Good morning/afternoon to you beautiful people out there in DFS land! You have managed to find yourself in a great spot here at DFS Army. I look forward to providing you with analysis and picks throughout this 2019 Tournament Season! Remember, if I mention a player as a cash game play they most likely are OK for GPP play. Let’s take a look at what games are on the slate for DraftKings. The KenPom score projections are in parenthesis.
Maryland (73) vs LSU (74)
Wofford (68) vs Kentucky (72)
Florida (56) vs Michigan (63)
Murray St (69) vs Florida St (74)
Baylor (69) vs Gonzaga (81)
Minnesota (67) vs Michigan St (77)
Villanova (67) vs Purdue (72)
Auburn (75) vs Kansas (74)
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MARYLAND vs LSU
This spot is positive for Maryland, the problem is that the guys in the paint that we want to target, have foul trouble issues. I really like the 2-point shooting of Maryland here, which means Fernando, J.Smith, and Morsell stand out to me. Morsell has been really solid lately so I think he offers us some cash safety while Fernando and Smith are the GPP guys who have big-time upside.
LSU’s strengths on offense play into Maryland’s strengths on defense. I love the attacking style of the offense and due to the pace, we have to consider Waters, Mays, Reid, Smart, and Bigby-Williams. LSU does not shoot it particularly well from the outside and that happens to be the way teams can attack Maryland. I love the way that Mays played on Thursday so I think I lean him in this spot along with Reid.
Preferred Plays: Morsell, Mays, Reid
WOFFORD vs KENTUCKY
This is an exciting match-up as we get Wofford’s elite 3-point shooting against a Kentucky team that can be beaten by the 3. On Thursday I preferred Jackson to Magee but in this one, I think I would flip-flop them. I also really like Hoover and Murphy in this spot as they could find themselves open with Kentucky trying to overplay Magee. I will definitely have Jackson exposure but he just doesn’t have the cash safety as he did on Thursday.
Looking at Kentucky, they should be able to dominate on the interior against a team that gave up monster games to the bigs of UNC early in the season. The problem is not knowing the status of PJ Washington. We need to learn about his status before we can make accurate decisions. If he is deemed good-to-go, I love him for GPPs in this one. If he is out again, I really like Travis and will have exposure to Richards and Montgomery. I have an interest in Herro, Hagans, and Johnson as they offer upside and may be able to pick up some steals with their length and pressure.
Preferred Plays: Hoover, Travis, Herro
FLORIDA vs MICHIGAN
This game is intriguing to watch as a CBB fan but not all that intriguing for DFS purposes. This should be the slowest game on the slate, by far. I think we can find one-off plays in this spot. We have targeted Michigan with bigs this season and that leads me to like the prospects of K.Johnson and Hayes. Johnson has the upside while Hayes probably has the safer floor. Nembhard is interesting because of his peripherals and Hudson is in play as a GPP option because of his ability to get hot.
I believe that Simpson is the ultimate cash gameplay as he is ultra safe and just gets things done for an efficient Michigan squad. Teske and Brazdeikis are guys that do offer upside in this game, while Matthews looked extremely healthy and explosive on Thursday. I like the idea of attacking Florida with wings who can attack the rim and get to the FT line. That would mean that Matthews and Brazdeikis are the two guys in the best spot.
Preferred Plays: K.Johnson, Matthews, Brazdeikis
MURRAY ST vs FLORIDA ST
This game is extremely interesting as FSU presents a really big test for Morant and Murray St. Morant definitely has GPP upside for us here but the length and athleticism of FSU could cause some problems. Of course, FSU does commit a ton of fouls and Morant is one of the best in the country at drawing fouls. If Morant is on his game, guys like Brown and Buchanan become extremely strong GPP plays as they can knock down shots from the perimeter. I like Cowart as a GPP play but he carries more risk in this match-up while Williams could be a solid GPP value play.
For FSU, I really want to use Mann and Kabengele. These are the two guys I believe present the biggest obstacles for Murray St. Those two do a lot of the same things that Sam Hauser does for Marquette. The rest of the starters do not excite me but I do have interest in Gray and Vassell as GPP dart plays. Both saw over 20 minutes on Thursday and have shown 20+ fantasy point upside.
