Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a split slate on this Friday with a lot going on, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a nice wide range of pitching options on both slates today, and it looks like we should have some good cash and tournament options no matter where you are playing. At first glance, Bassitt looks to be a solid option for the early games, and could even make the slate cash game viable. For the main slate there are a handful of guys with respectable strikeout upside, such as Rodon, Cease, Keller, and Montgomery. Some of them might be a little riskier than others, but hey, that’s what tournaments are for! As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early slate
Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets
We’ll kick things off with the Diamondbacks and Mets, with Davies and Bassitt getting the start. As mentioned above, Bassitt looks to be in a decent spot here; good stats and momentum coming into this one, not much BvP against him, and not the most threatening lineup on the day.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Peralta
GPP note – Peralta has some BvP and some power against righties coming into it, so if nothing else, he’s worth a look.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor, Alonso, Escobar/Canha
GPP note – A fairly favorable matchup for a lot of these guys, they look to be a good stacking option. Don’t neglect the middle/bottom of the lineup, though!
Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox
Next up are the Twins and Red Sox, with Ryan and Pivetta looking to get the start. I don’t know that I love either pitcher here, but there are some good bats to consider on both sides (though I do like the visitors a little more).
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco, Correa/Buxton
GPP note – Pivetta is allowing power to both sides and a lot of these guys are hitting for power. Polanco offers some BvP with 2 homers in 5 tries against him.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers,
GPP note – They have bigger names but lower numbers coming in, so be sure to check ownership projections to see if it might be worth going lighter here. Either way, Dalbec is worth a look in this RvR matchup, as he’s hitting them pretty well.
Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Nationals and Pirates are up next with Fedde and Keller on the mound. Both pitchers are allowing some decent power, along with a good number of bats coming in fairly hot, so I think we could see some fireworks here.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell, Cruz/Franco
GPP note – An average-ish matchup on paper with no BvP, so I don’t know that huge stacks are the answer. Franco looks to be a good spot.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds/Vogelbach, Gamel
GPP note – A little better matchup for this team, Fedde is allowing contact and plenty of power to both sides, but more to righties right now. Don’t be afraid to take some swings here.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
We’ll wrap up the early slate with the Phillies and Marlins, with Eflin and Lopez getting the start. The visitors are in the better spot here, though there are at least a few options for the Marlins to consider, especially since it’s such a small slate.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper/Schwarber, Hoskins/Realmuto
GPP note – Lopez isn’t looking too bad but he is allowing some power to lefties, and Rhys has some BvP history to go with his good start (sans his last 5 at-bats).
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Soler, Sanchez/Stallings/Chisholm
GPP note – Not a ton to love here. Soler is always worth a look for some pop, and Sanchez/Stallings have had some pop of their own against righties. Otherwise, this doesn’t look to be the best place to attack.
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Main slate
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll continue on to the main slate now, starting with the Yankees and Montgomery taking on Lyles and the Orioles. Camden Yards is always worth a hard look, as the score can quickly add up here.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge/Rizzo
Yankees 4 star plays – Stanton/Donaldson, LeMahieu/Gallo
GPP note – Though Lyles is giving up power mostly to just lefties, the righties here are hitting well too, so they’re worth a good look too. The faster they can get to the bullpen, the better. I think we all expect a few bombs here.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mountcastle, Mancini/Santander
GPP note – Montgomery is allowing more power to lefties, and quite a few of these guys have high xwOBA against lefties coming into this one. That could lead to a sudden surge, so consider having exposure here.
Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
Next up are the Athletics and Blue Jays, with Jefferies and Stripling on the mound. These lower/mid-ranged pitchers have much different stories coming in, with Jefferies coming in with a decent start and Stripling failing to come anywhere close to paying off his salary. We’ll see if those trends continue today.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Kemp, Pinder
GPP note – It’s been a tough start for Stripling, so it might be a good idea to attack him here. Bats on either side of the plate are in play. Wrap-around stacks using guys like Neuse isn’t a bad idea.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Springer/Guerrero, Bichette/Gurriel, any lefties that start
GPP note – These guys can hit for a ton, but the lefties get the favored traditional splits for this one. Unfortunately there aren’t many of those to choose from here, so be sure to include them in your stacks.
San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians
We head down to Cleveland for our next matchup, with the Giants and Guardians facing off with Rodon and Plesac as their starters. Overall I think the Giants might have the advantage, though I think it’s going to boil down to how Rodon and the Guardians’ offense performs.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt/Crawford, Yastrzemski/Flores/Pederson
GPP note – A good overall matchup for these guys, slightly favoring the righties. I think Bart is interesting as a punt option.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez/Reyes, Rosario/Mercado
GPP note – These guys are hitting well but Rodon looks pretty sharp, too. Might be a good spot to hedge!
Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox
The Rays and White Sox are up next, with Rasmussen and Cease getting the start. Much like the previous game, I could see the advantage going either way with these pitcher vs offense matchups. While I do worry about what kind of upside Rasmussen could offer, I think the other three sides offer plenty.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Franco/Arozarena, B Lowe/Choi
GPP note – Much the same as the matchup above, these guys are swinging pretty well but Cease looks to be on his game, too. Another solid hedging option as both sides have potential for some big numbers.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Grandal/Sheets, Robert/Anderson/Abreu
GPP note – Similar idea here, though I don’t think that Rasmussen has the same upside as the previous two pitchers. Rather, I think these guys will get their contact, it’ll just depend on how the little things go. Lefties have the power advantage here. I see them having a somewhat low floor, but pretty high ceiling. I’d go big stacks if you go here.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
Up next are the Angels and Rangers, two potent offenses using bottom-dollar pitchers that may go anywhere from 1 to 4 innings, depending on how things go. I don’t see them offering us a whole lot, but the bats surely could.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Walsh/Rendon
GPP note – Don’t know much about Abreu or how long he’ll last, but these guys are hitting well enough to not worry about him. A good option for stacks from small to large. I like the idea of wrap-around stacks here, too.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Solak/Heim
GPP note – These guys are hitting for power, and Detmers is sure allowing plenty of it (though most of it to righties). Any sort of stacking option can be used here, from one-offs to full stacks. Solak/Heim could work for wrap-around attacks.
St Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
We head north for our next game with the Cardinals and Brewers, and Mikolas & Peralta as the starters. While I do think the home team as the upper hand here, if the St Louis bats show up like they can, we could get a good back-and-forth. Peralta has his upside too, so don’t be afraid to hedge here.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado/Goldschmidt, DeJong
GPP note – Another hedge spot, these guys can blister the ball or totally flop, so I think it would be worth having at least some exposure to them in tournaments to contrast some Peralta lineups. Don’t be afraid to use righties as Peralta is showing some reverse splits.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – McCutchen/Yelich,
GPP note – A good spot for these guys, Mikolas isn’t getting his strikeouts and is a little soft to both sides of the plate, though he is allowing more power to righties.
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Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
We get a divisional game next, with Skubal and the Tigers taking on Keller and my Royals. I want to be a homer and say KC has the advantage, and I think they do by a little, but I could see this one going either way. I do think Keller has the better chance of returning value over Skubal, but either offense could do some damage here.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays -Baez/Meadows/Schoop
GPP note – Another matchup I could see going either way, they do at least have the advantage of a fair chunk of BvP, so even if you don’t go with any large stacks, consider a few one-offs or mini-stacks.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez/Merrifield, Witt/Dozier
GPP note – Same as above. The righties have a good chance of getting a big hit or two, and they do have some experience against Skubal (Perez has two homers in 10 at-bats against him). I like the idea of grabbing a few small pieces of this game.
Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies
Up next is our Coors game, with Stroman and the Cubs taking on Marquez and the Rockies. I don’t know that Stroman has a lot of experience pitching here, but I know that Marquez does, so that could certainly play into things. Certainly the Rockies will look to bounce back after last night’s defeat, so perhaps this will be the game that goes off? Fun fact, neither roster has a hit a homer against either starting pitcher.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ/Contreras
GPP note – Coors is always fun to stack, but I don’t know how much upside they’ll have if Marquez is on top of things. There’s no real BvP to go off of here, either.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon/Joe, Cron
GPP note – I think these guys would have a better chance of going off, though it’s a Coors game, so they won’t be sneaky. Perhaps using some pieces deeper in the order could help with that?
Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres
We head out west for our next matchup, featuring the Braves and Padres. We’ll have a couple more bottom-dollar pitchers here, though both are a little interesting. Wright looked solid in his first start and flashed some upside, and we get a hyped up new guy who will be starting in place of Snell. Might it be worth taking some shots with them?
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Olson
GPP note – Hard to know what to expect here facing a guy in his debut, but we’ll see how he lives up to the hype (to be fair, everyone and everything is hyped up these days). Perhaps another hedge is in play?
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Nola/Voit
GPP note – Wright impressed in his first start, and could again here, but these have strong xwOBA numbers against righties. If you’re running enough lineups and are looking for some more places to grab some players with decent upside, consider both sides of this one.
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners
The Astros and Mariners are next, with Odorizzi and Gonzales as their starters. The Astros are always worth a look for some fantasy goodness, but I think the Mariners can hold their own here. They surely don’t attract a ton of attention to themselves, so it might not be a bad place to look with the other popular games tonight.
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman, Alvarez/Brantley
GPP note – The righties are in the better spot here, and the bottom of the order bats look like they could be good value targets.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Haniger/Winker/France/Frazier
GPP note – Statistically, these guys are actually hitting better than the Astros are in their given matchup, so if you’re looking for a different place to go, consider these bats.
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll wrap up the day with the Reds and Dodgers, with Gutierrez and Gonsolin getting the start. I can’t say that I love either pitcher here; Gutierrez is coming in with some rough numbers and I don’t know that Gonsolin is the guy to win the day, but we’ll see how that goes.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Naquin, Votto
GPP note – Not a ton that stands out, but I think Fraley could be an interesting budget option. Kind of an average-ish matchup for them otherwise, so maybe look elsewhere for your larger stacks.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Betts/Freeman, Taylor
GPP note – More of the same with these guys (they’re usually in play one way or another), but I think the bottom of the order could keep pace with or even out-value the top in this matchup.
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And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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