Get your NFL DFS research started with a full game-by-game breakdown of this week’s NFL slate. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for NFL DFS Week 2:
Sep 9, 2021; Tampa, Florida, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) runs the ball against Tampa Bay Buccaneers outside linebacker Lavonte David (54) during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
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Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas odds:
Total: 45.0
Line: Den -6.0
Rundown:
We start week 2 off with a bit of a snoozer as the Broncos head down to Jacksonville to play the Jaguars who were embarrassed by the Texans in week 1… yeah it’s as bad as it sounds. It turns out Trevor Lawrence can’t play all the positions on the Jags, but provided at least a little bit of hope at the quarterback position for Jacksonville. That being said, we’ll start on the Denver side where I don’t really think this team will be all that stackable as long as Bridgewater is at quarterback. He’s more of a “don’t lose” guy than someone who is going to go out there and put the team on his back. Not to mention he had Jerry Jeudy go down with a pretty nasty ankle injury and will be out awhile which should open up a good chunk of snaps for guys like Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler. The main interest on the Broncos for me is with the running backs in Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. They split snap counts 50/50 in week one with Williams having more rushing attempts but Gordon had the big run leading to a 23.8 point fantasy day on DraftKings. I like taking the value on Javonte on DraftKings considering he had the same snap count and more rushing attempts, but people will chase the Gordon game from last week. They have a similar tag on FanDuel which is more in line where they should be. From the Jaguars, Lawrence had to throw a massive 51 times in week one, but I won’t have a whole lot of interest in this offense here considering how good the Broncos defense is. Urban Meyer doesn’t seem to know what he wants to do with his running game either. James Robinson led the group with a 64% snap count, but Carlos Hyde is doing just enough to be annoying. Overall, it’s really just the Denver running game, specifically Javonte Williams for me with minimal from the Jacksonville side.
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Javonte Williams (DraftKings)
GPP Note: I just don’t see the need to stack up these offenses, but I have no issue with a one-off or two in the running game.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Vegas odds:
Total: 48.0
Line: Buf -3.5
Rundown:
We’ll start game two with the Buffalo side, where this offense was a bit underwhelming in week one. The Miami defense is sneaky good against the pass as well, but Josh Allen and the crew have proven to be pretty matchup proof. The one thing that would keep me off of stacking up Allen and Stefon Diggs would be Xavien Howard who will likely draw the shadow in this matchup. Miami can be beaten on the ground though which boosts the floor and ceiling of Allen and brings Devin Singletary into play. Zack Moss was a surprise healthy inactive in week one which really opened the door for Singletary to take the lead role. If we assume that’s the case again here I have no issue taking the value on him as an RB2. From the Miami side, they somewhat remind me of Denver, where I don’t think Tua Tagovailoa is really going to win you anything, but he’s not going to lose you anything either from a real-life football standpoint. I just don’t see the upside against a solid defense that Buffalo can throw at them. One thing to note here is that Will Fuller is back from his suspension and should take over as the WR1 on this team meaning the target share for DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle may decrease.
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Devin Singletary
GPP Note: If you’re 150 entering, you’ll likely fall on some Bills stacks, but I’m not all that interested in this game, but do like a few one-offs in guys like Singletary and some of these WR pieces.
Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns
Vegas odds:
Total: 48.0
Line: Cle -12.5
Rundown:
Cleveland comes in as one of the heaviest favorites on the slate at home hosting the Texans here. Odell Beckham comes into this one as questionable again as he recovers from an ACL injury he suffered last season, so keep an eye on that news. This offense put up some good numbers against the Chiefs in week one, particularly the backfield with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. I like Chubb a lot in this matchup, I was pretty heavy on James Robinson last week due to this soft Texans defense and if we think the Browns get up early here we could see a big workload for these guys, Chubb in particular as he’s the workhorse. You can make a case for full stacking this offense with Mayfield, Chubb, and a receiver, but I may just stick to the running backs with the thinking they get up big early. The Domination Station has Nick Chubb rated at a 97 this week with a 32 DvP… tough to beat that, he’s a top RB play on this slate for me. From the Houston side I’m not sure there is a ton to love. Tyrod Taylor will provide a nice floor due to his rushing ability, but I think this Cleveland front is going to get to him with ease like Jacksonville wasn’t able to do last week. Their backfield is a mess as well with guys like David Johnson, Mark Ingram, and Phillip Lindsay all seeing a substantial amount of snaps. If I had to pick one I would probably lean with David Johnson or Phillip Lindsay just because they have the pass-catching upside in this spot, in a game where they will likely be trailing and forced to throw the ball.
