Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
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PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Rowdy Tellez (11) hits a two-run home run during the sixth inning of their game against the Cincinnati Reds Wednesday, May 4, 2022 at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wis. Brewers05 18
Tommy Edman Over 6.5fpt
STL vs BAL
It is Tuesday! Feel free to pair any of these picks with the tacos. Tommy Edman started the year off batting 9th. Dylan Carlson is off to a slow start. The Cardinals shook up their lineup and put Edman as the leadoff hitter. He is on an absolute tear this season. A 6.5 projection is just too low. If St. Louis were playing a tougher opponent, then this is fair. They are playing the Orioles… Edman is a switch hitter so he uses the whole field well. He is hitting .348 against LHPs and .274 against RHPs. The benefit of taking the fantasy score projection is anything counts. Edman has a 12.4% BB rate this season. The Cardinals are taking on Kyle Bradish, who has a 7.3% BB rate. He is a bit better hitting against lefties but going against a righty means it will be easier for him to steal a base.
The Cardinals are putting up runs. In any high-scoring game, the leadoff hitter usually plays a big role in it. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado hit right behind Edman. There is no run total yet for this game but I would expect it to be around 5. The Orioles are not expected to compete anytime soon. Their bullpen has been better than average so far but I do not expect that to continue. It is expected to be 89 degrees during game time with 11mph winds blowing out. This spot is simply too good for Edman to have this low of a projection.
Madison Bumgarner Over 21.5fpt
ARI vs MIA
Bumgarner was ejected after the 1st inning in his last start. Not sure if that has anything to do with this projected score. 21.5 feels a bit low. Bumgarner is taking on the Marlins tonight. Miami has the highest strikeout rate against LHPs at 29.4%. They have a .290 wOBA and 92 wRC+ which both rank 22nd in the league. Bumgarner’s best days are past him. However, if there is a spot for him to have some of that success he once had, it would be tonight. This Marlins lineup features multiple 24%+ strikeout hitters and two around 30%. There are some pitch count concerns as Bumgarner has not gone past 5 innings this season and 89 pitches. He made it thru 5 with 77 and 78 pitches but did not come back out for the 6th.
I still feel comfortable with the over because he does not need the quality start or win to hit 21.5. A fair stat line for Bumgarner would be 5IP, 2ER, and 5K. It is unfortunate we do not get a push for 21 but the strikeouts should be there at least for this start. There is always the chance he goes 6IP and earns that +4 for the quality start. Some pitchers have been going deeper into games recently now that we are one month into the season. Bumgarner is a fierce competitor. He should be motivated tonight after that ejection last time out.
Willy Adames Over 6.5fpt / Rowdy Tellez Over 6fpt
MIL @ CIN
Hunter Greene has failed to meet expectations thus far. He is a two-pitch pitcher against RHBs: fastball, slider. To LHBs, he relies on the fastball even more but mixes in a third pitch, the changeup. The hype surrounding Greene is his 103mph fastball and plus-slider. It seems the hitters are ready for his pitches. Greene has struggled in nearly all of his starts. It does not help that he calls the Great American Ball Park home. This stadium is an absolute launchpad. It ranks second only to Coors Field. It is expected to be 81 degrees today. This same Brewers team hung 8ERs on him last time in the 2.2 innings he worked.
Both Adames and Tellez absolutely rake high-velocity fastballs. Against fastballs greater than 96mph, Adames has a .401 wOBA, .233 ISO, 64% hard-hit rate, and 36% groundball rate. Greene allows a whopping 65% flyball rate to righties. Adames has some reverse splits. He had his best game this season against Greene with 2 home runs on May 5th. Tellez has the same success against fastballs. He has a .420 wOBA, .304 ISO, 65% hard-hit rate, and 29% groundball rate. Greene is in for a tough day. These Brewers absolutely rake against Greene’s best pitch. Now the ballpark and weather are going to be on the hitters’ side too.
Corey Seager Over 6fpt
TEX vs KC
Seager signed with the Rangers this offseason. There has not been much talk about him because his numbers have not been anything great. Looking at his advanced stats, his better days are ahead. His baseball savant page has a lot of red. Brad Keller has been better than average for the first month of the season. It is possible he continues to enjoy success. I rather go against that. He had a 5.39 ERA with a 6.51 xERA last year. Making this much of an improvement this quickly is unheard of. He is not a high strikeout pitcher. Seager has the platoon advantage for this one. He hits lefties just fine in the case he has to face one after Keller is pulled.
Similar to the Reds game, this Rangers game features some hitter-friendly weather. It is expected to be 92 degrees with 13mph winds blowing out. Texas has a 4.4 run total that could rise slightly by game time. PrizePicks is putting up more lines with round numbers for MLB. This helps as it allows us to push rather than lose by 0,5. Seager has walked around 10% throughout his career. Keller had a 10.4% BB rate last season. Seager might not have speed but his bat does the work. Marcus Semien seems to be swinging the bat better recently. That will be huge so Seager can bat with runners on base.
Just missed the cut: BOS/ATL NRFI, PHI/SEA NRFI, MIA/ARI NRFI, B Keller U 4.5k, M Perez U 4.5k, Quantrill U 4.5k, Kluber U 17.5o, Meadows G2 O 6.5fpt, Freeman O 7.5fpt, Yordan O 6.5fpt, Salvy O 6fpt, Bogaerts U 1.5h+bb, B Miller O 0.5tb, T Anderson O 0.5r+rbi
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
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