Welcome! The goal of this article is to help you make informed DFS pitching decisions based on matchups, history, statistics and projections.
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ICYMI
This was something we spoke about yesterday but I didn’t want anyone to miss it. In our “Intro to the KBO” write up from last week, we mentioned that the KBO went though a baseball de-juicing process last season. Offensive numbers in 2019 were still higher on average than in the MLB but saw a significant downtick when compared with previous years. However, that pendulum now seems to be swinging back further into offensive bliss again this season.
An argument can be made that de-juiced baseballs in the KBO are no longer a thing (or at least less of a thing) in 2020. Take a look at these numbers:
2019 | 2020 KBO League Offense Comparison
Batting Average: .267 | .272
ERA: 4.18 | 5.11
Home Runs: – 1.41/game | 2.26/game
The sample size is only 8 days for 2020 but things have clearly been different so far. You can use that trend to your advantage in daily fantasy baseball by rostering more power hitters. To this point, home runs have been king in KBO DFS.
Pitchers and Picks
Pitchers are sorted by DraftKings price. Each pitcher breakdown will include name, team, price (DK | FD respectively), matchup (opposing offense 2020 stats/league rank), notes and format. My top plays/values will be highlighted.
Lee Young-ha
Team: DOO v LOT
Price: $9,300 | $24
Matchup: .307 Batting Average (2nd) | .855 OPS (3rd) | 26 SO (1st) | 16 BB (9th)
Notes: Lee was sharp in his 2020 debut – 6.1IP/1ER/5H/3K/2BB. That stat line looks similar to many from 2019 where he piled up 17 wins and a solid 3.64 ERA in 163.1 innings. As for 2020, FanGraph’s ZiPS projection has Lee finishing in the top 15 overall with a 3.92 ERA. He would normally be viewed as a safe option but tonight he is up against one of the better offenses in the league. With his low strikeout percentages, Lee makes for a decent but expensive tournament play.
Format: GPP
Choi Won-tae
Team: KIW v SAM
Price: $8,900 | $25
Matchup: .198 Batting Average (10th) | .633 OPS (10th) | 57 SO (10th) | 29 BB (1st)
Notes: Choi went 5 innings in his first start and gave up 2 runs on 9 hits while striking out 4 and walking 2. His 2019 ERA of 3.38 and 1.28 WHIP were some of the top marks in the league and he does get a juicy matchup against a struggling Samsung offense. ZiPS projects him to finish 5th in league ERA in 2020. Clearly, Choi has a great chance of racking up innings, picking up several strikeouts and getting the win.
Format: ALL
Mike Wright
Team: NCD v KTW
Price: $8,500 | $27
Matchup: .305 Batting Average (3rd) | .816 OPS (5th) | 41 SO (3rd) | 17 BB (8th)
Notes: The KBO debut for Mike Wright had a little bit of everything – 5IP/2R/4H/7K/1BB. He also hit one batter and gave up 2 home runs. This line represents most of his MLB career well. His strikeout upside has been high but the home runs have been a problem. The opponent offense hits the ball out of the park at an average rate but they strike out 3rd fewest in the league. This matchup will be very interesting. Wright is a risky tournament play with upside tonight – especially on DraftKings. He is the most expensive pitcher tonight on FanDuel.
Format: GPP
William Cuevas
Team: KTW v NCD
Price: $8,100 | $21
Matchup: .284 Batting Average (5th) | .878 OPS (2nd) | 43 SO (5th) | 24 BB (4th)
Notes: William Cuevas lasted 5 innings but gave up 6 runs (all earned) on 6 hits while striking out 5. His 2019 numbers suggest this could have been more of an outlier start because last year he finished with an ERA of 3.62 over 184 innings pitched. Despite the rough first outing, ZiPS is projecting Cuevas to finish 14th overall in 2020 ERA (3.94) and 11th in K/9 (7.3). Things won’t come easy tonight, however, because he matches up against the potent NC offense. The upside is there and Cuevas is worth a look in tournaments (especially on FD because of price) but roster with caution because of the risk. Personally, I’d find the extra $400 on DK to play Wright.