5-star plays: Nick Chubb
4-star plays: Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt
GPP Note: The Cleveland side is pretty clearly the one you’ll want here, but I’m more focused on this running game as I expect Cleveland to be ahead for most of the game.
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Cincinnati Bengals @ Chicago Bears
Vegas odds:
Total: 44.5
Line: Chi -3.0
Rundown:
We’ll start with the Cincinnati side of things where Joe Burrow and Ja’marr Chase showed why they had so much success in college. People were down on Chase coming into the season because he struggled with drops in the preseason, but to be down on a guy because of drops was always odd to me… he’s a receiver, he’ll figure it out, getting open with separation is the goal and the catches will follow. Chase showed his upside in week one and looks like a solid option again here as the Bears secondary looks to be in shambles. I actually think you can stack up this offense a bunch of different ways due to how many weapons there are in Mixon, Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Mixon had a big week one with an insane 33 touches flashing some pass-catching abilities too. If you do stack this offense, Burrow and his receivers are cheap enough to make Mixon viable as well. I like this team as a GPP stack that gets overlooked to the implied total. As for the Bears, they’re a disaster right now. I do think there is something to starting Andy Dalton in week one against that tough Rams D and that we’ll see more Justin Fields from here on out, and what better way to roll him out than against this terrible Bengals defense? Regardless, Dalton will still be in there to be annoying enough to kill both their value. If you’re stacking the Bengals side I would probably look at running it back with guys like David Montgomery and Allen Robinson with a pinch of Darnell Mooney.
5-star plays: Joe Mixon
4-star plays: Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Ja’Mar Chase, Allen Robinson, David Montgomery
GPP Note: I really think the Bengals could be sneaky here due to the implied total in this one. The Bears secondary was shredded in week one, look for the Bengals to exploit that in this one.
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Vegas odds:
Total: 49.5
Line: SF -4.0
Rundown:
Where do we start with the Niners? Raheem Mostert pretty much killed half the fields lineups in week one, and is now out for the season which opens up a can of worms in this Niners backfield. Rookie Trey Sermon was a healthy inactive in week one but will likely be active in this one due to Mostert being out. I do think people will chase Elijah Mitchell after his performance last week, but my gut tells me they want to at least see what they have in Sermon considering they used more draft capital on him. If you want to get silly for the Milly, I have no issue throwing a dart on Sermon in hopes that he’s the workhorse from the jump and just runs with this job. Deebo Samuel ate up the Lions in week one, receiving 12 targets, catching nine of them for 189 yards. He did all this while Brandon Aiyuk basically watched. It was an odd weak from Shanahan and his coaching staff with question marks surrounding Sermon and Aiyuk, but we know these guys have talent and a part of me almost thinks maybe there was some off the field stuff that he was punishing them for, but we’ll need more clarity on this situation as we get deeper into the week. I do have a good amount of interest in George Kittle here however, he comes in with a 97 rating in the Domination Station and should be able to eat up the Eagles over the middle of the field. From the Eagles, Jalen Hurts looked the part of a franchise quarterback last week and will look to carry that into this one. Although this matchup is going to be much more difficult against a good defensive front that the Niners will throw at him. That being said, if he can buy enough time and scramble out of the pocket to give these receivers some time, he should find some room to throw. The Niners lost their best cornerback in Jason Verrett last week which will make life easier for these Eagles wideouts. Due to how strong the Niners are upfront and at linebacker, I’ll likely stay away from guys like Miles Sanders and Dallas Goedert however. Mainly just Hurts and these receivers in deep GPPs, not guys I want to play in cash due to the matchup though.
5-star plays: George Kittle, Deebo Samuel
4-star plays: Jaylen Hurts, Jalen Reagor, DeVonta Smith
GPP Note: We need more clarity from the Niners side of things to sure up what they’ll be doing on offense this week, but if we start to get news that Trey Sermon and Brandon Aiyuk are back on the field getting first-string reps I’ll be all over them, but until then their GPP darts at best with my main interest being in Kittle and Samuel from this game.
