Are you new to handicapping horse racing? If so, you are likely looking for an easy system of tips to follow on how to win at horse racing. Something you can easily implement that gives you at least a basic starting ground from which to learn. I have just the system for you. Super easy to learn, and you’ll be competitive your first time out to the track! In order to give credit where it is due, I would like to thank Ryan, Trey, and the various members that have so patiently answered question after question in our horse-racing channels.
Below, are modifications of their betting systems they are teaching daily. However, this is just the tip of the iceberg. If you really want to improve your abilities at the track, you need to join us and ask them your questions. The real learning starts when you participate yourself!
Choppodong is a senior contributor and coach at dfsarmy.com where he helps new daily fantasy sports players learn their favorite sports every day. You can follow him on Twitter, and interact with him in the DFSA family of chat rooms where you find him talking NFL, MLB, PGA, NHL, poker, horse racing, you name it…he’s probably involved helping newer players learn the ropes.
The Easiest Horse Racing System You’ll Ever Learn
For the purposes of this article, I will assume you already know the basics of the win, place, show bets and you understand exactas, trifectas, and even what an exacta box is. If not, a simple google search will reveal all of these definitions in minutes. And, these terms are obviously essential for handicapping horse racing on any level.
With the basics under your harness, let’s take the blinkers off and dive into our system.
No Racing Form Required
You can certainly have one at your side if you like, but it won’t be necessary for what we are going to do. Again, I said EASY! We are going to watch the odds tables at the track, or online. We will watch as they fluctuate from 7/1 to 3/1 and beyond, and be looking for the heaviest favorites on the board as close to post time as it takes us to make our bets. The end goal is to identify the four heaviest favorites, like this…
Sample of Will Rogers Downs odds pre-race.
Our red circles are indicating the current four favorite horses. Right On By is the heaviest favorite (closest to 1:1 odds), Honest N Lucky follows, then Sidepocket Bet, and Diamond Legacy. Identifying these horses is fast, easy, and simple. No research required!
Now, there are a few deviations from our default horse racing handicapping system we will employ, but our default plan becomes incredibly basic.
The 4-Horse Exacta Box
Over the long run, the favorites come in most often. And, by boxing almost half the field, we don’t need to care which of the four come in, either. In fact, we sort of root for a shake-up because it pays better. The $1 exacta box costs $12 total for the race, and anything over $12 returned is a win. For readers I’m about to lose with the thoughts of “this isn’t sexy…this won’t make me rich tonight,” you’re exactly right. But, this system is easy….not sexy. If you want to learn the ropes, you need something methodical and competitive. You can always add wrinkles to spice things up once you get a default strategy down.
I will tell you over my sample of simply betting a $1 exacta box on the four favorite horses, I’m well up over the sample size. I’m consistent. And, I’m learning while winning…not frustrating myself trying to learn while losing. And, that’s a tremendous advantage to you mentally. It simply adds to the enjoyment of the hobby. And, it doesn’t get any easier than locating the four favorites, boxing them, and moving on. However, there are a few deviations…
The Deviations in Our Horse Racing System
The 5-Horse Exacta Box
In huge fields of eleven or more horses, I will sometimes expand my exacta box to include a 5th horse. The bet is expensive ($20), but does cover the field a little better. For this deviation to work, you need access to some “probable pay odds” or you need to be familiar enough to do this in your head quickly. With a $20 cost on a $1 exacta box, we are betting any of 20 combinations of horses to come in first and second. We want the overwhelming majority of combinations to be profitable. Some won’t be (usually those attached to the heaviest two favorites). If more than about four or five of these 20 combos are going to return less than my $20, I’m going to look for something else to bet. And, a smart option is always to just fade the race and wait for a better spot to bet.
The 3-Horse Exacta Box
It stands to reason that if we expand our box in large fields we shrink it in small fields. When the race has seven or fewer horses, I look to drop my standard 4-horse exacta box to a 3-horse exacta box. This deviation costs less at $6 because it is only carrying six combinations. We are still covering nearly half the field, though.
As mentioned above, we want to monitor our combinations for profitability. The experienced bettors have an inherent feel for this, but as beginners, we like having charts. A great site, drf.com, has such a chart under its live odds section called “probable pays.” Below is a quick video tutorial of a race, and I’ll guide you through the payouts of a 3-horse, 4-horse, and 5-horse exacta box in under 10 minutes…
The Field Bet
The Field Bet deviation is for situations we come across indicating one horse in a race is a massive favorite, approaching “even odds” (a 1:1 ratio). These strong horses will often come in first or second place. Our “field bet” will cover any combination as long as our favorite horse comes in first or second. For short, I like to call it the “all/x/all” bet where x is the number of the favorite horse. In technical terms, we call this a “key box over the field with horse x.” Again, check the profitability on the probable pays chart. If the vast majority of combinations are profitable, this bet can work well.
To calculate the cost of this bet, and its number of combinations, simply subtract the favorite horse from the total number of horses and multiply by two. For example, you have a 10 horse field and like horse 7. You would say you want “a $1 exacta box key boxing the 7 with the field.” And, because there are 10 horses, the cost of this bet would be 10 minus your horse, for nine horses. Multiply by two, and the final cost of this bet is $18.
That seems like a lot, and depending on your bankroll, it is. However, we can also eliminate some horses that don’t have much of a chance and lower our total cost. I will often eliminate horses with less than 25/1 odds to win. In our example, pretend the 4, 5, and 8 horses are real longshots. By eliminating them, we can now “key box the 7 horse with the 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, and 10” for a total cost of $12. We have 7 horses we are using, minus our horse (the 7), and multiply the remaining horses by two, which yields $12.
The $2/$5/$5 Win Place Show Bet
And, when all else seems to fail, we have a very simple bet we can make. In fact, many of you might simply default to this bet as your secondary option. The $2/$5/$5 win, place, show bet is exactly what it sounds like. You are placing $2 on your horse to win, $5 on it to place, and $5 on it to show. If it wins the race, of course, you sweep the board and win all three bets. If the horse only comes in third, you likely return most of your money. This bet is another $12 total bet, and it keeps us on par with our default budget per race.
However, I don’t typically use this bet on the favorite horse in the race. When I employ this bet, the favorite is usually close to even odds again, and I would rather the favorite horse place 2nd or lose the race allowing the second favorite horse to sneak off with the win and pay better. If I see two horses, one with odds of 7/5 and another with odds of 3/1, I am going to put this “2/5/5 wps” bet on the horse with the 3/1 odds and hope for a better payday.
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Handicapping Horse Racing Conclusion
If you google horse racing systems, you will find tons and tons from which to choose. Some will be simple. Some will be complex. If you read honest articles, the authors will tell you that every system works. And, in most cases, I believe they are correct. However, where gamblers go wrong is chasing system after system once they start losing money. It’s not the system, it’s you! All horse racing systems work if you allow them time to work. Stop chasing your tail, pick one, and give it a long test drive.
The system I laid out above, I believe, is one of the simplest you will ever find. I also believe it is easy to learn and employ quickly. By betting on the favorites, we are playing like we are Las Vegas in that we are usually betting on the horses most likely to come in winners. This system is designed to win frequently, albeit for smaller totals. But, if you visit a race track, you are constantly in the hunt for the win. You will hit a lot of exactas in a typical visit. And, you will very rarely have that truly horrible day. And, that is going to buy you plenty of time to add your own nuances and deviations to an already solid system of horse race betting.