Get your NFL DFS research started with a full game-by-game breakdown of this week’s NFL slate. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for NFL DFS Week 11:
Nov 14, 2021; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) drops back to pass against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
First, let me kick things off with a cool video that Geek put out reviewing week 10 lineups. It’s important to go back through your thought process on a weekly basis and what you can tweak in future builds, check it out! Also, a quick shoutout to VIP Member ‘kevinshiv01’ on his big $150k win earlier in the season, hell of a win!
-> Week 10 – NFL Cash and GPP Lineup Review <-
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Vegas odds:
Total: 44.5
Line: Ten -10.5
Rundown:
We’ll get week 11 started with a pretty poor Texans team and I think it’s just going to be the same old story for them here for me. If you want to play that Tyrod Taylor to Brandin Cooks stack… that’s fine considering we figure they’re going to need to throw quite a bit here. Cooks continues to be a target share monster on this team with nearly a 35% target share on the season. It’s pretty clear who these Houston quarterbacks are looking for when they drop back to pass. Tyrod is a fine value option for cash games if you’re looking to spend up elsewhere, but the ceiling isn’t all that high on him. From the Titans, AJ Brown had a rough go of it last time out against the Saints going for just 3.3 DraftKings points, but with Derrick Henry and Julio Jones both continuing to be out, he’s going to be the focal point of this offense in a great matchup with a poor defense… it’ll be really hard not to like him again here. I don’t mind stacking up this offense as a whole actually, Ryan Tannehill has been pretty consistent as of late and we know his touchdown equity increases now that Henry isn’t back there demanding the ball. Henry has missed two weeks already and is still second in the league in red-zone carries at 37. Without him back there this offense will look to throw a bit more, so I think the Titans are certainly in play here. Brown is the obvious main stacking piece, but if you want to get a cheap option in there as well, Marcus Johnson received six targets last week on his way to 18 DraftKings points. He’s a downfield guy that I expect to get some extended work with Julio out. Then we get to this backfield which has turned into a three-headed monster. Adrian Peterson looks how you would expect a 36-year-old running back to look and Jeremy McNichols is more of a pass-catching specialist. This leaves D’onta Foreman as the third man, he was pretty clearly the best running back on the team last week… at least when it comes to the eye test. I don’t hate taking a flyer on him as a one-off if you’re looking for a value running back against a bad defense. Finally, the Titans DST will be popular this week due to the matchup and have at least 12 FanDuel points in three of their last four games.
5-star plays: AJ Brown
4-star plays: Brandin Cooks, Ryan Tannehill, Titans DST
GPP Note: Brown, Cooks, and Tannehill will be my main pieces in this game, but if you want to add Marcus Johnson to a Titans stack or D’onta Foreman/Tyrod Taylor as a one-off I’ll have no issue with it.
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills
Vegas odds:
Total: 50.0
Line: Buf -7.5
Rundown:
We get a big implied total here as the Colts head into Buffalo as 7.5 point dogs. We’ll start with the Colts who get a really tough matchup here against a great Bills defense. I’ve tried to stack against the Bills this season, just because teams will likely fall behind quickly and need to throw, but this defense is just so tough. That being said, I don’t believe I’ll get too much of any Colts stacks but there are some one-off pieces you can look at here. Jonathan Taylor is the most obvious play, but again, you’ll see below in our Domination Station that the Bills are number one in the league in DvP against running backs.
Taylor is still in play for tournaments due to his huge upside and ability to bust a big play, but we can find better options for cash games. I don’t mind a Michael Pittman Jr. one-off in this one however, he’s been really consistent as of late with at least 12 DraftKings points in four straight and if we think they’re going to need to throw here, he should see plenty of targets. Pittman is the clear leader in the receiving group with a 24% target share on the season. We can round the Colts out with Carson Wentz who I just don’t think we need to get to here, he’s going to have trouble against this Bills defense, I’m okay taking the one-off with Pittman, but trusting Wentz to be able to get the ball into the hands of the other receivers is a bit thin for me. From the Bills, it was finally a Stefon Diggs week in week 10 where he went for 162 yards and a touchdown. We’ve been waiting for this game all season long and now has at least 14.5 DraftKings points in four straight games. I have no issue stacking him up with Josh Allen here, they’re going to be a top stack on this slate for me. The Colts have shown the ability to give up the deep ball this season, so this sets up nicely for the Bills offense. Allen and Diggs both have a 90+ rating in the Domination Station this week. The Bills are generally a team I like to double stack as well with a second receiving option due to the fact that they don’t run the ball much and Allen isn’t a running quarterback like Lamar or Kyler Murray, so the ball will be moved through the air. Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, and Dawson Knox all make sense as a second stacking option beyond Diggs.
