Welcome to the inaugural postseason of this article series. In this article series, I am going to break down each playoff game on the slate based purely on pitch profile match-ups. The goal of this series is to locate the gems for our smaller slate/single-game slate contests that can provide an edge and lead us to some GPP takedowns! My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started. Let’s take a look at the colors that you will see below. When you see numbers highlighted in red, they are numbers that benefit the pitcher. Numbers highlighted in blue are ones that benefit the hitter, while the ones that are left white are in a middling range that might give a very slight edge to the hitters.
Chicago White Sox @ Oakland Athletics
This elimination game has SP announcements pending. I do believe we will see Dane Dunning against either Mike Fiers or Sean Manaea. I will update this as soon as we have an idea of who the actually projected starters are, along with initial Vegas thoughts.
We know that the White Sox are a very dangerous offense but we also know that Fiers is a flyball pitcher and that can lead to some lazy outs. We see some blue above so there are spots that are intriguing. Encarnacion profiles really well but he’s been pretty bad against Fiers in his career. Moncada has had success and looks to be a solid play while Anderson has hit him well but doesn’t profile greatly. Abreu and Robert could be the guys that have some success for our GPP build against Fiers.
From the looks of the chart above, Dunning is going to struggle with the LHBs of the A’s. Olson has massive power and lines up really well while Lamb, La Stella, and even Grossman have a solid path to a nice game. Dunning’s K numbers dropped towards the end of the season while his BB numbers went up. I would not be shocked to see a double-dong game out of Olson here.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
We get to see a battle of Brandon Woodruff against Clayton Kershaw on Thursday night, in an elimination game for the Brewers. I will update here with Vegas information as soon as I get the accurate numbers
We see a lot of red above, but that was to be expected. Kershaw is one of the All-Time greats and while the Brewers have some spots that can do damage, he does a great job of avoiding blow-ups. Some people will argue that he struggles during the postseason and maybe that is true. The thing about that is this postseason isn’t after a full 162 game season so he should be fresher. Yelich has hit him EXTREMELY well and has strong numbers against his profile. I am not sure I can recommend any other Brewer bats. I think Garcia, Gyorko, and Braun (if he is healthy enough to return) have a path to some success. No Braun for the Brewers as he is replaced by Taylor and Vogelbach is replaced by Healy.
So we know that Woodruff is a near-elite level pitcher. He certainly can struggle at times and give up an HR but he gets outs and can rack up strikeouts. There is a LOT of blues above but that is to be expected given how good the Dodgers are. Seager, who HR’d on Wednesday night, Muncy, Will Smith, Bellinger, and Joc Pederson are guys that I want to have exposure to. I love the way that Munch, Smith, and Pederson profile. I would expect to see Smith in the lineup at the DH spot but would understand the Dodgers holding him out of the lineup just in case Barnes were to get hurt.
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves
Luis Castillo gets the task of following Bauer’s masterful performance on Wednesday for the Reds. He faces Ian Anderson, who is making his first career postseason start (so is Castillo but at least he’s not a rookie). Thursday’s game has the same total as Wednesday’s did, 7.5, and we see the Braves as a slightly larger favorite (-138).
Ian Anderson has flashed his impressive upside as a rookie this summer. He gets a decent match-up here but you do see some plus spots for the Reds bats. Anderson’s worst pitch has been his curveball, especially against RHBs. If he struggles with it here, I can see Suarez and Castellanos being the ones that do the damage. If Aquino finds himself in the lineup, then I would be interested in his upside for GPPs based on the profile match-up.
Castillo actually lines up slightly better than Bauer did as far as the profile goes. I think that Bauer is the better overall pitcher but that’s not taking anything away from Castillo’s skills. If he tries to rely on his non-FB offerings against Acuna, he is in trouble. Freeman is going to almost always jump off the page against an RHPs profile and make a great play. After those two guys, it’s just a couple of so-so GPP options in Ozuna and d’Arnaud.
Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs
I am up late and we still haven’t seen an official line get posted here so that tells me we have the potential for impactful winds at Wrigley. I love this match-up in terms of pitching so unless the wind is blowing out, I just don’t see a reason to target many bats here. Sanchez taking on Darvish is going to be excellent and we could see them combine for 15+ Ks.
Darvish is an elite SP, especially at home. The Marlins most likely lost Marte for the season but he is being listed as day-to-day with a broken pinky. If we are looking at some Marlins bats who have one-off type abilities, I think that Dickerson is very intriguing. He HRd on Wednesday and has a solid history against Darvish. His profile matches up rather well, too. Some people might go to Aguilar and I can see a route for him but I might go with Cooper over him in the same position.
Sanchez has looked every bit of the top prospect he had been for years. He has some nasty stuff that shows reversed splits so far at the MLB level. When we look at the above, we see a decent amount of blue but I think that can be deceiving. The one pitch to LHBs that could get Sanchez in trouble is his sinker. He has allowed a wOBA of .434 to LHBs with his sinker this season. Knowing that I think Schwarber and Happ come into play as GPP options. When it comes to RHBs, Sanchez has had some issues with his FB-slider combination. Taking that into consideration we really have just Contreras as a solid option from the right side.
St Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres
The Padres turn to Zach Davies with their season on the line, while the Cardinals will trust Adam Wainwright to get them the sweep. This game has a total sitting at 8.5 runs with the Padres as -155 favorites.
We absolutely nailed the Cardinals against Paddack on Wednesday. When taking a look at this spot against Davies, I do not see the same paths to success as we were able to take advantage of yesterday. Carpenter has an elite history against Davies and has a great profile against the non-change up pitches by Davies. Goldschmidt is definitely in play again after he hit an HR on Wednesday. Dylan Carlson has really impressed in his return to the MLB level and finds himself hitting 4th. He’s the wild card in this spot.
Wainwright is somebody that I have a TON of respect for. He came up as a hard thrower and racked up a ton of success. He then kind of hit a wall and lost some of his stuff but instead of hanging it up, he learned how to pitch again and he looks good out there. In my first run at the data on Wednesday night had me thinking he was in line for a big game but those blue numbers at the bottom plus the guys at the top could make it a rough night. Mitch Moreland might end up being one of my favorite GPP plays based purely on the profile. Jason Castro, Trent Grisham, Eric Hosmer, and even Tatis Jr look like they could do some damage.
There you have it ladies and gentlemen, the debut of the Pitch Profile Breakdown article! If you have any questions make sure you tag me in the chat. We can discuss thoughts on individual match-ups! As you can see, there are paths to success for each team playing today!