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas odds:
Total: 45.0
Line: NO -3.5
Rundown:
I hate to say it, but the Saints beat up on my Packers in week one, as this offense got whatever they wanted. Jameis Winston looked solid, but it doesn’t appear Sean Payton is going to let Winston air it out as Bruce Arians did in Tampa which will keep his fantasy value down a bit. I still don’t hate him and this offense in this spot due to how middle of the road this Panthers defense is, but outside of Alvin Kamara, Winston really doesn’t have a ton of weapons to throw the ball to. One guy I want to keep an eye on in this passing game is Adam Trautman as he got six targets in week one and played 82% of snaps, he could make sense as a punt TE option. Alvin Kamara will obviously be your main piece from the Saints, he’ll be a top RB option on the week as usual. People may shy off Marquez Callaway after a dud in week one, but I warned you about the Jaire Alexander matchup. He should have much better luck here and could get overlooked even as this team’s “WR1”. From Carolina, Christian McCaffery is just nuts. He didn’t score a TD and was held under 100 rushing yards, yet managed to score 27.7 DraftKings points in week one. This Saints defense is really tough on running backs, but he’s proven he can get it done in many different ways, so if you have the money to get to him, don’t shy away. I had a good amount of interest in this Panthers offense in week one and they looked pretty good, but now is the time I’m going to jump off simply due to how legit this Saints defense is.
5-star plays: Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffery
4-star plays: Marquez Callaway, Adam Trautman (punt)
GPP Note: It’s probably just the running backs in this one for me with sprinkles off one-offs in that New Orleans receiving game.
Check out Geek’s “First Look Lineup” construction video as well as you prepare for week 2!
Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas odds:
Total: 47.5
Line: LAR -4.0
Rundown:
We’ll start with the Rams side of things, and man this offense is going to be scary with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. They looked great in week one and will look to expand on that here. As we got deeper into the week last week, I started to fall in love with the Russell Wilson/DK Metcalf stack due to the Colts tendency to give up the deep ball, and well… I was right, but it was Tyler Lockett that was hauling in the deep passes, but that’s beside the point. The Colts will get burned deep so I like attacking this passing game that the Rams will throw at them. They mentioned it a lot in the Sunday Night Football broadcast, but it’s pretty obvious Stafford and Cooper Kupp have a pretty solid relationship going and I think they’re in for a huge year, I like going right back to them here along with Robert Woods and even Tyler Higbee at a cheap TE price tag. Higbee saw six targets in week one and with Gerald Everett out of town, he’s going to be the guy, I like him a lot this season. We did get a little clarity on this backfield as well, Darrell Henderson played 94% of snaps compared to Sony Michel’s 6%, so Henderson is the guy you’ll want going forward, but I don’t know that I would feel thrilled with the matchup here. From the Colts side, it’s going to be a pretty hard no on most of these guys due to how good this Rams defense is. I want to find at least a flyer to take a chance on which I guess would be Michael Pittman Jr. at a cheap price tag, but I think we can do better on this slate, the Colts are a pretty easy fade for me.
5-star plays: Cooper Kupp
4-star plays: Matthew Stafford, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee
GPP Note: LOVEEEE the Rams stack here, I’ll be overweight on them and hope they get overlooked similar to how the Seahawks did last week.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas odds:
Total: 47.0
Line: Pit -5.5
Rundown:
The Raiders played a thriller on Monday Night Football and now head into Pittsburgh as road dogs. They’ll get a matchup with a really tough Steelers defense, so I don’t know that we’re going to find a ton to love here. You can make a case for Darren Waller at TE due to the insane 19 targets he received last week, but with TJ Watt and company manning the middle of the field, I think we can do better, let the casuals chase that Waller game. Outside of him, I think we can pretty safely move on from the Raiders this week. From the Steelers, Najee Harris is a guy I’m going to have a good amount of interest in. If we look at the Domination Station below, he’s the highest projected point per dollar play on the Steelers on FanDuel and second behind Roethlisberger on DraftKings. He played 100% of the snaps in week one. They’re clearly okay running the rookie out there and I love the price tag on him.