5-star plays: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs
4-star plays: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox
GPP Note: The Bills will be a top stack on this slate for me and a team that I’ll want to double stack. My favorite run back option on the Colts would be Michael Pittman Jr., but you can go to Taylor if you have the salary.
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles
Vegas odds:
Total: 43.5
Line: Phi -1.5
Rundown:
We’ll start this one with the Saints who are a really tough team to get to in terms of DFS. I’m going to make the Saints analysis really quick here because there’s really only one guy or position that I’m interested in and it’s the backfield. Alvin Kamara comes in as questionable, so we’ll need to keep an eye on the injury report as we get closer to Sunday for news on him. If he were to miss again I would go right back to the Mark Ingram well as an elite value on this slate. He scored 18.8 FanDuel points last week and would continue to be the workhorse with Kamara out. If Kamara plays then he’s the guy you would want and you can pretty safely fade Ingram. Outside of the backfield, the Saints are a pretty big fade for me here. From the Eagles, Jalen Hurts has come down to Earth being held under 20 DraftKings points in three straight games. I can’t say I love this spot against a good defense in a low total game either. Devonta Smith has had back-to-back big weeks and is a guy I don’t hate for tournaments but I think we can find a better spot for cash games. Keep an eye on the Dallas Goedert news here as well, as he went into concussion protocol after last week’s game. If he were to miss there would be some additional targets to go around and I do have an off-the-wall tournament value play if this were the case. Tyree Jackson was activated from the IR on Saturday and a guy they really like. He’s a converted quarterback very similar to what Washington did with Logan Thomas. I’m not saying he’s a cash guy by any means but at the min price on both sites, he would be interesting in tournaments. The Eagles are expecting Miles Sanders back here as well, something interesting is they’ve started to run the ball much more ever since Sanders went down a few weeks ago. I think there’s a chance that this continues and we get back to the Sanders we’re used to seeing, but still more of a GPP guy.
5-star plays: Mark Ingram (If Kamara is out)
4-star plays: Alvin Kamara, Jalen Hurts, Devonta Smith, Miles Sanders
GPP Note: I don’t really want to stack either of these teams, but there are some interesting one-offs.
I quickly want to shout out VIP member ‘bobbywow1’ for his success in NFL DFS last season, as he took home $1,000,000 cash on the FanDuel main slate last season. I know he’s ready to put our VIP tools back to use for this season!
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Vegas odds:
Total: 45.0
Line: Mia -3.0
Rundown:
Starting with Miami, I think we’re going to get ourselves into the Tua Tagovailoa well again here. The Jets defense is just so bad that this Dolphins offense actually becomes stackable. The price tag on Tua makes him a great play in all formats and has a number of stacking options you can go to as well. My favorite would be Mike Gesicki even after dropping a goose egg last week, but you can look at a guy like Jaylen Waddle as well. Waddle and Gesicki account for 39% of the Dolphins target share on the season. Then you can round the Dolphins out with Myles Gaskin who gets a great matchup here, as the Jets come in ranked 30th in DvP against the run according to the Domination Station below.
Then we get to the Jets who broke some news this morning stating that old man Joe Flacco will get the start here. I won’t have much of any interest in this Jets passing game for the most part but Elijah Moore continues to look great with double-digit fantasy points in four straight games if you want to get a share or two in tournaments. I do like getting to some Michael Carter in the backfield however, he continues to see the bulk of the snaps across the Jets’ running backs and can get it done in the passing game as well. He’s been really consistent as of late and has shown a nice ceiling as well.
5-star plays: Tua Tagovailoa, Mike Gesicki
4-star plays: Jaylen Waddle, Myles Gaskin, Michael Carter
GPP Note: The Dolphins stack is firmly in play here against a bad Jets defense, then go ahead and run that bad boy back with either Moore or Michael Carter on the Jets side of things.
