Happy Monday morning DFS players! I go by “Thunder Dan” around here and you can find me @ThunderDanDFS on twitter. This week I will be handling pitching for most of the slates as my buddy @mdellagnese14 isn’t going to be able to write very often. As those who read either “Covering the Bases” or “Dr. StrangeChalk” know, I love talking about pitching and I think that 90% of the slates you should figure out your pitchers before you do anything else. Let’s take a look at our options on the mound for tonight’s 10-game main slate.
The Aces
Gerrit Cole
Cole is the top-priced pitcher on both sites today and is the number one rated pitcher in our DFSA grades with 99.8. He faces the Mariners for the fourth time this season and while he has pitched well against them, he has not dominated them in any of those starts. His FD output was 46, 42, and 26 points in those three games, but we know that Cole has 10+ k potential on any given night. I see no problem using him on FD where he is only 10.6k but at 13.3k on DK he’s probably not worth spending up for.
Corey Kluber
The Klub-Bot has finally regained some form after a stretch in July where he was getting hit hard and seemed to be nursing an injury that was affecting his delivery. He has gone 7+ innings in his last four starts and recorded seven strikeouts in his last three outings. The matchup with the Red Sox is the toughest on the slate, so I don’t see Kluber being very popular tonight. At 10.4k on FD he is a possible pivot off the much more popular Cole, but at 11k on DK he is still way too pricey for me over there. I don’t know if I’ll have the guts to use Kluber today, but any time you can get an ace pitcher at 5% ownership, it’s not a bad idea as a leverage play in GPPs.
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The Zach Wheeler Tier
The Zach Attack gets his own tier today. He’s priced just below the two aces and Rick Porcello (who I am not recommending against the powerful Indians offense tonight). I have been playing Wheeler for the last month and he hasn’t disappointed, reeling off six straight wins and averaging 42.5 FD points over that time. Wheeler’s lowest output since early June was his last start against the Orioles, and that was even a bit fluky since he only struck out three and was lifted after five innings due to the Mets have a double-digit lead at that point in the game.
Wheeler faces the Giants at home today and is a -120 favorite. His DFSA grade of 98.4 is right behind Cole’s and he’s so much cheaper. His 23.4% strikeout rate matches up nicely with the Giants 23.5% whiff rate. We were able to successfully pick on the Giants with Luis Castillo yesterday and I’ll be going right back to the well today and rostering Wheeler as my cash game pitcher and my #1 GPP pitcher. Let others overthink pitching today, I’m not worried about Wheeler’s ownership. His floor and ceiling in this matchup are too good to pass up on at his price (9100 FD, 9300 DK)
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The Others
Chris Archer
Archer has our third best DFSA grade today at 96.8, but a relatively tough matchup at home against the Atlanta Braves. Pirate fans like myself have been waiting for Archer to put up a big performance as a member of the Buccos and he has largely disappointed thus far, failing to get through six innings in each of his first three starts and giving up nine earned runs.
This could be the breakout performance we are looking for. Archer still sports an elite strikeout rate and is pitching in spacious PNC Park. He really needs to get some quick outs and not run up his pitch count with walks and the good news is that he has only walked two hitters in his last 10 innings. The price (7900 FD, 7800 DK) is too good to pass up for a pitcher of Archer’s ilk and he’s my favorite of the mid-tier options today.
Derek Holland
Two months ago I would have said, “there is no way I will be writing up Derek Holland on a regular basis this season.” However, Holland has proven this year that he is still capable of being an above-average MLB starter. He’s bounced in and out of the rotation this year but has pitched well enough to stay in the rotation for the last month. Holland averages a strikeout per inning and has a great “on paper” matchup against the Mets tonight. I’ve been using left-handers against the Mets most of the season, they have some of the worst offensive statistics against southpaws in MLB.
Just be warned, the Mets offense is HOT right now, and Rosario/McNeil/Frazier and whoever catches (both are hitting lefties well) are fine options of their own tonight. Still, Holland’s a bargain at only 7300 on FD and 8100 on DK.
Alex Wood
I have to admit I haven’t used Wood more than a handful of times this season. He hasn’t flashed a ton of upside this year, managing to hit 43 FD points three times this year as his highest output. His strikeouts are down and the Dodgers continue to keep him on a short leash with pitch counts, allowing him to go more than six innings just twice this entire season.
The good news is that he continues to have a solid floor, which is what makes him a solid cash game target (only 8k on DK, makes a nice pairing with Wheeler there). He’s only failed to reach 15 DK points four times this entire season. If you’re rostering Wood tonight, you’re looking for six solid innings and run prevention, not strikeouts.
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