Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/15:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Brandon Woodruff
- Huascar Ynoa
- Robbie Ray
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays (-172)
Pitchers:
Rays – Michael Wacha
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Blue Jays had been red hot going into Tuesday night and then they were shut down. I think they wake back up against the reverse split tendencies of Wacha. I know that Wacha has been pretty solid of late but I just have to trust this Toronto offense as they battle for a spot in the postseason. Ray is in a battle with Gerrit Cole for the Cy Young at this point and he gets a plus strikeout match-up, but needs to avoid the power of Cruz and Zunino.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Zunino, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 against RHPs this season.
Cincinnati Reds (-145) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Reds – Vladimir Gutierrez
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Gutierrez can do enough to be a viable option from this game but it’s really the Reds offense that I want to target. We know that Keller hasn’t panned out as an elite prospect and while he does have his strong moments, he allows far too much hard contact. Look for Votto and Moustakas to wake up a bit in this match-up with Castellanos and India continuing their solid form at the plate.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Joey Votto
4-star plays: Jonathan India, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs this season.
Houston Astros (-210) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Rangers – Kohei Arihara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Astros really blew it against Lyles last night as they were just dominated despite having great history against him. Much like the Blue Jays, I can see people backing off after their performance last night. That makes me want to double-down and double-down hard on them tonight. Arihara has been absolutely destroyed when pitching in Texas while Urquidy is solid enough to be a viable option with some volatility.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: Adolis Garcia
4-star plays: DJ Peters, Nick Solak
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
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St Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets (-153)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jon Lester
Mets – Tylor Megill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Megill is a guy that I just can’t seem to figure out. He was so strong for a while and once I came around to believing in him, he went to be subpar. Lester is a guy that has to be absolutely on to get out because he isn’t going to rack up strikeouts in important spots. I know the Mets can struggle against LHPs but I think tonight’s a night for them to sneak in some runs and they could be the top stack on the slate from an under-the-radar standpoint.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: Javy Baez, Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: James McCann, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against LHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves (-203)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Braves – Huascar Ynoa
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I will be the first to tell you that I overvalue Ynoa and his ability. Ynoa flashes such strong stuff that it’s hard to not like what he has to offer. He generally cruises and then makes a mistake or two and that could lead to 4 or 5 runs out of nowhere. He has a plus match-up as COL is by far worse on the road this season. The Braves haven’t hit Senzatela overly well in their careers but I am willing to overlook that as I think it’s a plus match-up for them to put some runs on the board.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Angels – Janson Junk
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. This is an interesting game as Keuchel has been absolutely atrocious but the Angels aren’t exactly denting the plate right now. Since this is my first look write-up, I will tell you that I believe Janson Junk is a created player and not an actual human pitcher for the Angels. It appears that he gave up a couple of HRs in his debut against TEX and that’s enough for me to believe that we want to be on the White Sox tonight as they eat junk all night. Yeah, I will be here all week.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against LHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox (-130) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Tanner Houck
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I actually love this pitching match-up but do think that BOS can get to Gonzales a little bit. They have a couple of guys with solid history against him while also having a couple of others that have historically smashed LHPs. Time for my weekly mention about how elite Houck’s stuff is but his lack of ability to harness it and eat innings while also getting Ks is really frustrating. Some day he is going to go 7 shutout innings with 10+ Ks and I will definitely have him rostered at that point.
BOS 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Jose Iglesias
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Seager
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-350)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Urias is looking like he is going to lead the majors in wins this season and that’s a great thing to see for an arm that seemingly has been around for 15 years (he’s only 25). He gets a decently strong match-up but ARI has been at their best against LHPs and there are a couple of D’Backs that have hit Urias well in their careers. The Dodgers line up in a great spot against Kelly as they have knocked him around in their match-ups. Look for them to hit a couple of HRs tonight.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carson Kelly, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Justin Turner
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Will Smith, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers (-213) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Tigers – Matt Manning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We saw both Peralta’s throw gems yesterday and now we could see at least 1 pitcher in this match-up do the same (Woodruff). Manning just hasn’t panned out at the MLB level yet despite being such a highly rated prospect. We all know that I don’t think this MIL team’s offense is good enough to win games in the postseason so they could struggle some tonight as they scored 0 in 11 innings yesterday.
MIL 5-star plays: Kolten Wong
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics (-145) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Royals – Mike Minor
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We could see a bunch of strikeouts in this one or we could see a handful of HRs hit by both sides. Salvador Perez just keeps hitting HRs and he’s about to break the MLB record for HRs by a C. The A’s have guys that can hit LHPs really well while the Royals are more centered around a couple of bats for their production against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha
4-star plays: Chad Pinder, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against LHPs this season.
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Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Indians – Cal Quantrill
Twins – Griffin Jax
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I really don’t know how to treat this game as the Indians’ offense has been ice-cold but Jax shouldn’t be somebody that dominates them. Quantrill has flashed strong stuff in the second half but the Twins have some guys who have had success against him and the game total is up there. I think I would prefer to stick with mini-stacks in this game and try to avoid the SPs at this point unless Jax is cheap enough for a dart throw SP2 slot on DK.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bradley Zimmer, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Luis Arraez
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
Miami Marlins (-121) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Nationals – Josh Rogers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get a Rogers vs Rogers match-up as both guys throw the ball with their left hand. We saw the Nationals do just enough against Luzardo to frustrate me yesterday but I think they struggle against Trevor in this one. I don’t know much about Josh Rogers but I do know that the Marlins are not a dangerous offense at all.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against LHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against LHPs this season.
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Giants – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Hearing some rumblings that this will be another bullpen game for the Giants. We need to learn their plans as the Padres have struggled of late but they NEED to wake up if they want to make the postseason. The Giants have a tough match-up with Musgrove but a few bats have had great success against him. This is one of those spots that I just don’t know what route to go.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Tommy La Stella
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies (-195)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Alec Mills
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Cubs got to Gibson enough yesterday while the Phillies bats struggled. I think the Phillies wake back up in this one as Mills just allows too much contact. There are a handful of PHI bats with success/HRs against Mills in their careers and I am going to ride Bryce Harper basically every day at this point.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Patrick Wisdom
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Brad Miller
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Yankees – Nestor Cortes Jr
Orioles – John Means
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against LHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Houston Astros
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Chicago White Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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