Up, up, down, down, left, right, left, right, B, A, select, start. If you grew up in the 80s you likely know this to be the Konami Code. You pressed these buttons on your 8-bit Nintendo controller to get 30 lives to play with instead of the standard 3. I don’t know who in the NFL fantasy football industry first used the term cheat code (Konami Code) to describe running quarterbacks, but they were wise. Finding dual-threat QBs has become a cheat code to success in most fantasy football formats….especially best balls.
2021 NFL Fantasy Football Strategy | The Dual-Threat QB
By now everyone is well aware of the advantage that a running QB provides, so the key is being able to identify the ones that are going to vastly outperform their draft slot. Drafting Lamar Jackson in 10th round in 2019 was a license to print money. Drafting Lamar (who had a good, but not great 2020 season) in the 1st or 2nd round was a death sentence.
To stretch the Contra metaphor one step further, DFS Army has a great track record of identifying these magic bullet QBs. Longtime listeners of the Bold Calls Podcast know that Alan and the Geek were way ahead of the market and ADP on Lamar Jackson in 2019. They touted Josh Allen so hard last season that I was worried they might move to Buffalo and start jumping through tables.
As the new guy on the NFL staff, I thought I’d take the first crack at identifying this year’s breakout QB. These are 3 dual-threat QBs I think can significantly outpace their current value (I’m using Underdog ADP) and help you contend for the playoffs regardless of format.
Dec 20, 2020; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (2) runs the ball against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Jalen Hurts (ADP 77.5, 7th round)
As a rookie with no real training camp or preseason, in an offense built for Carson Wentz, and no dynamic downfield pass catchers, Hurts showed flashes of fantasy football brilliance. In the 3 games that he started and finished, Hurts averaged 12.67 rushing attempts for 79.33 rushing yards. Those are incredible numbers for a quarterback. For comparison, Lamar Jackson only averaged 9.94 attempts for 62.81 yards in 2020.
While it’s highly unlikely that Hurts will sustain those absurd rushing averages over a larger sample size, his passing number has room to improve dramatically. The addition of Heisman winning receiver Devonte Smith will certainly help. With a full off-season to prepare as the starter and offensive system/game plan built to his talents, I believe Jalen Hurts finishes 2021 as a top-five fantasy QB. He is not being drafted as one.
Justin Fields (ADP 123.4, 11th round)
I cannot understand for the life of me why Justin Fields slipped to the 11th pick in the draft. He was a five-star recruit who is 6’3”, 227, and runs a 4.44 40 yard dash. He dominated Big Ten competition, completing over 70% of his passes as a Junior. He threw 7 touchdowns head-to-head against Trevor Lawrence in the semi-final, leading his team to a National Title Game appearance.
He landed in a decent spot to produce fantasy points right away. Chicago has an alpha, number one receiver in Allen Robinson. Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet are talented young pass catchers that can grow with Fields.
You can make an argument that Trey Lance is the better fantasy football dynasty pick in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but in redraft or best ball, I prefer Fields. That could change the the event Jimmy Garapolo gets injured or traded. I believe that Fields will have an easier time gaining immediate playing time over Andy Dalton than Lance will over Jimmy G.
Daniel Jones (ADP 158.9, 14th round)
After outperforming expectations as rookie, Danny Dimes was a popular late round QB pick last season. He bombed. Hard. His current price reflects it. I’d advise DFS Army members to buy the dip. It costs you practically nothing. He’s currently being drafted in the 14th round as the 22nd QB off the board on average.
I think people sleep on Jones’ rushing ability because he looks too much like his lead-footed predecessor, Eli Manning. The reality is that Jones can move and the Giants regularly call designed runs for him. Even in a very disappointing 2020 fantasy football season in which he missed two starts, Jones ran for at least 45 yards five times. He also had three more starts where he got to at least 20 yards. In 8 of 14 starts he provide a bit of a rushing floor.
The problem was his passing numbers sucked last season. The Giants committed 72 million dollars in the off-season to Kenny Golladay, and a first round pick (perhaps foolishly) to Kadaris Toney. With Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, and a returning Saquon Barkley, Jones will have no lack talented receiving options.
At his currently price, I believe Danny Dimes is a no risk, potentially high reward pick for those who choose to wait on quarterback.
Recent history show an under-drafted QB will breakout and provide excellent value. Recent history shows DFS Army does well at identifying that player. This is my first take at cracking the code. Stay tuned to the Bold Calls Podcast for more quarterback hot takes as the fantasy season approaches.
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