I’ll always have some interest in Diontae Johnson as well especially on DraftKings where you get the full point PPR bonus. He just gets so many of those short looks that give him such a safe floor. Last week he had 10 targets and was out with injury for a while, he’s a solid option here as well. You can make case for a full stack here if you want to throw Roethlisberger in with these two, but it’s definitely not my favorite thing to do on this slate, but in play nonetheless.
***Update – Josh Jacobs has been ruled out for this game, check out my breakdown of the Raiders backfield situation below!!***
5-star plays: Najee Harris
4-star plays: Diontae Johnson, Ben Roethlisberger, Chase Claypool
GPP Note: I’ll likely full-on fade the Raiders, but I’ll have a good amount of interest in the Pittsburgh side of things in a good matchup with this Raiders defense.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Vegas odds:
Total: 42.5
Line: NE -6.0
Rundown:
This might be the worst game on the slate from a fantasy perspective and if I could skip right over I would… there just isn’t much to love here. We’ll start with the Patriots where I’ll have interest in one guy and one guy only, that’s Damien Harris and I’ll probably make him more FanDuel specific. He’s a FanDuel guy for me because I think the touchdown equity is pretty high on him and doesn’t really have the catching opportunity that you’re looking for to take full advantage of the PPR format that DraftKings offers. That being said, he got 23 rushing attempts in week one and looks to be the workhorse of this team, and this Jets defense isn’t going to do a whole lot to get in his way. Speaking of the Jets, Zach Wilson showed signs of being a pretty solid NFL quarterback in week one, but not a guy I’m going to have a ton of interest in here. He did show a lot of trust in Corey Davis however. Davis went out and had 97 yards on his way to two touchdowns. If you’re looking for Jets exposure, he’s the guy I want.
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Damien Harris, Corey Davis
GPP Note: There really isn’t much to love from this game for me, the total sucks, this game sucks, MOVING ON!
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Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals
Vegas odds:
Total: 51.0
Line: Ari -5.0
Rundown:
Onto the afternoon games, where we have some REALLY nice implied totals, this one is the lowest of all the games and would still be higher than any noon game on the slate, safe to say we’ve made it to the meat and potatoes boys and girls! I’ll start with the Vikings who looked really flat in all aspects last week, which is par for the course of the NFC North. That being said, I mentioned it last week, even when this team doesn’t seem to be playing well, their fantasy impact is generally still pretty strong. They lost to the Bengals but still had three guys go over the 20 point fantasy mark on DraftKings with Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Kirk Cousins. Now, I don’t have a ton of interest in Cousins because I think he’s pretty terrible but he does enough to get these other guys to produce. He might have some trouble with the pass rush of the Cardinals that put on an absolute show in week one, but again, I have a hard time thinking guys like Cook, Thielen, and Jefferson aren’t going to produce as they normally do. I was all over the Titans receivers last week due to how weak this Cardinals secondary is, but it apparently doesn’t matter when the quarterback doesn’t have time to get rid of the ball. If the Vikings can do a good enough job keeping Captain Kirk upright in this one, I like their chances to have big games. From the Cardinals side, Kyler Murray is back and looking like a true MVP candidate. He’s going to be a guy I’ll have interest in all year in all formats due to the floor and ceiling he gives you with his legs. This Vikings secondary is pretty terrible as well so a full stack of Murray and Hopkins is in play again and I don’t hate throwing Chase Edmonds in there either due to his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. You can stack this game up six ways to Sunday.
5-star plays: Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins
4-star plays: Chase Edmonds
GPP Note: Before I come off too strong on both of these stacks… they are expensive, so don’t expect any sort of discount on them. You’ll need to find some value pieces along the way, but the raw potential here is really nice.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas odds:
Total: 52.0
Line: TB -12.5
Rundown:
Tampa is right there with the Browns as the largest favorites on the slate as they host the Falcons in this one. We’ll start with Atlanta who looked like one of the worst teams in football in week one. Due to the defense they’ll see here, I think it’s pretty easy to fade them entirely. You can make a case for Mike Davis on both sites at his price tag, but I just don’t love the matchup and think you can find more upside elsewhere. From Tampa, they should be able to do whatever they want offensively here. If you thought the Cowboys made their offense look good, the Falcons say “hold my beer”. You can fully stack this Tampa offense again here, Tom Brady is a nice price on both sites and his receivers aren’t all that priced up either. I will say, Mike Evans has a tendency to always do the opposite of what I say, so I’ll just stay in the middle on him. I do think Antonio Brown is going to have a comeback season of the ages though, so I like going right back to him and Chris Godwin here. Apparently, Ronald Jones is out of Bruce Arians doghouse and named the starter for this game, so if you trust that you can go to him in your stacks or as a one-off as well, but I might make him prove it first.