Washington Football Team @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas odds:
Total: 43.0
Line: Car -3.5
Rundown:
We’ll start with the Washington team here and they’re pretty similar to the Saints for me in this spot. The Panthers defense has shown to be legit this season, and I don’t know how much I really want to stack up a mediocre offense against a good defense on a full slate. I think you’re fine getting a one-off on Terry McLaurin or Antonio Gibson just due to the upside they provide, but that’s about as far as I’m getting on this Washington team here. From the Panthers, I would fully expect Cam Newton to get the start for them here as he looked great last week in his 2021 Panthers debut. He’s an interesting option here because we know he can be a good DFS/fantasy quarterback without necessarily being a great real-life quarterback. Newton played on just 12% of the team’s snaps last week and still scored 11 FanDuel points. I mentioned why I double stack offenses where the quarterback doesn’t run a whole lot, this would be a case where I would single-stack the Panthers or even run Cam naked if he were my quarterback due to his rushing ability. DJ Moore would be my favorite stacking option with Robby Anderson there as a tournament dart against a bad defense that will get worse now that Chase Young is out. Then we can round out the Panthers with Christian McCaffrey where the analysis is pretty simple… is he available? Yes. Okay, he’s in play.
5-star plays: Christian McCaffrey
4-star plays: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Cam Newton, DJ Moore
GPP Note: I don’t know that I want to fully stack the Panthers offense but you can run a number of different combos including running Cam Newton out there by himself. I don’t think I would run Newton and McCaffrey together just because they’ll eat into each other’s touchdown equity, but that’s about it.
Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns
Vegas odds:
Total: 44.0
Line: Cle -10.0
Rundown:
Now we get to a game where I have virtually no stacking interest in either side due to the limited upside of the quarterbacks on both sides. That said, we’ll get started with the Lions where I’ll have two interests… TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift. Hockenson is in the same boat as Mike Gesicki in that Dolphins game where he put up a goose egg last week and is generally one of the more reliable tight-end options in the league. He still leads the team with a 24% target share with Swift right behind him at 23% on the season. Speaking of Swift’s target share, his ability to catch the ball gives up such a nice floor/ceiling combo and is coming off a nice week last week as well. From the Browns, I would think Nick Chubb gets activated from the Covid list before this game and is available here. If that’s the case he’ll be one of my favorite running backs on the week. This Lions defense isn’t good by any means and with Kareem Hunt still out it’s going to continue to be the Chubb show. Outside of Chubb, there really isn’t much to like for me when it comes to DFS, Baker Mayfield can’t seem to get healthy and isn’t putting up enough passing numbers for me to feel great about any of his pass-catchers. I do think the Browns DST will be in play here however against a weaker Lions offense.
5-star plays: Nick Chubb, D’Andre Swift
4-star plays: TJ Hockenson
GPP Note: I won’t be stacking either of these teams, but there are a few nice one-offs you can get to.
Check out Geek’s “First Look Lineup” construction video as well as you prepare for week 11!
San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas odds:
Total: 45.5
Line: SF -6.5
Rundown:
Starting with the Niners, we’ll need to keep an eye on the status of Eli Mitchell going into this one. He had a procedure done on his fractured finger on Tuesday, putting him on the injury report and coming into this one as questionable. If he were to miss I would think Jeff Wilson Jr. would slot in as the workhorse, but something to monitor as we get later into the week. I want to like the Niners stack more than I think I can simply because Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t offer a ton of upside. If Mitchell sits, maybe it makes the Niners throw more, but they’re pretty clearly a run-first team that kills Garoppolo’s upside. I do like some one-off options in this passing game, however. George Kittle has a touchdown in both games since returning from injury and at least seven targets in both games, he’s an elite tight end option here. Then of course Deebo Samuel will continue to be in play, the guy is just tearing up defenses right now and I expect that to continue against the Jags here. Brandon Aiyuk is interesting as well, but more of a GPP guy in that price range. From the Jags, James Robinson returned last week and continued doing what he does, he’s a nice running back option this week. Outside of him, there isn’t a whole lot to love in this Jaguars offense, but Dan Arnold is definitely interesting as a value tight end option. He has at least seven targets in each of his last three games and is a guy the Jaguars look to ever since acquiring him from the Panthers.