Preferred Plays: Morant, Brown, Mann Kabengele
BAYLOR vs GONZAGA
Baylor gets the pace bump but they are facing a really tough defense in this game. There aren’t any safe options for Baylor in this game but they do have a few guys that make sense for GPPs. Mason is my favorite as he had a big game on Thursday and had a monster game a couple of years ago in the NCAA tournament when he was at Yale. Butler looked pretty good and has shown us a big-time upside throughout the season. Gillespie is somebody that can be used as a GPP dart play as his size is going to be needed but I worry about foul issues. Vital is usually one of my preferred plays but I worry about his lack of ability to shoot from outside and his atrocious FT shooting.
Baylor runs a zone nearly 50% of the time so that will open up perimeter shots for Perkins, Norvell, Kispert, and Tillie. Hachimura is a cash safe option while Clarke has monstrous GPP upside but a lower floor in this match-up. This is a game that could stay very competitive for much of the contest, especially if Baylor can knock down some perimeter shots.
Preferred Plays: Mason, Norvell, Tillie, Hachimura
MINNESOTA vs MICHIGAN ST
This is a tough spot for Minnesota as they just are not very talented. I do not want to spend up on Murphy and I think Coffey makes an interesting GPP play. Coffey has a low floor against MSU but has been playing really well over the last few weeks. I really have no interest in Oturu or McBrayer but could be talked into Kalscheur for GPP purposes thanks to his shooting ability.
Winston is one of the strongest cash game plays on tomorrow’s slate, even at his price point. I would consider Tillman, Goins, and McQuaid as GPP plays with upside. Henry is somebody that I can’t figure out. If we need to find value to make things work, I think he will be popular for cash games at his price point. He does have a lower floor and that scares me. Do NOT use Ward at this point. He is not going to see enough minutes to pay off his price point.
Preferred Plays: Winston, Tillman
VILLANOVA vs PURDUE
I believe that Villanova matches up extremely well with Purdue as they have guys to take advantage of Purdue’s weaknesses. Purdue is able to be beaten by 3’s and FTs. Over 42% of the shots against them come from 3. For cash games, I really like Booth and Samuels and for GPPs I want exposure to Paschall, Gillespie, and Bey. This is one of those spots that Gillespie could get hot from 3 and just carry the team for a while until Booth gets hot and takes over.
Edwards came out and silenced any whispers about him not being healthy and looked like the explosive guy that he was for much of the season. While I think he is an excellent play for GPPs, I may not be able to afford him. I am going to prefer using Cline as my Purdue shooter exposure. Nova can be beaten by the 3 so I want a guy who can get scorching hot. Haarms and Eastern are GPP plays but ones that I am not trying to jam into my lineups at this point.
Preferred Plays: Booth, Samuels, Cline
AUBURN vs KANSAS
This is another spot that we can attack Kansas with 3-point shooting. We just have to hope it actually works out this time as it definitely didn’t on Thursday. We have to consider Harper, Brown, Okeke, and Doughty as solid plays in this spot. I actually really like this game as a GPP stack option. I think Wiley and McCormick make sense as GPP dart plays.
Auburn gives up a ton of 3-point attempts, sends teams to the FT line a lot, and manage to allow teams to make a very high % of their 2-point shot attempts. Dedric Lawson is a very strong play as Kansas has to rely on him if they want to continue to advance. Dotson is probably my favorite Kansas play, especially for cash purposes. I love his game as he plays more like a senior than the freshman that he is. Guys like Garrett, Grimes, and Lightfoot are GPP plays for me. I could see Kansas going a bit smaller for most of this game which makes me lean Lightfoot over McCormack as the cheap Kansas big. KJ Lawson played extremely well on Thursday and might be in play as a GPP dart play.
Preferred Plays: Brown, Okeke, D.Lawson, Dotson
Make sure you tune in to the slack channel to get my updates as news comes out! We will be discussing CBB all afternoon and evening long. I will be updating my Coaches-Notes throughout the day. We will discuss what injuries we need to monitor and what they mean to our construction. I will also be posting my cores for each site in slack!