5-star plays: Tom Brady, Antonio Brown
4-star plays: Mike Davis, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Kyle Pitts
GPP Note: The Tampa side is the side I want here, I mean look at the ratings these guys have in the Domination Station below…
Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers
Vegas odds:
Total: 55.5
Line: Lac -3.0
Rundown:
This one should be a fun one between these two teams, we’ll start with the Cowboys. Dallas looked really good as a whole in week one but did lose Michael Gallup which should open up even more looks for CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. Both of these guys saw at least 15 targets in week one and are going to be top 10 receiving options for me until Gallup gets back. Dak Prescott showed no signs of rust in his first game back from injury either, you can safely stack him up with these two receivers without thinking twice. One guy that people may be down on is Ezekiel Elliott who had just 11 carries in week one, but I’m going to chalk that up to them realizing they likely weren’t going to have a whole lot of success running the ball against that Tampa front. He still played 84% of snaps which is good enough for me to feel good going back to him here at a really cheap price tag. From the Chargers, it’s going to be really hard not to love Justin Herbert here. This Dallas defense isn’t pretty and we saw that last week with Tampa’s success on offense. No, the Chargers aren’t Tampa, but I would argue their offense has more splash upside due to the way Herbert can sling it. Love stacking things up with him and Keenan Allen and adding Austin Ekeler in there as well. Ekeler surprisingly didn’t see a single target in week one which is odd for one of the best pass-catching backs in football, but that will regress back to the mean with time, and more often than not people can be hesitant to play a teams running back in their stack, not me.
5-star plays: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Justin Herber, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler
4-star plays: Ezekiel Elliott, Jared Cook, Mike Williams
GPP Note: Both sides of this one are stackable. From Dallas, I think my favorite would be to go Prescott/Lamb/Cooper while on the Chargers side I love the Herbert/Ekeler/Allen stack if you can find the money on each side. Otherwise don’t be afraid to throw a guy like Cedrick Wilson in there who should see a bump in snaps and targets with Michael Gallup being out.
Tennesse Titans @ Seattle Seahawks
Vegas odds:
Total: 53.5
Line: Sea -5.5
Rundown:
Last but not least, we’ll round the slate off starting with the Titans. Tennesse let a lot of people down last week, in part due to how good the Cardinals played them defensively but I think they have a nice bounce-back opportunity here. Our Domination Station shows the Seahawks to be 27th in DvP against opposing wide receivers which should stand out to you for Julio Jones and AJ Brown who people may be off of due to their bad games in week one, I have no issue going right back to them here. I mentioned it last week but Derrick Henry just is never a guy I get a ton of especially early on in the season. You’re hoping he can break a long run more often than not and I just think we can get more safety without sacrificing upside at this price tag. I don’t love the price tag on Ryan Tannehill which will likely keep me off this stack as a whole, but I do have interest in his two wideouts. From Seattle, I mentioned how bad the Seahawks secondary was… well the Titans are dead last in DvP against opposing wide receivers and we saw that last week when Kyler Murray picked them apart. Russell Wilson has a very similar skillset as Murray so I like going back to the Seahawks here. If you follow me on Twitter (@MadnessDFS), you know by now that I never, and I mean never get Tyler Lockett right. I mentioned earlier how I was heavy on Metcalf which should have told you that Lockett was going to go nuts (he did), so by saying I like Metcalf and Lockett here you should immediately fade Lockett. Jokes aside both WRs are great options against this defense and guys I’ll have exposure to. Rashaad Penny was banged up last week and comes into this one as doubtful which solidifies the snaps for Chris Carson as well, making him a viable running back option to round out the slate.
5-star plays: Julio Jones, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Russell Wilson
4-star plays: Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, Chris Carson
GPP Note: All four of the main wide receivers in this game are my main priorities followed by Wilson and the running backs, but if you’re on the Tannehill/Julio/Brown stack, don’t let me talk you off of them. I just think he’s a bit overpriced for me.
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