5-star plays: George Kittle, Deebo Samuel
4-star plays: Eli Mitchell (if active), Jeff Wilson Jr. (If Mitchell is out), Jimmy Garoppolo, Dan Arnold, James Robinson
GPP Note: I don’t have much full stacking interesting either of these teams, but man that Niners are close.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Vegas odds:
Total: 49.0
Line: GB -2.5
Rundown:
We’ll get started with the Packers and likely one of the chalkiest players on the whole slate, AJ Dillon. With Aaron Jones expected to miss a few weeks, AJ Dillon should step in and be the man here. He comes in as the highest point per dollar running back option in our Domination Station on both sites. He’s an elite one-off option here. If you want to get different in tournaments, I think the Packers stack and fading Dillon is an interesting route. I love Dillon, don’t get me wrong, but people will naturally fall off the Packers stack with having their running back in their lineup. The Vikings defense hasn’t been anything impressive, so I love the Aaron Rodgers to Davante Adams stack here. From the Vikings, I want to like the stack because their offense funnels fantasy points to the usual suspects in Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen, but this Packers defense has been incredible. Over the past three weeks, they’ve held Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, and Russell Wilson to a combined 34 points. I do still think the Vikings stack is in play for tournaments, but I’ll likely go elsewhere in my single entry and cash lineups just because I do think this Packers defense is legit. I’ll still get to Cook and those pass-catchers with plenty of ownership, but the stack worries me a little bit.
5-star plays: AJ Dillon, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook
4-star plays: Adam Thielen, Kirk Cousins
GPP Note: I love the Rodgers to Adams stack for some leverage on Dillon lineups, but Dillon will be a core for most formats. If you stack up the Packers with Rodgers and Adams you can run them back with any of the Cook, Thielen, or Jefferson options. Then if you stack up the Vikings in tournaments, Dillon and Adams are staring back at you as elite run-back options. As I type this I actually don’t even hate stacking the Packers with Dillon in the stack, he has pass-catching ability and you’re just locking in points at that point.
NFL season is upon us! DFSArmy VIP Members had a big season last year and are in for some big things again this season! We will have cheat sheets, breakdowns, and many other tools to help make you successful in the most popular fantasy sport there is.
Baltimore Ravens @ Chicago Bears
Vegas odds:
Total: 45.5
Line: Bal -6.0
Rundown:
We’ll round out the early games starting with the Ravens as they head into Soldier Field. I’ll almost always have interest in a Ravens stack simply due to Lamar Jackson’s ability to put up points in a hurry and has a huge floor and ceiling due to his rushing ability. He’s generally a guy that I single stack due to a lot of his production coming on the ground but I think you can pair him up with either Mark Andrews or Marquise Brown and feel good about it here. I actually don’t even hate saving a little salary and going down to Rashod Bateman. He has at least six targets in each game this season and at least eight in back-to-back games, he’s been really consistent and if he finds the end zone he’s in for a big fantasy game. I’ll stay away from this Ravens backfield even after they released Le’Veon Bell it sounds like they’ll be getting Latavius Murray back here. From the Bears, Justin Fields has been sneaky good over his last couple of games against good defenses in San Francisco and Pittsburgh as well. I don’t hate him as a value quarterback option and if you want to get real crazy throw Darnell Mooney in there with him as well, but that’s deep GPPs only on that. Then David Montgomery returned before the bye and looked great in limited work, you can go right back to him here at a really nice price tag. The Ravens have been pretty good against the run, but this price tag is nice on him.
