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NBA DFS Slate Breakdown Strategy, Picks, and Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Mar. 24th, 2021

Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/24:

Mar 5, 2019; Chestnut Hill, MA, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Coby White (2) drives against Boston College Eagles guard Jordan Chatman (25) during the second half at Conte Forum. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

I want to give a quick shoutout to VIP Member “TheSoprano12” on their $100,000 win earlier this season!! Better go buy a Boban jersey after that one!

Detroit Pistons @ Indiana Pacers

Vegas Total: NA

Vegas Spread: NA

We’ll kick this slate off with the Pacers, Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner come into this game as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding them and who is impacted whether they’re in or out. If he plays, he’s a nice option at this price tag and scored 37.25 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. Caris LeVert seems to have settled into his role with his new team, he’s sporting a 23.7% usage rate to go along with 0.94 fantasy points per minute which is serviceable at this price tag. He would see a boost if Brogdon were to miss. Lastly, Domantas Sabonis has been pretty boom or bust over the last week. I do like this matchup for him however, he scored 58.5 fantasy points in this one earlier this season and is a nice price tag on DraftKings. From the Pistons, Jerami Grant has seen his consistency fall a bit as of late, he just feels overpriced right now when you take into account his median production over the past few weeks and it’s not exactly a great matchup. Mason Plumlee has at least 29 DraftKings points in five straight, that being said, he’s not getting those mid-30’s minutes we saw about a month ago, but his price bakes that in. Delon Wright had a down night last time out in just 26 minutes against the Bulls, I don’t love the spot for him but he should be pretty unowned if you’re looking for a tournament leverage piece. Then we can round this team out with GPP guys like Josh Jackson and Saddiq Bey as filler pieces, both are coming off pretty bad games last time out.

5-star play: None

4-star play: Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, Mason Plumlee, Delon Wright

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Caris LeVert, Myles Turner, Jerami Grant, Josh Jackson, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart

Denver Nuggets @ Toronto Raptors

Vegas Total: 224.0

Vegas Spread: Den -1.0

Starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic put up another big game last night against the Pelicans. He’s playing heavy minutes and has at least 64 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. He’s an elite raw option as usual. Jamal Murray has found a bit of consistency as of late which has gotten me on him a little more, we know the upside is still there as well if you’re looking to go here for tournaments. Michael Porter Jr. has looked great since the all-star break and he too has found some consistency, the Raptors are sneaky bad against opposing power forwards which plays well into his skill set. Will Barton is fairly priced as a tournament option as well, he’s been in good form as of late. From the Raptors, Kyle Lowry just feels a touch too expensive for me. He’s playing massive minutes which is obviously what you want but has been held under 40 DraftKings points in three straight games and that’s not going to cut it at this price tag. For $200 less on DraftKings, you can go to Fred VanVleet who has at least 42 DraftKings points in three straight games if you’re looking to get exposure to this backcourt, it would be through VanVleet. This is a tough matchup for Pascal Siakam against a good interior defense but he’s going to play big minutes and is in relatively good form other than his stinker against the Cavs. Norman Powell is going to play a lot of minutes but he’s still priced for VanVleet and Siakam to be out, so he’s priced out for me here. Then you can round this team out with GPP options like Chris Boucher and OG Anunoby as filler pieces.

5-star play: Nikola Jokic

4-star play: Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam

Deeper Value: Paul Millsap

GPP Sleeper: Will Barton, Chris Boucher, OG Anunoby

Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks

Vegas Total: NA

Vegas Spread: NA

Starting with the Celtics, Jayson Tatum will return for this game, and looks like a pretty solid option at this price tag. He scored 49.75 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. Jaylen Brown also performed well here going for 52.75 fantasy points, they both have a skill set that can succeed against a Bucks team that is willing to let you shoot open jumpers. Brown is in excellent form as well and has at least 45 DraftKings points in five straight. Kemba Walker is a fine option, he has at least 30 DraftKings points in four straight but that doesn’t really get me all that excited to play him at this price point. Tristan Thompson will be out again here which means Robert Williams should continue to see good minutes, he is averaging 1.33 fantasy points per minute with Thompson off the court for the Celtics this season. The risky part with him will be the minutes though, very similar to Chris Boucher from the Raptors in that sense. Lastly, Marcus Smart has gotten his minutes back and has looked good as of late, he’ll be over $6k shortly, so play him while you can if you’re looking for a guard in this range. From the Bucks, we will need some news here before we can really dig into this team. Giannis Antetokounmpo comes into this one as questionable, so once we get that news head on over to our VIP Coaching Forums for a rundown on this team… the usage rates and plays will be massively different whether he’s in or out.

