NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 12/6/2021

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

SG/SF Anthony Edwards $8100

MIN vs ATL

With how DraftKings has been pricing the studs up recently, balanced builds have been the move. This is especially true when it is a larger slate. We have 10 games today and there should be plenty of value to pay up for whoever you want. Since there is a lot of uncertainty with the studs (questionable tags and blowouts), I will stick with the mid-range for this article. Among the many questionable tags are half of the Timberwolves roster. Karl Anthony-Towns, D’Angelo Russell, Patrick Beverley, and Jaden McDaniels are all listed on the injury report. There was a report that said everyone would be expected to play but we will have to await confirmation on that. If one or two of KAT and DLo are out, then Edwards will become popular. If Jimmy Butler remains out, Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro should soak up plenty of ownership at this price range.

On the season, Edwards leads the team with a 27.7% usage rate averaging 1.08FPM. His teammates have been priced up but Edwards is a bit cheaper after the last game against the Nets. Just like any other youngster, Edwards plays better at home. The Hawks are on the second leg of a back-to-back and will be shorthanded on the wing. Already down, Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter, they could be without Cam Reddish and Solomon Hill. Atlanta’s defense is much weaker with Kevin Huerter and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot soaking up all those wing minutes. In addition, the Hawks are traveling into Minnesota. This game has a 221 total and is a pick ’em. That obviously will change depending on who plays in this game. We have the value so Edwards should be a spend-up option.

 

SF/PF Gordon Hayward $7000

CHA vs PHI

The Hornets will be short-handed today again. Though this is a back-to-back, there will be playing at home. Philly could be without Tobias Harris. There is not a spread yet but this game has a 219 total. This should be a competitive game and with this depleted roster, Hayward will have to play big minutes. He actually did not close the game but that was due to the fact that Cody Martin could not miss. James Borrego ran a tight rotation even when the Hornets were healthy. Now he will continue to do so. On Sunday, they pretty much ran a 6-man rotation with some filler minutes from JT Thor, Nick Richards, and James Bouknight. Hayward played 33mins against the Hawks. If he closes today, he will reach close to 40mins.

Besides Ish Smith, the Hornets do not have a playmaker. Gordon Hayward can do a little bit of that. His assists total will be higher for the time being. With PJ Washington playing the majority of the center mins, everyone else will pick up more rebounds. All these Hornets have a higher projection with these peripherals due to the short roster and increased playing time. The 76ers have some solid defenders in Danny Green and Mattise Thybulle. They should be more focused on Miles Bridges and Kelly Oubre Jr. Hayward is a solid all-around player that should be low-owned today since he only put up 28.75DKpts on Sunday. He was chalk while his teammates seemingly all had ceiling games. People will be reluctant to roster so many Hornets with Smith and Martin available.

 

SF/PF Saddiq Bey $5200

DET vs OKC

The Pistons get their opportunity today against the lowly Thunder. After being blown out by a record 73pts, OKC will be getting back Josh Giddey today. With no SGA, every Thunder game is going to have blowout risk. Even though the Pistons are not a contender, they still have a better roster than the Thunder today. They will be playing at home with their core players healthy. If you are on the court against this OKC team, you have a good matchup. Bey should be sub-5% owned today since the Hornets forwards are the chalk. There is a lot of value so people will go with the stars and scrubs build. Bey has shot terribly from the field which has led to disappointing fantasy outcomes.

Bey has shot 2-9, 1-9, and 2-9 his last 3 games. He is known to be a shooter but is averaging 29% from 3 this season. Bey shot 38% from 3 in his rookie year. His shooting should positively regress soon. This is the perfect spot for that to start. The Thunder allow the most made 3s in the league. Bey rebounds well for a forward. OKC allows the most rebounds to opposing SFs. With the 2 strengths of Bey’s game being 2 of the weaknesses for the Thunder, this is a get-right spot for the struggling Bey. Hopefully, this game stays close enough for Bey to hit 7x because it might take that to be optimal on this value-filled slate.

 

SF Norman Powell $5000

POR vs LAC

If you are not a believer in Bey, Powell is another forward to look at in this price range. Though he does not have as good of a matchup, he will get more usage with Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons out. He was around 30% last slate and put up a dud of 13.5DKpts. The Clippers are middle of the pack at defending SFs. With the pair of PGs out, Powell is 2nd on the team behind CJ McCollum in usage rate at 24.3%. He is shot-dependent but there should be plenty of shots for him with these guards sidelined. The Blazers need his offense. McCollum and Nurkic alone cannot carry them to a win. With any shooting-dependent player, understand the risk in this play. He has a low floor but a 40+DKpt ceiling today with the injuries.

His minutes have been low recently but that is all due to blowouts. The Blazers are struggling right now that it led to their head coach Chauncey Billups calling the team out. Maybe this will be a wake-up call for the team. With McCollum dealing with a rib injury, Powell might have to step even more. He is dealing with his own injury of a broken nose. Again, there are going to be better plays on paper than Powell. He is someone who has massive upside and because the ownership will be much lower than last game, he is a tournament play.

 

Just missed the cut: Joel Embiid, Paul George, Jusuf Nurkic, Evan Mobley (if Giannis out), Caris LeVert, Kyle Kuzma, Isaiah Stewart, Derrick Jones Jr., Aaron Holiday, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot

 

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

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