5-star plays: Lamar Jackson
4-star plays: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman, Justin Fields, David Montgomery
GPP Note: The Ravens will be a stack I’m interested in and the more I look at it the more I love the Jackson to Bateman hook-up, but Brown and Andrews have been the main stacking options with Andrews this season.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Las Vegas Raiders
Vegas odds:
Total: 50.0
Line: Cin -1.0
Rundown:
On to the afternoon slate where we get a big 50 point implied total to kick things off. We’ll get started with the Bengals, where I do think I’ll have some full-stack interest, as Joe Burrow has shown somewhat of an upside this season and has at least 34 pass attempts in four of his last five games. The nice thing with the Bengals stack is you have a bunch of ways to stack up Burrow. He’s a guy I would want to double stack since he doesn’t run all that much, so guys like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are going to be my favorite options here. They have a combined 46% target share on the season and we know the upside Chase comes with while Higgins brings a nice floor. You can throw Tyler Boyd in there as a consideration as well, he’s just been really volatile this season. Then, of course, Joe Mixon. The Raiders aren’t great against the run and Mixon has at least 25 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. From the Raiders, the Derek Carr stack is interesting and I do think this is one of the higher-scoring games on the slate. You can pair him up pretty easily with Darren Waller if you want to single stack and then guys like Hunter Renfrow and Bryan Edwards if you want to double down. We know Renfrow brings a nice floor to your lineup each week. Josh Jacobs has had a really slow season but has seen his snap percentage increase each of the last three weeks setting him up nicely here, I like him as a one-off for tournaments.
5-star plays: Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, Darren Waller
4-star plays: Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow
GPP Note: Both of these offenses are really interesting. If you’re stacking up that Bengals side of things you get nice run-back options with Waller and Jacobs. Then if you go to the Raiders stack you can run it back with any of Chase, Mixon, Higgins, and even Boyd. There are a lot of options in this game.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Vegas odds:
Total: 49.0
Line: Ari -2.5
Rundown:
I’ll start with the Cardinals, but honestly, we’re going to need some news before we can dig all that deep into them. Both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins come into this one as questionable after missing the previous two weeks. Keep an eye on the injury reports throughout the week on their availability because this is a nice matchup and one that I would be all over the Cardinals stack on if they’re good to go. One consistent piece we know of is James Conner with Chase Edmonds out. He’s been a touchdown machine this season and will continue to be the workhorse with Edmonds out and is a nice running back option here. From Seattle, they were shut out by Green Bay last week in Russell Wilson’s return to action. I’ll be curious to see if that was due to Wilson coming back rusty or if the Packers just did their job. That being said, I will have some Seattle interest here with Wilson and his receivers, specifically Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. They’re probably more of a GPP stack just because I don’t know what Wilson can actually do confidently with that finger injury. It sounds like Chris Carson could be back here but if he plays he’ll likely be on some sort of snap-count, so not really a guy I’ll have a ton of interest in here.
5-star plays: Arizona TBD, James Conner
4-star plays: Arizona TBD, Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
GPP Note: I’ll like the Arizona stack a lot of Murray is able to go and even more if Hopkins can go as well, if Murray is out you can throw all that out the window, however. Seattle is more of a secondary stack for me but we know the upside they have when they’re running right.
Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs
Vegas odds:
Total: 56.0
Line: KC -2.5
Rundown:
We round the slate out with an absolute monster of a game as the Cowboys head into Kansas City as 2.5 point dogs. We’ll start with the Cowboys where the full stack is going to be in play in all formats. We know this Chiefs defense has been rough this season and Dallas’s strength lies within this offense. Dak Prescott is going to be a great quarterback option here and you can stack him up with CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and even Dalton Schultz for some savings. I do like double stacking Prescott, so go get yourself a few of these guys. Michael Gallup did return last week to play 53% of snaps and received five targets. I like him as a cheap second receiving option on this team as well. Then we get to Ezekiel Elliot who should be able to do whatever he wants here. He had a nice bounce-back game last week against the Falcons and a guy I like going back to as a running back option here but not a guy I would include in a Dallas stack, but do like him to run back with a Chiefs stack which we will get to now. Patrick Mahomes bounced back in a big way last time out going for 400+ passing yards and five touchdowns against the Raiders. The Chiefs are going to be an elite stack as well here with guys like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Outside of those two you can make a case for Mecole Hardman, but it’s pretty thin beyond the two big names. It sounds like Clyde Edwards-Helaire will return here which will hurt Darrel Williams a good bit. This makes the backfield pretty much a stay away from me right now until somebody takes control of it.
5-star plays: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill
4-star plays: Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup, Mecole Hardman
GPP Note: These are two of the best stacks on the slate, plain and simple.
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your NFL DFS game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your NFL membership each and every month!
–> Join the Winning Team Now! <–
