Back by popular demand, NFL DFS Box Checkers shows you to quickly identify key players for this week’s fantasy football slate in minutes. The DFS Army NFL Research Station is a very powerful suite of statistical analysis with fully customizable, filterable, sortable functionality. What used to take days or hours now takes mere minutes to discover! Follow along as @Choppodong rips these core plays to shreds every week in less than 15 minutes…
At the bottom, see a secret video normally only available to our VIPs! How to setup the optimizer to crush the top 1% and 2% in contests like leagues and microboosters. As the self-proclaimed “king of the smallaballa,” Chop has uncovered another easy to follow system capable of building bankrolls for anyone struggling on Fanduel or Draftkings.
Week 14 NFL Box Checkers
Quarterbacks
5 categories lead to making value historically. Home NFL QBs perform better than road QBs. Favored teams are implied to score more points, and their QBs do the scoring. Game totals make sense to follow, the higher the better. And, efficiency trumps volume! Volume is nice, but efficient QBs are proven to put up more fantasy points than those banking on volume alone. To finish, salary. You can price yourself out of making value unless putting up a true ceiling performance. In the NFL, we find staying under $8000 in Draftkings salary helps…in fact, the cheaper the better.
Remember, blue is very strong. Green is pretty strong. When it comes to checking boxes, we are tracking those typically leading to a DFS NFL player paying off his salary.
This week is DIFFERENT!! Hear me out.
Sure, on the surface, it looks like Brady is the clear cash choice, but I’m not so sure. Ok, he’s fine, but so is Mahomes and so is Herbert. But…what about Taysom Hill vs the Jets? This is likely your cash play. Why? He runs, he’s cheap, and NY can’t stop shit. He should have less trouble paying off his salary than the others, as great as they are. And, he affords premiums at the other positions. We can even run him naked (unstacked), and that’s probably the optimal way to use him anyway.
You can use the others in tourneys, but Box Checkers is always a suggestion, not a brick and mortar rule. I wish DFS could be more definitive, but it can’t be. We have to learn when to buck the system, and this is likely one of the few weeks. I expect the others to have “good” weeks, but the floor/upside combo probably lies with Taysom even though he only checks 2 boxes.
Running Backs
Once again, home teams matter for RBs, and being favored obviously affects game scripts in a positive way. High scoring game environments help push those touchdowns around, landing on running backs. We want volume at all positions not QB. 18 touches (rushes + receptions) is the goal here. Passing game work gives us safety when the game script flips. Red Zone work matters…especially inside the 10. And, salary works here again. Staying under $8000 like our NFL QBs helps the running backs, too.
NFL DFS RB is often where Box Checkers shines. These guys are safe enough for a cash game, but you might not use them there if you find 30% or 40% NFL RBs. They do, however, make sneaky high-quality pivot plays in tourneys or even multipliers and leagues. My “Ladder System” absolutely feasts off plays like these.
Lots of yellow this week. Some green, and one blue……Lenny!! Last time Lenny was blue, he scored 4 tuddies at 10% ownership and I was calling him out for hybrid games. Did you read me? Did you talk in our Discord rooms? Not many were on him, but Box Checkers knocked him out of the damned park.
Being we have a lot of color in this graphic, it also suggests a lot of running backs are in good situations. I’d spread out and cover bases this week. (See set up video below)
Wide Receivers
Home field advantage proves negligible for NFL WRs. But, being favored is still important to hitting fantasy value. High totals matter, but when favored, we want team totals over 25 points. When the dog, we want UNDER 22 points indicating garbage time potential. Volume matters again. We’d like to see more than 7 targets per game on the average, and we want to see more than about 25% usage in the Red Zone…especially on Fanduel. Salary is key again, so we stay under $7000 here. Remember, this position is volatile as hell. But, we have backtested 250+ contests and found the top 3 Milli-Maker lineups contain someone meeting these criteria almost 60% of the time…..good odds for a crapshoot like WR.
WR is typically our crapshoot position. When we don’t get a lot of green and/or blue plays, I will just spend down most times. If the position is going to be volatile, why spend money?
And, while the last few weeks were a struggle to find anyone with color in their checked boxes, this week doesn’t have that problem (like RB). We can really mix, match, get funky. Sure, stack with your QB in tourneys, but think about this as well…
Stefon Diggs is supposed to be a little chalky at 17% ownership. That’s about 2nd on the slate. Why would I play him if he isn’t even yellow? He’s expensive, Tyreek is in a better spot apparently, and people might make the mistake of over-owning Diggs. I’ll gamble there and largely fade him. Tyreek is half the ownership at 10%. Easy pivot. Even if it doesn’t “work” this week, it’s the right move per process….not results.
