What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest plays at each position and see if anybody is worth the ownership you are paying for. Chalk whether you play it or not always needs to be looked at as it is something that always dictates what the cash line will be and build types for your lineups. We will look at factors such as the matchup, volume, pivots, and salary to see if someone is worthy of a smash or pass. Let’s get into it.

 

SPEAKING OF LOW OWNERSHIP:

Our Research Station has full ownership projections plus so much more to help you up your game. Use PROMO CODE: ‘THEORY’ FOR 20% OFF YOUR MEMBERSHIP FOR LIFE!

 

QBs:

Lamar Jackson ($8200): Lamar has not thrown over 20 passing attempts in 3 weeks now, which is fine and dandy as long as he is getting his rushing yards. My issue is the fact that if he only compiles 50 rushing yards and no rushing touchdowns and throws for let us say, 2 touchdowns, he has a real shot of not scoring over 20 points. Jackson still has the ceiling of a true #1 QB overall but it has been a lot harder for him to hit it. The Ravens rush the ball a lot in the red zone and I do not see Jacksonville making much of a game out of this meaning Lamar can just put it on autopilot after they get a 2 possession lead which really hurts his ability to give you a top 5% performance. PASS

Kyler Murray ($8000): It has been almost over 4 weeks now since Kyler’s last 3x performance and he is now priced accordingly to that. I would be all over this play if he was projecting for low ownership, but since he is going to be chalk I am not really looking to roster a QB with a banged-up shoulder that has not had a great fantasy performance in over a month now. As for his rushing upside, in his first 9 starts this year he had only one game with 5 or fewer rushing attempts, in his last 4 starts, 3 of them fall into that category. PASS

Patrick Mahomes ($8900): Another week of Mahomes chalk another week I must mention the fact that a stack with his two best weapons takes up 44% of your total salary. In cash games, if you want exposure I do not mind just running with naked Mahomes to make sure you are getting a piece of every pie. In GPPs however, it just seems improbable that you are; 1a. Going to pick the right cheap players to go along with the onslaught stack or 1b. Going to pick the optimal mini stack. I would rather just bank on the Chiefs scoring 30 or fewer points which if that happens you shouldn’t have had to play them in GPPs. CASH SMASH, GPP PASS

RBs:

Leonard Fournette ($5500): This man has not received high value touches all year for a reason because he stinks. While I think a lot of people are looking at this like he is a lock for 20+ touches, that is not how I am viewing it. Also, Atlanta has a very good run defense so he is going to have to earn his yards here. I would much rather play JK Dobbins who is only $400 more, in a better matchup, is projecting for 20% less ownership, and in all honesty, is just a way better football player. PASS

Derrick Henry ($10200): The nice thing about Henry chalk this week is most people are going to be using Fournette to help them get there, so if you do not you already have a decent leg up on the field. Of course, I think Henry is an amazing play this week, he averages over 5 YPC in the month of December and has honestly the best matchup on the slate. When the game script goes his way he is almost a lock for over 20 points and there seems like no outcome to me where Henry gets scripted out of the game this week. SMASH

Cam Akers ($6700): The Jets are a very stout run defending team and the Rams should not have to do much to keep a lead here, which makes me think we are not getting the bell cow Akers this week but more of the RBBC that we saw for a majority of the season. With Swift and Mostert both good plays around him projecting for way less ownership, I would rather just roll with them, especially because there are really no stacks you are making with Akers other than Rams D and him. PASS

WRs:

Allen Robinson ($7300): The Vikings have been one of the worst pass defenses in the league this year and I do not expect this week to be any different. Robinson gets the volume of an 8k WR but doesn’t get there because his team’s offensive output is so low. At $7300 he is at the very worst worth putting into your cash LU. There are plenty of options on how to stack attack the CHI vs MIN game so I am also a fan in GPPs as well. SMASH

Brandon Aiyuk ($6900): How could you not be a fan of Aiyuk this week, over the last 5 weeks he is 3rd in WOPR (team air yard share + team target share) and faces the Cowboys awful secondary. The stacking options in the games are not as limited as one might think either with Mostert and Amari Cooper being in play as well. He is also worth a look in cash as well but if it came down to it I am loading McLaurin at the same price. SMASH 

Tyreek Hill ($9300): Having scored over 20 FD points in 5 of the last 6 weeks, it seems like he has the best floor in the league along with Devante Adams and that is hard to argue against. At $9300 and the only option I like from the Saints is Kamara, it is hard for me to get excited about smashing this game. It is not that I do not like him, it is that I am hoping he does not hit a ceiling game and I get a leg up on the field because of it.

TEs:

Travis Kelce ($8500): I refuse to pay this type of money for a TE, even one who might lead the league in receiving yards. If he does not have a top tier game at the best position to pay down at, your line up is basically toast, and even if he does hit and you do not have him your build will be very different from someone who did play him so it is not like you’re drawing dead or anything. PASS

Mark Andrews ($6800): At least Kelce has a known ceiling, Andrews has scored over 20 FD points just one time this year. A good rule to ask yourself when rostering someone is “Can he hit 3x?” and based on this season, the answer is no. PASS

Cole Kmet ($5100): A $5000 TE who is averaging 5 targets a game over the last 4 weeks and is facing a terrible pass defense with their best linebacker out, yes please. I would just consider locking him into my cash LU. SMASH 

 

 

Defenses are not shown on here as the field is pretty sharp with defense ownership so trying to pick against them is just something I do not deem to be necessary. Remember everyone, if all the good plays just hit every week, we would all have money printing machines, but I do not know about you guys but I do not have a money machine and I see chalk bust on a slate to slate basis like clockwork. Do not feel like you have to play anybody because you don’t, football is a volatile game and projections are not far enough along yet to really nail that down. It is your boy @LowOwnedWR signing off, if you have any questions feel free to @ me on Twitter.

 

 

 

                                  Unlock Every Tool, Every Coach for Every Sport NOW!!