MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from the previous day’s picks)
- Kyle Wright (8 FD, -0.10 DK)
- Brad Keller (11 FD, 2.75 DK)
- Mike Clevinger (25 FD, 12.95 DK)
- Justin Verlander (49 FD, 30.2 DK)
- Lucas Giolito (43 FD, 23.55 DK)
- Aaron Nola (22 FD, 10 DK)
- Garrett Whitlock (15 FD, 5.95 DK)
- Jesus Luzardo (14 FD, 6.4 DK)
- Corey Kluber (-5 FD, -11.85 DK)
- Robbie Ray (47 FD, 30.35 DK)
MAIN MLB DFS Slate (7 games)
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Tylor Megill (10k FD, 9.9k DK) @ WSH
Washington’s offense hasn’t been bad against RHP and they strikeout under 20% of the time against them in the last 2 weeks. Megill though has been really good this year for the Mets. He’s getting just over a strikeout per inning right now this year and has allowed more than 3 ER in just 1 start this year. Last time out against ATL he allowed 3 ER, but was able to rack up 9 strikeouts. So far this year he has 5 of his 6 starts over 34 FD points. He faced Washington on Opening Day and struck out 6 over 5 innings allowing just 5 hits. I wish he made it 6+ more, but he tends to throw a lot of pitches early in the game. If he can keep his walks down and be more efficient, he could make it 6 innings for the QS.
Shohei Ohtani (10.8k FD, 8.8k DK) vs TBR
Ohtani comes into this game coming off his last start where he struck out 11 Red Sox over 7 innings nad looked really good in the win. After getting no0-hit last night, the Rays will likely come out swinging here. This is good for Ohtani because he has some great strikeout stuff. TB comes into this game with a 25% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks. Ohtani has been lights out against RHB so far this year, allowing just a .155 wOBA and .127 batting average, striking out 26 in 15.2 innings. Lefties have had a little more success against him, with a wOBA of .377. If Ohtani can shut down the few lefties the Rays have, he should have another good game here.
May 5, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Los Angeles Angels designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) prepares to pitch against the Boston Red Sox during the seventh inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Shane McClanahan (10.3k FD, 10.2k DK) @ LAA
McClanahan has been really good for the Rays this season. He’s only gone over 6 innings twice though. The strikeouts have been there for him too. He’s actually been really good against RHB so far this year allowing just a .258 wOBA and has 40 strikeouts over 28 innings. He hasn’t allowed more than 6 hits in any start so far this year. The Angels have a ton of power, but can tend to strikeout a good amount. Over the last month against LHP, the Angels have a 23.5% strikeout rate. If he can limit homeruns, he should have a good start here.
Zach Logue (7k FD, 7.1k DK) @ DET
This series is a series of offenses who are not good. Detroit is really struggling lately. Logue made his first MLB start last time out against the Twins and was actually pretty solid. He struck out 5 over 5 innings and allowed just 2 solo home runs. Logue was a prospect that the A’s got in the Matt Chapman trade from the Blue Jays. Looking at his 2021 stats, he was striking out a ton of hitters, over a K per inning. He’s improved his velocity and has a nice 4 pitch mix. He added a cutter last season that was much better. Deceptive delivery should help him here and DET has a 23.3% strikeout rate against LHP with little power.
Joey Wentz (5.8k FD, 5.3k DK) vs OAK
A guy making his MLB debut here for the Tigers is a touted prospect in their organization. WIth all the SP injuries, he’s getting the call tonight against Oakland. He’s dirt cheap on both sites too. We don’t know how much we will get out of him, but OAK has a 28.9% strikeout rate against LHP in the last month while hitting just .190. He can rack up strikeouts as he had 26 in 19 innings in the minor leagues. He did miss the 2020 season with Tommy John surgery, we don’t know what to expect here. He doesn’t have over-powering stuff, but has good command of his changeup and a little odd delivery. I don’t expect him to go long in his MLB debut, but he has a good matchup against Oakland.
Nathan Eovaldi (9k FD, 9,4k DK) @ ATL
Starting here for the Red Sox, Eovaldi has been pretty good for the Sox this season. He has not allowed more than 3 runs in a start this year. The Braves come into this game striking out a good amount against RHP (27%). Eovaldi can get around a K per inning, sometimes more too. He has 36 K’s in 33.2 innings so far this year. THis matchup isn’t the easiest, but the Braves still have a lot of strikeouts to be had in their lineup.
Miles Mikolas (9.6k FD, 9.1k DK) vs BAL
Mikolas has been pretty solid for the Cards this season. He isn’t a guy that will get a ton of strikeouts, but he can pitch deep into games and limit damage. Over the last 2 weeks, Baltimore has just a 20.5% strikeout rate against RHP, but that isn’t really Mikolas’ game. They have been hitting a bit better, (almost .300) against righties. Mikolas has the ability to go 6+ innings though at home in this start tonight.
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Shohei Ohtani
- Shane McClanahan
- Miles Mikolas
- Tylor Megill
- Nathan Eovaldi
- Zach Logue
- Joey Wentz
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Top MLB Stacks: Main DFS Slate
- New York Mets
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Houston Astros
- Minnesota Twins
- Texas Rangers
DINGER OF THE DAY
Jul 7, 2020; Bronx, New York, United States; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) during batting practice for workouts at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Aaron Judge
Judge hit a massive walk-off home run last night and now has a matchup against Jose Berrios in this one this afternoon. Judge is 8-14 with 2 HR off Berrios in his career. The Yankees are rolling right now. yes, I know this is an early game today, but he’s my dinger of the day call.
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