Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/26:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Alek Manoah
- John Means
- Freddy Peralta
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Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays (-290)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Rays – Shane Baz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. From a baseball fan perspective, I am geeking out at a Luzardo vs Baz match-up. The issue is that Luzardo has yet to live up to the elite prospect hype while Baz certainly showed his upside in his debut. Baz probably ends up limited to about 5 innings but he has enough upside to be a GPP winner today. Luzardo gets a strikeout-prone offense against LHPs but he’s also very capable of getting lit up early.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Zunino, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds (-172)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josh Rogers
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Mahle has been really bad at home this season, with an ERA over 6 and allowing 19 HRs in just over 72 innings. The Nationals have been pesky of late and Juan Soto has been a beast in the 2nd half of the season. The Reds’ playoff hopes are fading but they can get hot for the last week and make things interesting. I don’t love their lineup against LHPs but Castellanos has always destroyed LHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Kyle Farmer, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against LHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Royals – Kris Bubic
Tigers – Wily Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Royals offense has cooled a bit against DET but this game is very capable of being a sneaky shootout as I don’t trust either SP to be strong enough. I may not fully stack either side but a mini-stack is certainly in play. Salvy Perez has struggled the last few days in great match-ups but I can see him waking up with a double-dong in this one.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Nicky Lopez, Ryan O’Hearn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Willi Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against LHPs this season.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Pirates – Max Kranick
Phillies – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I have seen some rumors that we could see Adonis Medina starting for the Phillies. What really matters to me is the lineup they run out there as it’s going to be one of my favorite stacks on the slate. Harper is one of my favorite overall plays on the slate as he tries to get himself an MVP award as the season closes out.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 against LHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Matt Vierling
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays (-180) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Twins – Griffin Jax
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Jax has allowed 21 HRs in 72 innings this season with 14 of those coming by RHBs. That’s a terrible recipe against this TOR lineup. My Dinger of the Day call is going to be in this game. The Jays hit 3 HRs yesterday and I could see that number happening again in this one. Manoah has electric stuff and is definitely worthy of ownership.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Nick Gordon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels (-145)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. If Ohtani is lights out, dominant, in this game it could be his last start of the season on the mound. The Angels have had a disappointing season so I could see them trying to showcase him as the MVP over the last week. The Mariners’ offense has had some strong games recently and their dimming playoff hopes need a spark and for them to run off 7 in a row.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against LHPs this season.
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Houston Astros (-111) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Athletics – Paul Blackburn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I think we see some offense in this game despite the lack of success by OAK against a guy like Odorizzi. We basically know that Odorizzi is going to top out at 5 innings and the A’s NEED this game as they are in the same boat as the Mariners are at this point, but not quite as dire. The Astros lineup is capable of dominating anybody and I look for a guy like Alvarez to get hot down the stretch, heading into the postseason.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Yan Gomes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals (-160) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jake Woodford
Cubs – Keegan Thompson
Rundown:
We are still waiting on the total from Vegas. The Cardinals have been absolutely scorching hot as the season winds down and I see no reason to get off of the train today. The lineup has been great and getting production from everybody in it. Bader has been ridiculously hot over the last few games while Goldschmidt and O’Neill have continued their torrid second halves. Contreras has had success against Woodford and is basically the only Cubs bat I trust but you could look at Ortega, Happ, or Schwindel as well.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
4-star plays: Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Ortega, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox (-121)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Both of these guys are capable of showing dominance in any start but they are also very capable of allowing 9 hits in 4 innings and ruining a wet dream. I like the Red Sox side a bit more but I would say that E-Rod is more volatile than a guy like Montgomery is. I do think you can include both in your player pool but with a capped % of around 10. What we want in this game are the offenses as we very well could see 5-6 HRs hit tonight.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants (-172) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. What an interesting match-up as we see an SP in Senzatela who has allowed just 5 HRs in nearly 85 innings at Coors this season, against the team-leading the NL in HRs. Surprisingly, Senzatela hasn’t faced the Giants yet this season so we don’t have much to go on other than the Giants have an ISO of .201 with 27 HRs against the Rockies this season (18 games). Gausman has kind of limped to the finish line of the season and I just don’t think we can use him today.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: Brendan Rodgers
4-star plays: Garrett Hampson, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
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Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles (-125)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Orioles – John Means
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I believe the Rangers are going to follow Dunning with Allard so that could bring guys like Mancini and Mountcastle into play. Means is going to end up one of my favorite SPs on the slate as the Rangers have struggled MIGHTILY against LHPs this season. That team ISO below includes Gallo’s .269 ISO prior to being dealt to the Yankees.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Jose Trevino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against LHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-270) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
D’Backs – Humberto Mejia
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Urias has a shot at 20 wins this season as he sits at 18 so I think there’s a little motivation for a guy that has been so strong all year for the Dodgers. We know that the D’Backs are at their best against LHPs but Urias is a bit different as I think his struggles come from LHBs that can hit LHPs well. The Dodgers bats struggled against Gallen yesterday but I think they come out and hit Mejia hard.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Gavin Lux, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketal Marte, Carson Kelly
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Lorenzo Cain
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox (-160) @ Cleveland Indians
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Indians – Tristan McKenzie
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We saw the Indians spank Lance Lynn yesterday so I can’t rule out the same for Giolito. We know that Giolito has impressive upside but the Indians tend to surprise in spots like this. McKenzie was horrendous in his last start but I think he bounces back a little bit as I think we could see a different-looking CWS lineup as they sneak some rest in for some guys over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Braves – Undecided
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Philadelphia Phillies
- St Louis Cardinals (pending the Wrigley Wind)
MLB Dinger of the Day – Marcus Semien, Toronto
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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