Format: GPP (FD)
Ricardo Pinto
Team: SK v LG
Price: $7,900 | $24
Matchup: .289 Batting Average (4th) | .834 OPS (4th) | 41 SO (3rd) | 20 BB (5th)
Notes: Pinto opened his 2020 season and KBO career on a sparkling note – 6.2IP/3H/1R/3K/3BB. He isn’t a power pitcher but can strike batters out at a decent clip. Pitching to contact does lead to more hits against in his case and control can be a problem at times. Pinto isn’t the worst option tonight but the matchup doesn’t do anything to help his case.
Format: GPP (Underweight)
Lee Min-woo
Team: KIA v HAN
Price: $7,300 | $22
Matchup: .268 Batting Average (6th) | .680 OPS (9th) | 43 SO (6th) | 17 BB (8th)
Notes: Lee gets to face a struggling Hanwha offense tonight in his second start of the season and looks to improve upon a lackluster performance from last week – 5.2IP/4R/5H/4K/3BB. He spent most of 2019 as a reliever but started his last 5 appearances of the season. In those starts he gave up 21 runs in 31+ innings of work and struck out 22 batters. It remains to be seen what sort of success Lee can have as a starter but if there was a night to build confidence, it is tonight against Hanwha. He is a mid-priced tournament option for tonight but not someone I will be jamming into my lineups
Format: GPP
Lim Chan-gyu
Team: LG v SK
Price: $7,200 | $20
Matchup: .250 Batting Average (9th) | .712 OPS (8th) | 46 SO (8th) | 13 BB (10th)
Notes: Lim will make his 2020 debut tonight (rainout last week). He has rotated between reliever and starter for most of his 7 year career but will begin 2020 in the rotation. On one hand, Lim has shown brilliant upside with above-average K/9 and a low batting average against. On the other hand he’s had control issues and a bloated ERA/WHIP because of it. The matchup adds intrigue and reason to roster Lim in tournaments, however. The Wyverns strikeout a lot, rarely walk and don’t hit for much power. There is risk in playing him tonight but Lim makes for my favorite tournament option in this price range (he is actually the cheapest pitcher on FanDuel tonight).
Format: GPP
David Buchanan
Team: SAM v KIW
Price: $7,000 | $22
Matchup: .252 Batting Average (8th) | .757 OPS (6th) | 46 SO (7th) | 25 BB (3rd)
Notes: Buchanan didn’t do much to silence his critics during his first KBO start – 6IP/5R/6H/2K/1BB. To make matters worse, that stat line is fairly indicative of what his career has looked like since joining the Phillies organization in 2010. The strikeout upside is low, he plays on one of the worst teams in the KBO and isn’t nearly as cheap as he should be to warrant roster consideration.
Format: FADE
Seo Jun-won
Team: LOT v DOO
Price: $6,800 | $22
Matchup: .341 Batting Average (1st) | .882 OPS (1st) | 26 SO (1st) | 16 BB (9th)
Notes: Seo opened 2020 on a positive note – 6IP/0ER/5H/2K/1BB. Unfortunately for him, he has to face the top statistical offense in the KBO (Doosan). His .227 BABIP tells us that regression is coming and that is further exaggerated by his inability to retire hitters via the strikeout. If you want to take a chance, his ownership will be low… But even in the unlikely scenario of a quality start, his fantasy output still wouldn’t justify his price.
Format: FADE
Jang Shi-hwan
Team: HAN v KIA
Price: $6,500 | $23
Matchup: .263 Batting Average (7th) | .755 OPS (7th) | 51 SO (9th) | 27 BB (2nd)
Notes: If you are in desperate need of saving salary on DraftKings, Jang could be your guy. He showed promise in first start of 2020 – 6IP/2R/9H/6K/1BB. He faced a struggling Hanwha offense last week and gets another solid matchup tomorrow against KIA. His strikeout upside is high but beware of control issues. It will be interesting to see how those two things in particular play out tonight. I like him as a cheap GPP option on DK.
Format: GPP (DK)
Glossary
OPS (On-base plus Slugging)
SO (Strikeout)
K/9 (Strikeouts per 9 innings)
BB (Walk)
ERA (Earned Run Average)
WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched)
IP (Inning Pitched)
ER (Earned Run)
R (Run)
DK (DraftKings)
FD (FanDuel)
KBO (Korean Baseball Organization)
LHP (Left Handed Pitcher)
BABIP (Batting Average Balls in Play)