UFC Austin DraftKings DFS Free Picks

UFC Austin DraftKings DFS  Free Picks

DraftKings UFC Austin DFS Free Picks

Turd of the Week

De Paula ($9,200) Vs. Oliveira (7,000)

This one could end up being a striking affair that ends in a decision that does not score well. Over 2.5 is -305, and neither fighter shows a lot of wrestling and TDs, so a fight on the feet leading to a decision is likely.

That said, this one makes the turd of the week and will be getting faded or have each fighter 5% or lower across 200 lineups.

Pick: De Paula $9,200

Four Favorite Fighters

• Kattar $8900
• Lauzon $7900 
• Marquez $7700
• Daukas $8700

UFC Austin DraftKings DFS Free Picks

Four Fights To Target:

Kattar (8900) Vs. Emmett (7400)

Vegas Odds: Katter -230, Emmett +195

I have been going back and forth with Marley on this one, and despite my better judgment, I will do a little differently from what Marley suggested. By this, I mean I will be going all-in on the main event. Eight of the last ten UFC Slates have had the main event in the nuts lineup. Therefore I like the odds of this one doing the same.

Specifically, Emmett will likely win by KO IF he can get a win, which is not expected. Furthermore, I will be picking Kattar to hit the -200 Decision prop and generate some volume in the process. Regardless of the winner, I think this will score well, especially per price point, as neither fighter is 9k.

Fight Night Pick: Kattar

Buckley ($7,600) Vs. Duraev ($8,600)

Vegas Odds: Buckley +195, Duraev +120

I like the Buckley +330 KO/TKO/DQ prop, which, if hit at $8,600, would produce a proficient score related to Draftkings UFC DFS scoring. On the other side, Duraev is the more technical fighter who is the rightful favorite. More than likely, Duraev takes down Buckley multiple times on his way to hitting the +250 Decision prop he carries.

I will ensure I get ownership on both fighters at elevated ownership because I think, either way, the fighters will score well. I will be more invested in Duraev as I am confident in his ability to get a win here.

Fight Night Pick: Duraev $8,600

 

Cerrone (8300) Vs. Lauzon (7900) 

Vegas Odds: Cerrone -165, Lauzon +140

Cerrone has lost three fights, and we are getting dog money on Lauzon. Also, the fight is +110 to end in KO/TKO/DQ with a +115 on the under 1.5. Therefore, either fighter can pay well per dollar considering the price tags, as Cerrone averages 108 over his last three wins; the last one was in 2019!!

Furthermore, Lauzon has not won since his last fight in 2019 but did land a KO/TKO showcasing his upside as a dog in this spot. Both fighters are coming off long layoffs and have not been impressive in most recent outings. When this happens, I look at the value to decide I get more weight.

The Beauty of GPP

While I am picking Lauzon for the value, I will split this fight 50-50 in terms of ownership, and I may go all-in on this fight instead of the main event. This will depend on ownership projections and further research, but I like this fight regardless of the winner.

Pick: Lauzon $7,900

Marquez ($7,700) Vs. Rodrigues ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Marquez (+150), Rodrigues (-175)

I like Geek’s take on the Cheat Sheet for this one, which has all of his, Marley, and EricF’s picks for the cards and why they like or dislike them. (Sign Up using DFLGENO for 10% off):

This is one of the fights to get heavier exposure to. Marquez is strict and has a solid submission game. G-Rod is better pretty much everywhere else. ITD odds of -205 is a 65% implied probability of a finish inside the distance. Marquez is a live dog

Fight Night Pick: Rodrigues $8,500

Check out the full card breakdown with the DFS Optimizer strategy below (VIP Content):

UFC Austin Full Breakdown and Preview

Reference:

Cheat Sheets.

Research Station

Happy hunting, everyone, and thank you for reading!!!

Thanks for hanging in, and feel free to reach out with any questions!

Talk to me! I am in the discord 24/7 and value connecting with people.

Twitter: @therealgc9

Pricing for DFS Army VIP
Coupon Code for 10% off DFLGENO

DraftKings UFC 275 DFS Picks and Preview