NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 11/1/2021

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

PG Trae Young $9300

ATL vs WAS

The pricing is the first thing that stands out today. Many players are overpriced, but Young is priced where he usually is. With Ja Morant right there with Young, he could take away some of that ownership. The Wizards have been playing at a slower pace this season, but that is expected with Russell Westbrook now out of town. Their defense still is not good. Daniel Gafford is currently questionable with a knee injury. He will not affect whether I want to roster Young but it would be nice if he is out for the sake of a better matchup without his rim protection. Young has a 31.1% usage rate averaging 1.27FPM. He was at 32.7% and 1.35FPM last season. This could be due to the fact that the Hawks are healthy.

It is clear that Trae is the leader of this Hawks team. He will get his and as we have seen before, if he is feeling it, he can be unguardable. A healthy team helps Young’s passes to be converted into assists. With talented offensive weapons around him, defenses cannot solely focus on Trae. He does shoot better when he plays at home. The Hawks played the Wizards recently in which Young shot 6-17. He still finished with 44.75DKpts. His 3pt attempts are slightly down to begin the year. He has not made more than two 3s in a game yet. That should change very soon because of how dangerous he is from beyond the arc.

 

SF Michael Porter Jr. $6200

DEN @ MEM

MPJ had 22DKpts at halftime last game against the Timberwolves. He then proceeded to miss every shot in the 2nd half. Porter has been shooting very poorly to start the year. He is supposed to be a high FG% player so he should be more efficient going forward. MPJ again provided a steal and assists to his points and rebound totals. As the #2 option behind Jokic, he will get it going sooner rather than later. He had his mins staggered with Jokic last game in the 4th quarter. If this were to continue, it would be significant as he would be the go-to option for those stints.

He has some double-double potential but it is the price that is intriguing. Many players have been priced up on this slate regardless of how they have played the first 2 weeks. MPJ’s price is cheap relative to everyone else. The SF position today seems to be a bit weak so Porter probably is double-digit owned. His recent form will surely drive people away. Josh Giddey looks to be the top SF option right now. MPJ is another player that people are panicking about. Shooters shoot and the fantasy points will start racking up. Do not let the first 2 weeks discourage you from any player if it is purely a matter of whether his shot is dropping or not.

 

PG Darius Garland $6200 / PG/SG Collin Sexton $5900

CLE @ CHA

With the way the Hornets games go, there always is at least 1 player on the opposing team that has a tournament-winning performance. The Cavaliers get that opportunity today and the whole team feels too cheap. This rotation is hard to predict since they have so many bigs and Ricky Rubio who can steal mins from the guards. Garland has been the safer option because of his assists and playing time. That will reflect in the ownership making Sexton an excellent tournament play. Both probably will be low-owned though. Last season, Sexton had a 29.7% usage rate averaging 1.03FPM. Garland was at 25.3% with 0.95FPM. This year, Sexton is at 28% with 0.86FPM. Garland has a 24.5% usage averaging 0.97FPM.

With the 3 7-footers lineup, it makes sense that Sexton is not producing as well. A 0.17 drop-off is a bit steep. In the right game environment, all Sexton needs to do is score well and he will earn the closing mins. There have been 2 games this season that Sexton has earned 35+ mins because of his play. He finished with 43 and 39.75DKpts in those games. Sexton is the boom-bust player that is well-suited for tournaments. I do not think it is impossible that both guards could have great games but I do not want to play the 2 together. Rubio should have a solid role which cuts into the 2 starting guards.

 

PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr. $5400 / C Steven Adams $4900

MEM vs DEN

Both of the Grizzlies’ big men are too cheap due to their recent performances. JJJ got off to a nice start in his first three games but since then, has cooled off tremendously. He is 4-25 from 3 in his last 3 games. When it comes to poor shooting, I always look for players who are not shooting the best as great buy-low options. They will regress towards the mean as the year goes on. With his size, Jackson will get rebounds. He is a good defender so his peripherals help his fantasy point total. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble because that is his biggest concern, he is too cheap for the kind of ceiling he possesses. The pricing for this slate is tight. JJJ is one of the few guys who have the potential to 8x in this price range.

Jackson’s teammate, Adams, also has the potential to return great value. Adams started off the season with 3 consecutive games of 33+DKpts but has followed those performances with 3 duds. He only played 18, 21, and 19 mins in those 3 games as 2 were blowouts, and the other was against the Warriors who play small. Nobody can stop Nikola Jokic, but Adams is the Grizzlies’ best bet to slow him down. They have played against each other quite a few times. Adams has had some stellar games against Jokic including 26pts-14rebs, 18-14, and 19-17 stat lines. If Adams can stay out of foul trouble, he can absolutely destroy this price tag with how often Ja Morant involves his big men in the pick and roll.

 

Just missed the cut: Nikola Jokic, T.J. McConnell (if Brogdon out), Eric Bledsoe

 

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…

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