do not catch in both games of a doubleheader so Contreras very well could be at DH or even out. Marte is in a good hitting spot but the stolen base upside makes this an even better play.
Anthony Rizzo O 1.5h+bb / O 7fpt
NYY vs BOS
These Red Sox and Yankees games seem to always bring some offensive fireworks. The Yankees will be at home putting Rizzo in front of that short porch in right. New York will be taking on Nick Pivetta. He is not a bad pitcher but this is a tough lineup to navigate through and the ballpark does not do him any favors. Pivetta is allowing a 46.2% hard hit rate which puts him in the 7th percentile. He struggles to keep the ball on the ground as he has a 34.8% groundball rate. This could be a problem with this hitter-friendly stadium. Pivetta has a 8.4% walk rate this season but it is at 11.3% against LHBs. Rizzo has a 11.2% walk rate overall, 11.9% vs RHPs. He has not had many multi-hit games this season but the walks sure do make up for that. Pivetta throws a fastball, curve, and slider to LHBs. Rizzo has 5, 7, and 1 run values against those pitches so he hits all three well. Pivetta has a 7 run value on his curve which means that pitch has not been good for him. I side with the h+bb play but I think his fantasy score is good as well.
Will Smith O 1.5h+bb
LAD @ LAA
The Angels sometimes use openers. We might need to revisit this but I think Smith will be a good play regardless of who starts here. Jose Suarez is the projected starter. He is a lefty who has struggled quite a bit against RHBs. Suarez has allowed a .351wOBA, .192ISO, 42.7% flyball rate, 39.6% hard hit rate, and 10.9% walk rate to righties. Will Smith has a 12.7% walk rate against LHPs. He is hitting .339 against that side of the plate too. Suarez relies on a fastball, changeup, and curve against righties. Smith has run values of 0, 2, and 5 respectively against these three pitch types. He used to be a reverse splits hitter but has really improved against LHPs this season. The Dodgers are the away team so they will bat in the top of the 9th regardless which could give Smith an extra AB. Suarez does not go deep but the Angels bullpen has been struggling. This Dodgers offense looks to be in a great spot tonight.
Just missed the cut: Teoscar O 1.5h+bb, PIT/COL YRFI
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
Now for the bonus… If you are new to PrizePicks, they will match your 1st deposit up to $100! You double your money and get a free month of a DFS Army VIP subscription too!
DFS Army Free Month Offer Here
