Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the MLB staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines could change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our MLB Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…
PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Apr 10, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes (13) bats against the St. Louis Cardinals during the sixth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Cubs and Rockies SPs Over 0.5 1st Inning Runs Allowed
CLE @ CIN
A Saturday MLB Prizepicks article! There is a Joel Embiid free square play for NBA available until 6:10pm ET today. Here are some MLB plays to use with that free square. 1st inning run lines are my favorite. We did not get these for Coors Field games until yesterday. I thought it was because both teams were using quality starting pitchers so fewer runs were going to be scored. Well, that is not the case. Chicago is sending Mark Leiter Jr. to the mound. He last pitched in the majors in 2018 and was not good. Leiter has a career 5.53 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He is 31 years old so unless he is a late bloomer, this is a tough spot to pitch in today. The Rockies are implied for a slate-high 6.6 runs.
On the other side, Colorado is starting Antonio Senzatela. This is his sixth year in the majors, all with Colorado. In his first three years with the team, he struggled. Senzatela only made 12 starts in 2018 but had an impressive 3.44 ERA. He has a career 4.53 xFIP compared to a 4.83 ERA. It could be that he has figured out how to pitch at Coors. However, these numbers are not off the charts. No pitcher is safe from Coors Field. There are a lot of runs expected to be scored in this one. These two pitchers are nothing to be scared of. Both of these offenses have talented bats in the top half of their lineups. We do not need to worry about the bottom half as this is a 1st inning only pick. Take advantage of Coors Field.
Ke’Bryan Hayes Over 6.5fpt
PIT vs WSH
I am not sure if someone else was scheduled to pitch today for the Nationals because all the lines for the Pirates seem too low. Same thing with the DraftKings prices. Josh Rogers had a rather nice outing against Atlanta on April 11. He got through 5.1 innings on 74 pitches while allowing only 1 run. Looking at some advanced stats, he did get lucky. He had a 5.23 xFIP in this start. Throughout the minors, he had seasons with above a 7 ERA. He does not miss bats as he only has a 14% K rate against RHBs. In addition, Rogers allows a .357 wOBA, .255 ISO, and 50.5% flyball rate. He has significant splits and should have a tough time dealing with this righty-heavy Pittsburgh lineup.
Hayes left early in the first game of the year but he avoided a serious injury. Since then, he has been on fire. He is batting leadoff and is showing why he was such a highly-coveted prospect. Hayes has a 20.2% K rate against LHPs. Rogers does not strike many batters out. This and Hayes’s groundball tendencies are mitigated by Rogers’s weaknesses. Hayes hits the ball hard as shown by his exit velocities. He has some stolen base upside as he already has two this season. Rogers is a lefty though so if Hayes were to record a stolen base, it would likely come after Rogers has been pulled. For a 6.5 projection, a stolen base would easily get him over this line as long as he reached base via a hit or walk.
Anthony Rendon Over 6.5fpt
LAA @ TEX
It was not long ago that Rendon was in contention for the NL MVP award. After signing with the Angels, he could not stay healthy. He seems just fine to begin the 2022 season. The Angels will take on lefty Taylor Hearn today. He has some drastic lefty/righty splits. Against RHBs, Hearn allows a .349 wOBA, .189 ISO, 18.7% K rate, and 45.8% flyball rate. Hearn throws a fastball, sinker, changeup, and slider. Rendon crushes these pitches except the sinker. He is not bad at hitting this pitch though as he still has a .292 wOBA and it is only off of 27 batted balls in play. Hearn throws the sinker 20% of the time to RHBs.
Rendon destroyed left-handed pitching in 2017. He is going to have the platoon advantage today against a pitcher who struggles against right-handed batters. Rendon only strikes out 11.8% of the time against LHPs and a 37.1% groundball rate. He regularly hits in the middle of the Angels lineup. There should be plenty of run-scoring opportunities with Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout batting ahead of him. Rendon doubled off of Hearn in his only meeting against him. 6.5 just seems a point or two too low of a projection.
Willson Contreras Over 0.5 Runs + RBIs
CHC vs COL
Let us get this out of the way: Contreras is playing at Coors today. The Cubs are projected for 5.7 runs. The more runs that are scored, the more chances there are for Contreras to score a run or pick up a run batted in. He is projected to bat 3rd today against Senzatela. Rafael Ortega and Nick Madrigal are projected to hit in front of him. Both of these hitters put the ball in play and can get on base. Hitting 3rd allows Contreras to have runners on base when he steps up to the plate. If he comes up with nobody on, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are the two best guys you want hitting behind Contreras to drive him in. He runs well for a catcher and has already scored 6 runs in 5 games.
It is rare that PrizePicks would offer a player in this great of a spot. Usually, the runs and RBIs lines are for hitters facing good pitchers or hitters towards the bottom of the lineup. Madrigal is also available, but I prefer Contreras because Madrigal does not have any power. He will have to rely on runners to be on base or for the guys behind him to produce. Even if nobody is on when Contreras steps up to hit, he can do this with one swing. Contreras has 4 official ABs against Senzatela. He has 2 doubles with 3RBIs.
Just missed the cut: George Springer O 7.5fpt, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. O 8.5fpt, Bo Bichette O 6.5fpt, Jeimer Candelario O 6.5fpt, Salvador Perez, O 6.5fpt, Kyle Schwarber U 7.5fpt, Bryan Reynolds O 5.5fpt, Josh Bell O 7.5fpt, Mike Trout O 8.5fpt, Aaron Judge O 8.5fpt, Giancarlo Stanton O 7.5fpt, Ian Happ O 6.5fpt, Seiya Suzuki O 6.5fpt, Cody Bellinger O 4.5fpt, Whit Merrifield O 0.5r+rbi
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
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