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We survived the first slate using the model. Unfortunately for most of us, the Baghdatis withdrawal coupled with the shock Herbert loss killed hopes of winning anything. The model was 5-3 for the last slate, really 5-2 when you take away the Tsonga game which I recommended fading due to data issues. We have a bigger slate today and the model is ready to get us in the action, so let’s get to it!
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Benoit Paire (50.638) vs. Quentin Halys (36.867)
All four models are in accordance here, with the gap widening between the players’ projections as we move towards the final model. Benoit Paire is the pick. Vegas also has Paire as a heavy favorite here. Paire is best used in Cash games since he doesn’t score a lot of points in his wins.
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Filip Krajinovic (56.663) vs. Corentin Moutet (49.247)
Filip Krajinovic is the favorite here to win this match. Vegas favors Krajinovic as well, so this is no surprise. Krajinovic is very capable of putting up high scoring games but also tends to occasionally put up a high number of double faults. This makes him a better GPP play.
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Gilles Simon (54.959) vs. Jiri Vesely (35.486)
Fun fact, the naked model had Vesely winning this game, but that quickly changed when the player characteristics and tendencies were considered. The odds data also solidified the final model outcome of Gilles Simon. The gap in projections here is huge, making Simon one of the top plays on this slate. He makes for an excellent all format play.
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Adrian Mannarino (42.244) vs. Marton Fucsovics (48.507)
Marton Fucsovics is favored here by all the models. He is also a slight favorite of Vegas. This is a close game as both players are comparable in skill level, however, Fucsovics has a slight advantage here. This game has the potential to go the full three sets and be close, be cautious with it.
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Richard Gasquet (38.428) vs. Constant Lestienne (44.856)
The model really likes Lestienne, but I’m not buying it. Gasquet is not a flashy player and his stats never tell the whole story. It’s not too hard to see why the model will prefer Lestienne. However, Richard Gasquet is far more experienced than Lestienne, and watching Lestienne today did not inspire any amount of confidence. I’m officially playing my veto card here and making the official call Gasquet. That said, it is wise to play Lestienne in at least one GPP lineup.
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Kei Nishikori (52.748) vs. Peter Gojowczyk (41.892)
This is an easy one. Nishikori is the much better player of the two, and the model and Vegas both favor him. Don’t over think this one. Play Nishikori!
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Mikhail Kukushkin (42.596) vs. Denis Istomin (54.322)
UPSET ALERT! The model has Istomin winning this one. Vegas favors Kukushkin here and Draftkings has priced them according to Vegas. Istomin is only $6,700 on Draftkings, making him an excellent value play on this slate based on the model. I’ll have a good amount of Istomin in GPPs, and if I really need a value saver in Cash games, I won’t hesitate to use a little bit of him.
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Mirza Basic (49.373) vs. Mikhail Youzhny (47.422)
UPSET ALERT! Another matchup where the dog is predicted to prevail by the model. Mirza Basic is slightly favored here by the model, even though Vegas odds are against him. Just like Istomin above, Basic makes for an excellent GPP play today especially at $6,900. While I trust the model, it will be too much to play both Basic and Istomin in the same lineup. Use them separately. This one is expected to be really close by the model, much more so than the Istomin game, so be cautious with it.
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Roberto Bautista-Agut (65.026) vs. Luca Vanni (26.696)
This one is simple. Play as much Bautista-Agut as you can handle in Cash games. He’s almost a lock here. He is expensive but for good reason. I still like him in GPPs, but that price is tough to stomach even in such a great matchup. I’ll use him, but I’ll be underweight the field in GPPs.
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Ilya Ivashka (53.697) vs. Guido Pella (37.743)
Ilya Ivashka is the pick here by the model, and by a comfortable margin as well. Vegas also favors Ivashka who is reasonably priced in the 8k mid-tier range. Ivashka makes for a good all format play on this slate.
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Denis Shapovalov (61.267) vs. Adrian Menendez Maceiras (30.486)
This is the second largest projection difference on the slate, with the model heavily favoring Shapovalov. Vegas is all over him as well, and DK has priced him accordingly, making him the highest priced on the slate. If you are wondering if the odds might be driving this huge gap, don’t. The gap without odds information is still 24 points. Shapovalov makes for an excellent Cash play. You can expect most Cash lineups to have one of Shapovalov or Bautista-Agut. You could possibly find a way to play them both using one of our key value plays, but that carries some slight risks.
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Stan Wawrinka (49.069) vs. Karen Khachanov (47.437)
We have another scenario where the dog is favored by the model to pull out the win. We all know Wawrinka is one of the most dangerous opponents you can face on the court, even at his advanced age of 33. Khachanov is a lot younger, at 22 and has some quality. This is going to be a great game and it could truly go either way. That said, this is probably the game to fade. Of the three upsets the model is predicting, this is the one with the least confidence. Wawrinka’s advantage in the model comes completely from his experience. Mostly fade this game, although you can use Wawrinka in a GPP lineup if making multiple. I personally won’t do it since I don’t think he scores enough even in a win.
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Martin Klizan (41.429) vs. Fabio Fognini (46.572)
The model sees Fognini taking this one, a result backed by Vegas. While Klizan was able to get through the first round, this is a much more difficult matchup for him. Fognini has the upper hand and is usable in GPPs.
PLAYS
Cash: Bautista-Agut, Denis Shapovalov, Gilles Simon, Kei Nishikori
GPPs: Filip Krajinovic, Ilya Ivashka, Fabio Fognini, Richard Gasquet
Value: Denis Istomin, Mirza Basic, Stan Wawrinka