Mike Williams and Hunter Renfrow are also in good spots and carrying around 15% ownership. Guess who are in similar spots and come in way under that 15%? CeeDee Lamb and Mike Evans. You tellin’ me those two can’t break a slate just as often as Mike Williams or Hunter Renfrow?…if not more often? This game is about ownership and pivots in 2021. Even more than stat-hunting and being the smartest guy on paper (again, watch the video below).
Another great tool to consult is our coaching NFL Cheatsheets! If you wind up torn on a couple players, sometimes the words in the blurbs by another coach can help you tip the scale. In the case of this week, when Box Checkers isn’t helping a lot, those cheatsheets might become more important to your research.
Tight Ends
Here we go with the home and favorite stuff again. NFL TE depends on it. We want volume, so focus on 7+ targets again, too. Red Zone work goes without saying at TE. And, we’ve discovered they also benefit from closer games, under 7 point spreads. If favored, you want ITTs over 26 points, and if the dog, under 24 points. Cheap plays, too!! On Draftkings, $3000-$5000 seems to be landing in the Milli a ridiculous 68% of the time…..and until week 1 this year, we had no recorded example of an 8k TE appearing in the Milli winner. That changes with Travis Kelce, and you can speculate all the previous slates he might not have been a part of due to prime time or Monday Night games. Fact is….the super high-priced TE is rare and likely cost prohibitive most times. Tend to pay down.
No green, no blue, but only one yellow. Does that mean the category is solved? No.
All this means is the position is a different kind of crapshoot. Someone is going to pop off. There just isn’t a clear indicator of who compared to his peers. Remember last week? Seemed every Red Zone Channel highlight was of a TE scoring a touchdown. We had no color last week and I said it didn’t much matter who you took because it was sort of throwing darts. This week is going to be similar. We just have a lot more brand-recognition in the names.
A guy that doesn’t make the list is Foster Moreau. I know, I know, he sucked last week. But, this is the perfect week to go back to him. The donkeys and fish are pissed and probably dropped him in their season long leagues. If he was in a good spot last week, he’s in a better one this week. The Chiefs struggle vs TE and he’s still going to be a focal point of that Raiders offense. Not a bad gamble for cheap when others are paying up for the Kelces, Kittles, and Gronks.
Remember, these boxes are set up by Shark Autopsy’s analysis of what players typically land in the Milli-Maker lineups, too. We have our safety plays, but we are also shooting for upside.
Where to Use These DFS Players
Box Checkers players are typically obvious, chalky (see our NFL Chalkboard Tool) and highly owned. Occasionally, we get some that slip under the radar (see our Leverage Stacks components).
However, these players can be used in ANY format from NFL cash games to big tourneys (or “Ladder Lineups” combining both!). The key to tourney play is using a core of these players and adding in some other lower owned pieces to give your lineup some uniqueness and creativity with the upside to beat a lot of competitors. As the DFS NFL world becomes more and more advanced, sometimes simplifying our process actually goes a little against the grain.
Now, How Would You Set Up an NFL Optimizer?
I have backtested my own contests looking for the elusive “top 1%” and found a very fast and easy way to set up optimizers. Gone are the days of hours and hours of research. Make your own tweaks, but start winning more money this week.
Imagine how openly I share with our VIPs? Ask any question, and I will dive into YOUR game and help turn things around. (See how to join DFS Army below.)
Box Checkers Setup NFL Week 14
Don’t waste time duplicating the efforts of nerds! Focus on what matters….setting up optimizers. Here are two very fast ways that work.
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Plenty of box checkers in Week 8’s gpp winner. But, what’s up with all the goofy correlation? I broke the details down for our members in our #beginners-coaching Discord Channel. If you feel you struggle with stacking, correlation, leverage, and some of the finer points of lineup construction, you are going to want to use that discount above….and get involved.
We turn #Smallaballas into DFS pros every day. And, we can teach you to win 50,000 person gpps just like our coaches do. (It’s not as hard as you think…you just have to interact with us!)
Oh, and in case you want to see how these “Ladder Lineups” work out…..here’s an easy example. This is what we call a “sweep” in that it cashed everything. Ladders build bankrolls!!