***Leaving the Bucks off the below while we wait on Giannis news***

5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown

4-star play: Marcus Smart, Robert Williams

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Kemba Walker, Daniel Theis, Robert Williams

Charlotte Hornets @ Houston Rockets

Vegas Total: 224.5

Vegas Spread: Cha -2.5

Starting with the Hornets, we saw Devonte’ Graham move back into the starting lineup for the Hornets last game with LaMelo Ball done for the season. He played 29 minutes and was pretty average with 21.25 DraftKings points. He gets another nice matchup in this one against an ailing Rockets team and makes sense even at an elevated price tag. Gordon Hayward also comes in with a pretty big price hike, I’m fine with him here due to the matchup and minutes he should see but I’m not thrilled about it. PJ Washington is another guy that saw a price increase, he’s been pretty volatile as of late, but if Cody Zeller misses again I don’t mind him for GPPs. The Rockets will have no problem playing small ball so he could see a decent amount of run at the five if that’s the case. Lastly, Terry Rozier looked good last game as well and played 39 minutes, he’s pretty much locked into 35+ minutes in competitive games with Ball now out. From the Rockets, first of all, a big ole screw you to the coach who said John Wall was on a minutes restriction last game… HE PLAYED 36 MINUTES on his way to a triple-double and shot 30 field goals. I made a large pivot off of him when that news came out… so what did we learn here? NBA coaches and their “coach speak” are about as useful as Twitter to my grandma. Rant over, John Wall should see heavy minutes again here but Victor Oladipo is expected back with Kevin Porter Jr. questionable as well. Christian Wood did seem like he had a minutes restriction as he saw just 28 minutes, I would expect he’s back up in the high 30’s again in this one, and makes for a great option. Other than these three guys I don’t have a whole lot of interest in this team, I would need to know Kevin Porter Jr. isn’t on a minutes restriction (I guess maybe it doesn’t matter after what I just ranted about) for me to want to play him, even then, with Wood, Oladipo, and Wall back he may struggle to find usage. I suppose you can make a case for Jae’sean Tate but that’s about as deep as I’ll go.

5-star play: Christian Wood

4-star play: Devonte’ Graham, Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier, PJ Washington, John Wall, Victor Oladipo

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: PJ Washington, Victor Oladipo, Jae’sean Tate

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Phoenix Suns @ Orlando Magic

Vegas Total: NA

Vegas Spread: NA

Starting with the Suns, Devin Booker scored 41.5 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. I have trouble liking a ton from this Suns team when they’re fully healthy but you can make a case for him in GPPs. The same can be said for Chris Paul, the Magic have been terrible against opposing point guards this season which puts him in play as well. I can’t remember the last time I saw DeAndre Ayton under $6k, but here he is. He has at least 40 DraftKings points in two straight games as well, it’s hard not to like him at this price tag. Mikal Bridges scored 33.25 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and makes sense as a mid-range option. The rest of this team is pretty much deep GPP flyers if you want to get wacky. From the Magic, Nikola Vucevic will start to lose some usage and production as this team begins to get healthy but I still think he can get it done here, Ayton is not a good defender. It sounds like the Magic are shopping Aaron Gordon pretty aggressively so keep an eye on his status going into this one, if he plays he’s a solid GPP option. Evan Fournier continues to play well too, Terrence Ross will miss this one which secures his minutes and makes him more playable. Lastly, we saw Al-Farouq Aminu go bananas last night, I wouldn’t bank on that sort of production again but he makes sense as a value option in a pinch.

