Notes for Tonight’s 5/2 5am ET LPL/CBLOL Slate
This slate starts Friday night / early morning and includes 2 of the CBLOL playoff games. This will last until Sunday Morning so keep that in mind. These series are both Best of 5.
LPL
TES (+115) vs JDG (-160)
I have written and talked about this game enough times for you to get the idea in regards what I think about this match, but here is that info again in case you missed it.
I wrote most of my thoughts about this game on the cheat sheet from yesterday, but I will re-post that here.
JDG look like the most complete team in the LPL right now. They are a very well-balanced team that have all been super consistent all year and know their roles. Zoom is still undefeated since coming in, and while I do not think will remain after this series, his impact cannot be understated. Kanavi puts a lot of early game focus top lane and it has paid off big for JDG. TES defeated IG almost solely off of Karsa being much better than Leyan. JackeyLove honestly did not have a great series until the final game and Knight was the one holding it together until that final game. 369 put up a top tier performance against TheShy but that was mainly due to TheShy making many mistakes without a jungler to back him up. Kanavi will not get outjungled that hard in this game and I think JDG have a big advantage there. Karsa has been mediocre all season until that last series against an even weaker jungler. Yagao showed he can hang with Doinb, and Knight is in the same boat of top tier midlaners. TES still ahve some flaws to them that are overshadowed by the skill of Knight and JL, but they weren’t really brought up against IG. I think JDG are better as a team and this series can go 5 games, but I give the edge to JDG.
Lastly all I want to add is a bit of context from the FPX/IG third place game. FPX demolished IG 3-0 in a very one sided series besides Game 2. TheShy was still feeding and Ning was just as bad as Leyan if not worse. FPX with Khan looked very good and if they had him for the JDG series I believe it would have been much closer. The important thing to note is the fact that JDG were able to deliver a 3-0 smack down onto FPX who still managed to look incredibly good against IG. This scares me a bit with how good they could really be. I do think JDG are the best team in the LPL this split, but TES are still very mechanically gifted and can win games off of individual plays. Knight and JackeyLove are the prime targets that can take over the game which helps make TES a great GPP option.
Players to watch (TES): Knight (TES), JackeyLove (ADC), Karsa (JNG)
Players to watch (JDG): Zoom (TOP), Kanavi (JNG), Loken (ADC)
CBLOL
Before we get started on the individual matchups, some general context for the CBLOL. This league is extremely high action and there is a lot of fighting. Compared to the LPL, the CBLOL teams actually gets more kills on average than the LPL teams on this slate. This league is lower in general skill level but due to that there is more action. These 2 games are extremely valuable targets for DFS purposes.
VK (-220) vs KBM (+160)
Confirmed Starting Lineups
VK: Robo, Grell, Nosferus, Klaus, Professor
JBM: Parang, Wiz,. Tutsz, Dudstheboy, Ceos
All season long VK were the top team in the CBLOL. They had the most consistent gameplay out of all the teams in the league and average 19.9 kills per win in their victories. This is not the bloodiest by CBLOL standards, but it is still a very high total. They did lose the last 2 games of the regular season and this may cause some people to have lower opinions of them, but this should not be the case. VK used their substitute jungler in their last 2 games of the season and used picks they had never used before. They did not take these games seriously and as a result lost both of them. This should not be something to worry about in this series as the starting lineups were announced and their main jungler Grell is back in. This team is led by Grell as well as Nosferus and Klaus.
KBM have been the hottest team in the CBLOL in recent weeks. Coming into playoffs they have won 6 games in a row, including a wins against the top 2 teams (VK and FLA). Yes the top 2 were locked into playoff spots and weren’t going 100%, but winning 6 in a row is impressive regardless. They have started using DudsTheBoy as their main ADC, and it has paid off for them. He has been excellent on the Aphelios and has helped KBM rack up this large win streak. Parang is one of the best top laners in the CBLOL and his stats are incredible. He is so involved in everything and helps carry from the top lane, even on tanks. DudsTheBoy, Ceos, and Parang are the top targets on this team. Tutsz is a bit of weak point for them but overall this team is very solid.
The CBLOL is very volatile and any team can beat anyone on any given day. With how KBM have been playing I would not be surprised if they pulled off this victory. However, with their full roster intact and plenty of film on KBM trying their hardest in the last few weeks, I think VK have a slight edge. Both teams rack up a lot of kills in wins so this could get bloody. The overall season series between these two (including the last troll game that KBM won) is 2-1 in favour of KBM. KBM have shown they can beat VK at full strength, but I would not really take into account their last meeting.
Players to watch (VK): Grell (JNG), NosFerus (MID), Klaus (ADC)
Players to watch (KBM): DudsTheBoy (ADC), Parang (TOP), Ceos (SUP)
FLA (-345) vs FUR (+240)
Expected Starting Lineups
FLA: WooFe, Ranger, Goku, Absolut, JoJo
FUR: Tyrin, Minerva, Anyyy, Alternative, Damage
No starting lineups have been released for this game yet, but FLA haven’t used their sub support in a long time, and I expect them to roll out their normal 5. FUR have more subs and have used them more throughout the season, but I will also assume they start the 5 they have been using. No guarantees they don’t sub them out mid series though.
FLA have been a top 2 CBLOL team all season and hold a 2-1 season record against FUR. FLA started off the season really hot but cooled off a bit near the end of the season. They still locked in 2nd pretty early and had a few of their “for fun” games so their record is slightly tainted by that. This team is even more bloody than the last 2 from the first game, in wins FLA average 21.1 kills a game, which is a lot; especially given a solid sample size. This league is super high action and FLA is one of the reasons for that. Their star power lies in the hands of their jungler Ranger, Absolut and WooFe (another top laner that is very involved). Their support JoJo shared some time with their sub support throughout the season, but it looks pretty clear he is the choice going forward. He is solid as well.
FUR won their win or go home match against PNG to lock in their playoff spot and the game wasn’t particularly close. They had complete objective control and played their late game composition very well. It was not a bloody game due to the nature of the game being so serious, so maybe we can expect some of that here as well. Typically, when the stakes are the highest, games can slow down. That may happen in the first game as well, but based on the history of these two teams, it should be the bloodier match. FUR also average over 20 kills a win and they are led by jungler Minerva, ADC Alternative and MID Anyyy. These three are very skilled and make up the brunt of FUR’s win conditions.
I think FLA are the better team between two, but once again this is the Brazilian league where anyone can beat anyone. FUR has struggled against the top 2 teams all season, with only one win in 6 games against FLA and VK. I think FLA has a more balanced roster but still with star power in most lanes. I do believe FUR have the advantage in mid, but everywhere else is either even or FLA favoured. This should be another high action game.
Players to watch (FLA): Ranger (JNG), Absolut (ADC), WooFe (TOP)
Players to watch: (FUR): Anyyy (MID), Minerva (JNG), Alternative (ADC)