Is CMC The Best Pick for Fantasy Football In 2022?

DFS Army’s Gthom breaks down Christian McCaffrey and whether he’s still the best pick for fantasy football. Follow Gthom on the cesspool they call twitter @GarettThomas.

Reasons to Draft at 1.01

Christian McCaffrey (CMC) needs no introduction. Since his rookie season he has been a PPR machine for fantasy football managers. His two-way ability to run the football and catch passes really sets him apart from all other backs.

In 2018 and 2019 he scored 332 (#3 overall) and 413.2-fantasy points (#1 overall), respectively. He did this on the back of volume and finding the end zone for touchdowns as well.

During his injury plagued years (2020 – ’21) CMC’s role and efficiency remained in tack for elite greatness. In 2020 he logged 25.3 opportunities per game. That number dropped in 2021 (which is no surprise) to 19.4 opportunities per game.

Christian McCaffrey has missed time due to injury, but when he has been healthy he is a fantasy god

Last 3 Seasons
😮Top 12 Games – 87%
😱Top 5 Games – 73%
😍Top 2 Overall Games – 48%
🏆Fantasy PPG – 28.2

Fading due to injury risk is being certain about the uncertain. pic.twitter.com/R28kDZxuFE

— Eliot Crist 🏆 (@EliotCrist) July 15, 2022

There has been no indication that his role will be reduced. It feels like a safe assumption that McCaffrey will still see 17 – 19 touches per game in 2022. That many touches justifies him being the best pick for fantasy football.

Currently I am projecting McCaffrey to see a slight decrease in his workload. Even with a slight reduction, he is projected to log 80 receptions, 230 carries, 1764.5 yards from scrimmage and 13 total touchdowns for 2022.

Reasons to Fade at 1.01

There is not much to complain about McCaffrey outside of his injury history, especially now that Carolina’s QB is a competent one. But is Baker Mayfield (QB, CAR) for real? On paper, no he is not. There is a scenario where we may see Mayfield benched. While Mayfield guided the Browns to their first playoff victory since 1995, Mayfield never threw for 30 touchdowns or 4,000 yards in a single-season. He featured QBR’s of 51.2, 54.4, 65.5 and 35.1 in his Cleveland tenure.

Head coach, Matt Rhule, is on the hot seat too. Rhule will deploy everything to save his job, should it come down to it. If Mayfield struggles to win games it may open the door for rookie quarterback Matt Corral, and fast. That does leave a slight bit of offensive uncertainty for the Panthers and McCaffrey.

Examining CMC’s injuries, 2020 and 2021 were huge disappointments for McCaffrey. The former Stanford product combined to play 10 games from 2020 – ’21. This assuredly left a sour taste in fantasy stakeholders’ mouth because he was selected first overall in fantasy drafts during 2020 – ’21.

What’s a worst case scenario for a fantasy manager? Their first overall pick being lost for the entire season. Your first two fantasy draft picks should be the anchor of your team, not your downfall. If you are looking to avoid players with a consistent injury history, draft Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND) or Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR) first overall instead of CMC.

The Panthers also signed D’Onta Foreman from the Titans as added depth behind McCaffrey. Forman is an elite RB2 for most NFL teams and it remains unclear how much volume Foreman will siphon from CMC. While it is less than ideal to imagine Foreman taking a significant role in this offense, it is another factor you should consider if you believe the Panthers will police McCaffrey’s health.

Compared to the other players ranked around the former fantasy stud, McCaffrey poses a greater risk due to his injury history.

The Verdict

When he is healthy there is no better player for fantasy football, in PPR formats, than CMC; whether or not you can appetite the injury risk will determine if he is on your roster with the first pick.

MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL ANALYSIS FROM GTHOM