NFL Fantasy Football Best Ball Strategy – NFC North Summer Stock Report

I can’t blame anyone for not being fully in football mode yet. Maybe you are grinding MLB every night. Perhaps you are busy shipping six figures with our NASCAR, PGA, or NBA products. This is not a problem (especially if you have an extra 100k in your account), because I’ve been relentlessly drafting NFL best ball teams for months. And, I’m here to catch you up with all the news out of OTAs and the corresponding ADP moves.

We are going team by team, division by division, breaking down all the quad-pics and coach-speak moving players up or down draft boards this time of year.

Dec 23, 2018; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) reacts after his touchdown is confirmed via replay during the second half against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Fantasy Football Best Ball Report – NFC North

Let’s start with the biggest news this summer! (By the way, I’m using Underdog ADP when referenced….and we have a SWEET free offer to become a DFS Army VIP if you try them out!!)

Green Bay Packers

Every Packer pass catcher has seen their ADP sink like a led stone since the news dropped that Aaron Rodgers kinda/sorta demanded a trade. Davante Adams was the consensus first WR off the board, going around pick 7 or 8 overall. His ADP is now pick 18.1 and he has been passed by Tyreek Hill and Steph Diggs. I have seen him drop as far as pick 2.11 in recent Best Ball Mania drafts.

MVS and rookie Amari Rodgers are essentially free at identical ADPs of 193.8. Tonyan is no longer being drafted as a TE one, he’s now the 13^th player off the board at the position.

If you can stomach a little risk (in the large field tournaments you must), there is an opportunity here to buy. This is just a gut feeling, but I don’t think Aaron Rodger necessarily wants to be traded. I believe he wanted the pubic to know that he’s pissed at his boss (Packer GM Brian Gutekunst). Mission accomplished. He wanted to party in Hawaii with his girl, rather than toil at OTAs in Wisconsin. Mission very accomplished. As the reigning league MVP, he wants his annual salary to upped into the Mahomes/Dak Prescott range. Mission pending.

Jordan Love has not exactly set the world on fire in OTAs, giving the Packers even more incentive to cut Rodgers a really big check and bring him back into the fold. If this happens a month from now, those selecting Adams now will be getting at least a full round of value.

Chicago Bears

On a recent podcast with Chris Collinsworth, Bears Head Coach Matt Nagy said, “Andy is our starter. Again, I can’t predict anything. You know how it goes. There’s so many things that can happen between today and that Week 1, but Andy is our starter and Justin’s our No. 2. And we’re going to stick to this plan.”

Maybe that is their plan today, but plans change and I don’t believe for a second that they’ll stick to it for very long. You don’t trade significant draft capital for a first round for QB, only to have him sit behind Andy Fricking Dalton. In his Cincinnati heyday the Red Rifle was at best, slightly above replacement level. Last season, on a Cowboy team with elite wide receiving talent, he stunk.

I’ve already made the case for Justin Field in my best ball article on duel threat QBs. Since the Nagy interview I’ve noticed a small drop in where Fields is being drafted and I am happy to take advantage. In my last Best Ball Mania draft I scooped up Fields at pick 12.5. I believe he easily overtakes Dalton and proves to be a tremendous value when picked in this range. I have no problem stacking him with Allen Robinson (3rd round) or Darnell Mooney (10th round) at their current ADP.

A butter soft late-season schedule, coupled with an injury to Tarik Cohen allowed David Montgomery to become a league winning fantasy beast in 2020. I expected this would lead to him being severely overdrafted in 2021. So far this has not been the case. He currently going as in the 4th round as the 20th RB off the board.

A returning Cohen and freshly signed Damien Williams will likely cut into his passing down work, but there is still more the enough rushing volume and touchdown equity to pay off that price. The Geek made an animated case for Monte on the Bold Calls Podcast where he and Alan debated their RB rankings.

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Minnesota Vikings

It has been a relatively quite fantasy football offseason for the Vikings. They are an offense with condensed usage and their top players seem to be priced fairly. Dalvin Cook is the consensus number two overall pick behind McCaffrey. I agree with that ranking through my best ball drafting. He has the pass game involvement that Derrick Henry lacks, and more consistent rushing volume than Kamara.

Sophomore sensation Justin Jefferson is going as the WR8, pick 25 overall. I have no problem taking him on the 2/3 turn paired with an elite TE. There are a lot worse ways to start a draft than with McCaffrey, Jefferson, and Waller/Kittle.

I am only taking Kirk Cousins (144.9 ADP) to complete stacks with Jefferson, as a second or third QB. Wide Receiver independent there are plenty of other QBs I prefer in that range that provide some rushing upside.

Detroit Lions

In an interview with the Athletic, new Lion’s Offensive Coordinator Anthony Lynn heaped praise on Jamaal Williams, saying “Jamaal is what I’d call a classic ‘A’ back. I like to break the backs down into A and B. My ‘A’ backs are normally my bigger backs. They can run between the tackles, block probably a little better than a ‘B’ back, they can also run the perimeter. I can leave those guys in there for all three downs.”

After Lynn professed his love for Williams and Detroit flirted with the the ghost of Todd Gurley, D’Andre Swift owners started to panic. You don’t want to overreact to coach speak from spring OTAs. Swift is still the most talented back on this roster. That said, I’d much rather draft Williams at an ADP of 132.9 than Swift at 28.9. Even if Swift does remain the starter, Williams will have weekly roll that provides value at that price.

TJ Hockenson is the most talented pass catcher in Detroit. We all remember when Jared Goff turned Tyler Higbee into a PPR monster in late 2019. Tyrell “the gazelle” Williams and Breshad “Brett’s kid” Perriman are both injury prone and inconsistent. People are high Amon-Ra St. Brown, but he is a rookie drafted in the 4th round. I expect Goff to once again lean heavily on his gifted tight end. As the 5th TE off the board with an ADP of 60.8, Hock certainly isn’t free, but I think he’s a good bet to return value.

I will continue my NFL Best Ball Summer Stock Report series here next week with the NFC East. Continue to get excited for Fantasy Football Season with the legendary Bold Calls Podcast and our comprehensive 2021 NFL Draft Kit!