5-star play: DeAndre Ayton

4-star play: Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier

Deeper Value: Al-Farouq Aminu

GPP Sleeper: Mikal Bridges, Aaron Gordon

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls

Vegas Total: 219.5

Vegas Spread: Chi -6.0

Starting with the Cavs, Jarrett Allen has been pretty bad relative to his price tag as of late. The minutes are still there which is intriguing but the production just hasn’t been there. I do like him in this spot, but I wish he was cheaper. Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are going to continue to play heavy minutes and make sense here, particularly in tournaments given the size of the slate we can be picky for cash games. Larry Nance Jr. has had a pretty below average last three games since dropping 44 fantasy points on the Celtics. The minutes should still be there on him in a pretty good matchup, however. From the Bulls, I would expect them to leave Tomas Satoransky in the starting lineup as he’s producing really nicely, he’s finally above $4k on DraftKings but I still think he works in a pinch as a value option due to his performance. Zach LaVine bounced back nicely last game in a tough matchup, I like him against these smaller guards that the Cavs will throw at him here. Coby White is a guy I don’t ever get much of, he’s a really volatile tournament option at very best, those game logs are UGLAYYY. Thad Young continues to look great but I just have a tough time ever landing on him at this price, it’s always right where it should be. Lastly, Lauri Markkanen is fine for GPPs as well, he hasn’t been in the best form over his past couple of games but this is a nice matchup.

5-star play: Zach LaVine

4-star play: Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Larry Nance Jr.

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Jarrett Allen, Tomas Satoransky, Lauri Markkanen, Coby White, Thad Young

Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Vegas Total: NA

Vegas Spread: NA

Starting with the Grizzlies, we finally got that bounce-back game from Ja Morant that we’ve been waiting for. He’s averaging 43.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Thunder this season and seems like a solid option again in this one. Jonas Valanciunas has at least 44 DraftKings points in two straight and is averaging over 40 fantasy points per game in this matchup as well this season, we know he brings a massive ceiling to the table as well. Dillon Brooks had a huge game last time out going for 46.75 DraftKings points, I don’t know that I’ll be chasing that production here but he’s a fine tournament option. I always have a tough time playing Kyle Anderson but if he’s going to keep playing 30+ minutes he’s priced nicely. From the Thunder, we kind of know what to expect from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander by now. He’s got a ton of raw talent but he’s going to be a volatile fantasy producer which makes me like him more for tournaments than cash games. Al Horford is another name to monitor as we approach that Thursday trade deadline, I would assume he’s doesn’t play many more games for the Thunder, but for now, he’s a fine play, nothing that I really love though. We can jump off the Moses Brown train with Horford expected back here as well especially at this price tag. Isaiah Roby is averaging 26.3 DraftKings points in two games against the Grizzlies this season and is a fine play as well, but with Horford back I don’t love it on a massive slate. Lastly, Lu Dort is always in play for GPPs due to his upside, but that floor game from him is a scary reality.

5-star play: None

4-star play: Ja Morant, Jonas Valanciunas, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson, Al Horford, Lu Dort, Isaiah Roby

Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Vegas Total: 229

Vegas Spread: Dal -7.0

Starting with the Mavs, it’s mostly just Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis that I’ll have an interest in. Kristaps is a guy I love in this spot. The Wolves are near the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing big men and he dropped 61.75 DraftKings points on them once already this season. The price is high but it should keep people off him if you want to go here in tournaments. Doncic has at least 60 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and makes for an elite raw option here as well. Then you can round this game out with guys like Josh Richardson and Tim Hardaway Jr. as GPP options. From the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns is going to play heavy minutes regardless of the score which you won’t see from many stars which makes me like him more than I generally should. The price has come up on him to $10k on DraftKings but it’s warranted as he’s gone over 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four and gets a good matchup here. Anthony Edwards is going to continue to chuck from the field as Beasley and Russell are still out, he makes for a nice GPP option as his price continues to climb. Outside of those two, it’s really just Ricky Rubio that I would have interest in for tournaments but that about does it from this game.

5-star play: Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, Karl-Anthony Towns

4-star play: Anthony Edwards, Ricky Rubio

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Josh Richardson, Tim Hardaway Jr.

Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs

Vegas Total: 220.0

Vegas Spread: Lac -6.0

Starting with the Clippers, Serge Ibaka is expected to be out a few more games here so I’ll go right back to Ivica Zubac who should continue to draw the start at the five. He has at least 30 DraftKings points in three of his last four games with Ibaka out. Kawhi Leonard gets a revenge game against his old squad and scored 56.75 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. Paul George had a bit of a dud last time out and a guy that I just can’t seem to get right. The price tag and matchup are nice on him if you want to get some exposure, however. The rest of this team is really just GPP flyers with guys like Lou Williams and Marcus Morris. From the Spurs, this is a tough matchup for DeMar DeRozan but the Clippers aren’t playing the defense that everyone is expecting they do so I don’t hate a GPP shot on him. The same can be said for Dejounte Murray who scored 38.75 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and brings some nice upside to the table. Jakob Poeltl is a fine play at this price but I just don’t see myself getting to him on a slate this big. Lastly, Keldon Johnson and Derrick White are solid last pieces if you land in their price ranges.

5-star play: Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac

4-star play: Paul George, DeMar DeRozan, Dejounte Murray

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Lou Williams, Marcus Morris, Jakob Poeltl, Keldon Johnson, Derrick White

Brooklyn Nets @ Utah Jazz

Vegas Total: NA

Vegas Spread: NA

Starting with the Nets, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant will be out for this game so we can go right back to James Harden here. He dropped 62.75 DraftKings points in last night’s game without them, and with these two off the court this season Harden has a 35.5% usage rate and 1.67 fantasy points per minute. Bruce Brown was pretty heavy chalk last night but still only saw 22 minutes which is odd considering Irving and Shamet are both out. With the price coming up on him in a bad matchup, I don’t think he’s a must. Nic Claxton now has at least 26 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and is a legit NBA big man. However, good luck to him against Rudy Gobert and company, I’ll wait for a better spot to attack him. Then Joe Harris and DeAndre Jordan are always solid GPP options if you’re looking to get more exposure here. From the Jazz, they’re very similar to the Suns in that I don’t get to them much when they’re at full strength. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert highlight the team on the top end, but I just think we’ll have better plays in their price range as the day goes on. Then you get to the mid-range of GPP guys in Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Joe Ingles. This team spreads the ball out really well so I just don’t have a need to prioritize any of these guys tonight.

5-star play: James Harden

4-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert

Deeper Value: Nic Claxton

GPP Sleeper: Bruce Brown, Joe Harris, DeAndre Jordan, Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles

Atlanta Hawks @ Sacramento Kings

Vegas Total: 236.5

Vegas Spread: Atl -3.5

Then we round the slate off with the late-night hammer that has the largest implied total on the slate. Starting with the Hawks, DeAndre Hunter returned last game and was able to play 20 minutes, I’ll wait until he gets his full minutes back as they’re easing him back in here. It’s tough not to like Trae Young here, he’s under $9k on DraftKings and scored 45.25 DraftKings points in this spot earlier in the season. The Kings are one of the worst defenses in the league and play pretty fast which sets up well for Young. John Collins has found some consistency as of late going for at least 34 DraftKings points in five straight games. Clint Capela has seen his price fall a good amount, he scored 48 DraftKings points in this spot earlier in the season and is a good play again here tonight. Lastly, Danilo Gallinari comes into this one as questionable, if he’s out it would open up more minutes for the wings in guys like Kevin Huerter and Bogdan Bogdanovic. From the Kings, De’Aaron Fox scored 51.25 DraftKings points in this spot earlier on in the season, but why not just take the savings on Young on the other side if you’re not going to stack the two? Richaun Holmes has been really consistent as of late and is locked into big minutes with Marvin Bagley now out. He scored 38.5 DraftKings points in this spot earlier on in the season. Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes are going to continue to see huge minutes and make for solid options in a game with a big implied total as well. Then finally, Tyrese Haliburton looked like his old self last game going for 37.75 DraftKings points and is under $6k again here, I love the spot for him.

5-star play: Trae Young, De’Aaron Fox

4-star play: John Collins, Clint Capela, Richaun Holmes, Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, Tyrese Haliburton

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Kevin Huerter, Bogdan Bogdanovic

NBA Lock of the Day: DeAndre Ayton (DK – $5.8k; FD – $6.2k)

This is more of a DraftKings play because you can play two centers and the opportunity cost isn’t as high on him, but the price tag has fallen too low on Ayton. He has at least 40 DraftKings points in two straight games and gets a matchup with a pretty weak Magic defense here. Keep an eye on our Cheat Sheets/Coaches Notes as the day goes on, but I would assume he makes my core unless something else comes up. These notes include a Core, player ranks, and tiers notes, so come check them out! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 5x tonight I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

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