NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 11/10/2021

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

C Christian Wood $9200

HOU vs DET

A 13 game slate means all the studs will be playing, spreading out the ownership. With Nikola Jokic suspended, there already is value available. There are some teams on a back-to-back and several players questionable so it is looking like another stars and scrubs slate. Devin Eubanks just dominated the Thunder. At a cheap price today, he could pick up some ownership. Jonas Valanciunas gets that juicy matchup against Oklahoma City today. At $100 cheaper than Wood, he should garner more ownership especially if Brandon Ingram is ruled out. Wood’s outlook also depends on a questionable teammate. That would be Kevin Porter Jr. If KPJ is out, the field should be heavy on Jalen Green and Jae’Sean Tate. Do not forget about Wood as he would receive a sizeable boost against the Pistons who have allowed the 7th most DKpts to opposing centers this season.

Isaiah Stewart and Kelly Olynyk are not going to be able to stop Wood. The Pistons have the 2nd-lowest rebounding rate in the league at 47.5%. Wood averages 11.8rebs on the year. Detroit allows the 2nd-most 3s to opposing centers, another aspect of Wood’s game. Even if KPJ is ruled out early, Wood’s ownership will not be high as his price tag will keep people off of him. It is only a 68min sample size but with KPJ off the court this year, Wood has a 29.3% usage rate averaging 1.54FPM. This is unsustainable but the improvement would be massive if Porter is out. Wood can threaten for a 20-20 game here. There is no game total yet but the spread is only at 1.5 in favor of the Rockets. If the Rockets do pull away at home, Wood likely is the guy who inflicted most of the damage.

 

PF/C Draymond Green $6700

GSW vs MIN

When Green is priced under 7k, I target him. He contributes in every single fantasy category. With Stephen Curry and the way Jordan Poole is playing right now, he has 2 shooters who can turn his passes into assists. Green continues to play small-ball center which boosts his rebounding numbers. He is a high-IQ player so he will be able to score some baskets. Green is a nightly triple-double threat. The Warriors play the Timberwolves tonight, an opponent who plays at the 8th fastest pace and is league average in defensive efficiency. They have the worst rebounding rate in the league at 47.1%. The Wolves allow the 2nd most DKpts to opposing PFs. Green is an elite defender and the puzzle pieces fit together for that as well. The Wolves turn the ball over 17.2 times a game, 2nd highest in the league. They have been blocked the 6th most this year. Too many things work in favor of Draymond tonight.

This game has a 221.5 total with the Warriors favored by 7.5. D’Angelo Russell is healthy so hopefully he can help keep this game close. Green has not hit value for nearly two weeks now but that is a result of blowouts. He should play around 35mins in close games. Draymond is a low-usage player but averages 1.07FPM. In a perfect matchup like this, he should outpace that number and is a threat for 8x. His game log will keep people off of him. The best values are the Green’s in Denver who also happen to take up a PF slot. With Green priced in the mid-range, stars and scrubs builds will naturally eliminate him from lineups. He should be priced above 7k. Tonight could be the night Green notches his first triple-double of the season.

 

PG Devonte’ Graham $6200 / PG/SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker $5800

NOP vs OKC

The Pelicans have been a tough time to read this year. Other than Valanciunas smashing every night, the others are inconsistent players. NAW was a most improved player contender coming into the year. He started well but has struggled recently. Brandon Ingram being out should have benefited both of the Pelicans guards but Graham has been rather mediocre. Maybe a date with the Thunder could solve the problem. Both teams are looking towards the future but that might just mean this game is a good one for fantasy purposes. There is no point total but the spread is at -4 in favor of the Pelicans. Graham and NAW have not shot the ball well. It will be interesting to see who Lu Dort guards. I would prefer to roster the guard who is not matched up against him. My guess is he will be on Graham but that is just a hunch.

With Ingram off the court this year, NAW has a usage rate of 24.5% averaging 0.82FPM. Graham has a lower usage rate at 22.3% but is averaging 0.94FPM. NAW should contribute more with the peripherals because of his size but he has not. Part of the reason is because JoVal is hogging all the rebounds. Josh Hart is one of the best guard/wing rebounders in the league. If it comes down to shooting, I trust Graham to get hot from deep more. However, this matchup is good for just about every player. The Thunder have a few strong pieces but they just are not a good team right now. NAW has shown us huge upside and he could do it again in this spot. Since both have the ability to put up over 40+DKpts, they are too cheap. Take shots on these Pelicans guards especially if Ingram is out again.

 

SG/SF Duncan Robinson $3700

MIA @ LAL

This play depends on the Heat injuries. Though I try not to give contingent plays, the Heat are on the first leg of a back-to-back. That increases the chances the questionable players are ruled out. Tyler Herro is the important piece as Robinson would close the game if Herro is unavailable. That would push Robinson’s mins into the 30s. If Bam Adebayo is out, there will be more shots to go around for the rest of the starters as Dewayne Dedmon would start. Robinson’s game log is quite insane to look at. He has only attempted 3s in the last 5 games. There has not been a single 2 pointer attempted. The Lakers allow the 9th most 3pt attempts this year. If Herro is out, Robinson would get extended run in a sneaky spot that suits his play style.

Taking Herro off the court, Robinson has 18.1% usage rate averaging 0.71FPM. He is a sharpshooter so he has a low usage rate. He does not do much else on the court. That is a concern but he is usually priced between $4500-$5000. This is a significant discount in what could be an expanded role for him tonight. Robinson is only shooting 34% this season from 3. He was a 45% and 41% shooter from deep the last two seasons. Shooting dependent players have a low floor. Robinson however, is an elite shooter. Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler can set him up with good looks and if Robinson can get going, he is going to attempt 10+ 3s. A hot shooting game would mean a possibility for 10x. Robinson is another value piece that allows you to fit another stud into your lineup on a slate filled with them.

 

Just missed the cut: De’Aaron Fox, Fred VanVleet, Gordon Hayward, Jalen Suggs, Lonnie Walker IV, Bones Hyland

 

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…

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