Are you new to horse racing? If so, you are likely looking for an easy set of tips to follow on how to pick a winning horse. Something you can easily implement that gives you at least a basic starting ground from which to learn. I have three horse betting strategies for you…super easy to learn, and you’ll be competitive your first time out to the track! In order to give credit where it is due, I have a bonus tip for you at the very bottom!
Choppodong is a senior contributor and coach at dfsarmy.com where he helps new daily fantasy sports players learn their favorite sports every day. You can follow him on Twitter, and interact with him in the DFSA family of chat rooms where you find him talking NFL, MLB, PGA, NHL, poker, horse racing, you name it…he’s probably involved helping newer players learn the ropes.
Tip 1 – Jockeys and Trainers
A good jockey can handle a horse. There is a reason some jockeys dominate their tracks and win more than 20% of their races. There is also a reason some jockeys don’t and win less than 5% of their races. Tracking these stats through Equibase.com or elsewhere can pay dividends quickly when capping horse racing. And, the same goes for their trainers.
If you watch the ML (Morning Line), you can quickly order the favorites of a race. 80% of your winners come from the top four ML favorites (and you don’t need a racing form to find the ML). Make a note of top jockeys and top trainers, especially those teaming up with the same horse. And, also note those combos overlooked in the ML. If I see a 6th favorite ML horse with an elite jockey/trainer combination on it, I’ll make special note of it. In fact, I’m not afraid to just place win bets on those combos regardless of odds. When they come in at under-the-radar prices, you can really give your ROI a little boost!
In the above graphic, Luis Saez, Tyler Gafflione, and Irad Ortiz, jr are three of the best jockeys Gulfstream Park has to offer. Watching the horses they ride can give you an edge when they land on a horse you already love. Each jockey is near the 20% win mark and also finishes in the money over 50% of the time.
Tip 2 – The Beaten Favorite
An oldie, but a goodie. The beaten favorite does require a racing form, or past performance information. You are looking for a horse whose odds were the favorite at post time in its last race. If said horse lost the race, there is often a solid chance the horse is still in great form and will bounce back its next time out for the win……..at better odds. Again, it’s something to check in horse racing forms, and it takes all of a few minutes to confirm. When this special event occurs on a horse you already like…..give that horse a little boost in constructing your tickets.
The above screenshot shows the section of a particular horse I’m blowing up below…
Young Hendrick was the favorite a couple of times a few races ago. The oval contains the post time odds, and the * denotes the horse being the favorite to win the race at post time. In our bottom number, the *1.40 indicates the horse was the favorite at 1.4/1 odds and lost, placing 5th. However, the next time out, Young Hendrick was the favorite again….and won. In the horse’s most recent race, it was favored again at *1.80…..and lost. This is what a “beaten favorite looks like.” If you already had this horse checked as one you liked in this race today, give it a little extra boost and apply the “beaten favorite” angle.
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Tip 3 – False Favorites
The “false favorite” is harder to find, but it’s a great indicator that you can find other horses with great chances at good prices. A false favorite is an easy angle to bet against. A vulnerable favorite can be bet against or included in exotic tickets like exactas and trifectas. A strong favorite usually shouldn’t be bet against. If pricing on the strong favorite are not to your liking, simply include at the tops of your exotic tickets for a little leverage. Let’s define these terms.
Use this simple checklist on the ML favorite before you start digging too deeply:
- Ability – Is the horse good enough to win? Look at speed figs and does this horse have the top speed fig in this race, or is it at least tied? If no, 1 pt. If not within even 5%-10% of the top speed fig, 2 pts.
- Condition – If raced within 30 days, we want to see no races within 14 days and no workouts within 10 days. A horse needs recovery. If this rule is broken (meaning raced or worked out too recently), 1 pt. However, if NOT raced within 30 days, we don’t want to see more than two workouts within the last 12 days. If it has more, 1 pt.
- Race – Has the horse proven in the money at this distance? If not, 1 pt. Has the horse proven in the money on this surface? If not, 1 pt. Has the horse proven in the money at this class? If not, 1 pt.
- Connections – Is the horse running for a trainer/stable with less than a 10% win rate? 1 pt. Is the jockey riding the horse winning at under 10%? 1 pt.
- Miscellaneous – Is the horse coming off a double class drop while in good form? This is suspicious behavior and warrants 1 pt. Has the horse failed to win any of its last 10 races? That’s 2 pts. If a maiden (never won) horse, has it been beaten two or more times under today’s conditions (class/distance/surface)? If yes, 2 pts. Is the horse overworked (has it seen no significant break in the last 45 days)? 1 pt. Is there a known track bias working against this favorite? 1 pt.
False Favorite – A false favorite will have 5 or more points from the above grading system, and you should strongly consider betting against the horse.
Vulnerable Favorite – A vulnerable favorite will have between 1 and 4 points. Depending on many factors, the horse may still be the strongest in the field and warrant a win type bet. But, it may also be truly vulnerable and only warrant consideration in exotic tickets.
Strong Favorite – A strong favorite will have 0-1 pts, and you should probably not bet against this horse in this race. You might watch pricing and make sure you are getting a good price, but these horses usually hold up when they get through that checklist above and don’t take points against their ability, form, condition, race, connections, and other factors.
Bonus Tip
Horse racing is about finding value, much like DFS. And, you should always be concerned with the price you are getting at the window. Build your discipline and learn to pass if a horse doesn’t “check the boxes” or meet your criteria. If you don’t have any criteria, our gurus at DFS Army are here to help.
Ryan and Trey are in our horse racing chat rooms daily, and they do a lot of the research for you. They are both very accessible and willing to share how they find horses and what they look for specifically. The above lists are just three of perhaps hundreds of betting angles for horse racing. Everyone has their own methods and consistency wins out over the long run, especially when combined with discipline.
TIP – I have found that simply using Ryan’s picks and/or Trey’s picks cut down 90% of the research I’d ever need to do. If they lay out four horses to focus on, in the order they like them, I can simply watch near post time and pick my horse or construct my exotic tickets. I can do very little of my own research (maybe I simply focus on applying these angles) and land on quality chances to win some easy money. I would encourage anyone to dive in, learn the basics, ask questions, and build their own routine. Horse racing really isn’t that different than DFS. If you like one, you probably like the other.
And, if you want to see yet another simple system (not for the faint of heart), take a look at another free piece I wrote for this year, Horse Handicapping Basics – The Easiest System You’ll Ever Use. If you like chasing the bigger money, this system is for you!