Are you ready for some football?
We are so close to NFL season and it is time to get ready. One of the most important ways to prep for an upcoming season is deciding how to attack the season from a strategy aspect. I am going to explain three different ways that you can multi enter lineups to help you decide if multi-entering is for you. For those of you who have been around for a season or more, you have probably seen me around. If you have joined us more recently let me introduce myself.
My name is Aaron but better known as PVAaron. I have been staff and a contributor for DFS Army since the early days. Most notably I covered kickers for Fanduel and put out an article for defense selection. I love when NFL is here and because I am so excited it is almost NFL season I am going to help you kick off the season by helping you join the DFS Army and save each month. If you go here click sign up on the right pricing option for you and then use promo code KICKERS you will take 10% off your subscription each month.
Let me show you why you want to join.
I am going to give you a quick break down on a few reasons why you should join the DFS Army before I start breaking down ME for you. My favorite is you are not going to just pay for NFL when you join. When you join we give you every sport for the same price with no other fees to access NBA or NHL or even PGA. You can year round DFS with pros covering every sport. Why pay someone else more for just NFL when we give you everything?
You will need an optimizer.
You are here because you are interested in MME which means you are going to need access to an Optimizer to help you build those lineups. Another perk to joining the DFSA is you get access to our optimizer with amazing features and you can either use our projections or your own. Slack, Domination Station (optimizer), direct access to coaches/pros, all VIP content, and a community of like-minded people who can talk sports 24 hours a day are just a few of the reasons you will want to join. Don’t forget you save 10% by using the promo KICKERS and if you are still not convinced check out our Wall of Wins
What are the ways you can multi enter?
There are a few different ways for you to multi enter (ME) into contests on both Draftkings and Fanduel. I will be going into the three styles I enjoy and also be giving you an idea of how to build lineups for each style. Sadly it was far too much to fit into one posting, so I will be breaking down the three styles into its own post. As I finish I will be updating this post to link to the other two.
The three types of multi-entry we are going to focus on are the standard 150 lineups, the Draftking special 20 max, and my personal favorite the multi-league. Stay tuned if you are not sure what multi-league is because I will be breaking that down further. We will start with 150 max because I believe that is the most exciting and the format that most people look at when they multi-enter.
What your goal is when you max enter a contest.
When you are building 150 lineups and entering it into a massive contest with hundreds of thousands of other people you are building for a perfect lineup. While you may always try building a perfect lineup when it comes to massive contests the only way to long-term profit is to build a nuts or close to the nuts lineup. These contests are built to have a very top heavy payout structure. If you are not in the top 10 you are not making big money. You might even finish in the top 100 and not break even on entry fees. This is why it is so important to get the top 10 finish and preferably first place. If you were to max Fanduel’s Sunday Million at $9.00 an entry it costs you $1350 to enter. Anything above 60th and you might be losing money so be warned that this is a high-risk high reward situation as first gives you 1 million.
Now that you understand what you are trying to accomplish, let’s look at how you might accomplish this.
Hopefully, you understand why so many people suggest against MME as a sustainable bankroll model. It is very top heavy and not an easy task to accomplish. If you are not ready to drop 100’s or 1000’s for a shot at life-changing money you could always MME for cheaper thanks to .25 contests you can max enter for as little as 37.50. Something pretty easy for many bankrolls to balance in a standard 80/20 split. If you want to save even more I will have some options for you coming up so keep tuned to the other two parts of this series.
Pick your slate.
The fewer games on a slate the easier it can be to pick a nuts lineup. If you are just starting out you could focus your MME on a smaller slate like the Primetime slate or maybe an afternoon only slate. The fewer games there are to pick from the fewer players you have to guess on to get the nut lineup. The downside is that there is more chance that you get the right lineup and then split with several other maybe even several hundred others. This is a great way to get your feet wet and learn to use an optimizer like the Domination Station.
Reduce your player base to increase your focus.
Remove the players you are not using from the optimizer. There are so many players in even a small two or three-game slate who will not be a factor. Remember we are not removing punt or long shot players here. Simply remove the players who will not see the field or who you have zero interest in playing. This will make the step of exposure less intimidating. If you change your mind you can always remove or add a player later so don’t feel locked in if new information changes your mind. This is most often required when injury news hits closer to lock.
How you can determine your exposure.
Understand ownership and how you will use it to your advantage. One way to select exposure is based on the expectation of a player and their expected ownership by the field. I will use an example to explain this further:
You have three QB from a two-game slate: Aaron Rodgers, Blake Bortles, Drew Brees. Of the three we are choosing from we need to determine just how many lineups we will use each of them in. My favorite way I determine each players exposure is based on ownership. You can either pick from your own knowledge or guesswork, or you can use the DFS Army’s projections that you will have access too as a member (link to join). For this example, we will say Rodgers is projected 40% Brees is 30% and Bortles is 25%. Now we can go down the list and decide do we agree with the field or do we disagree. If we agree we run Rodgers around 40%. If we disagree because we think Rodgers dominate than we run him higher maybe run him 50-60 percent. Finally, if think he will not make great value run him lower at maybe 25%.
Why we base exposure on ownership.
The reason you are doing that is if Rodgers is owned 40% by the field and we also own him 40% then we have the same chance to have Rodgers stacked with the rest of the nut lineup. If we are convinced that Rodgers is going to be the pick at QB than we would want to increase those shares above the field to increase our chances at the nut lineup. Then if we believe that Rodgers is going to not do well in his matchup we reduce to below the field. This will reward us if we are correct and give us less dead lineups over the field. If we are wrong we at least keep a small chance to produce the nut lineup it just will take more luck. We can do this for every player in every lineup slot. It is a better process for selecting your stud players exposure. For the punt or long shot players, we can just give them a base five or 10 percent. Then when we set up the optimizer if we use tournament mode it will spread who they are stacked with.
Do not forget the random player “punt”.
If you put 500,000 lineups in one contest there is a good chance that a player who normally isn’t a factor will put up a big score and be needed for first. Those players are what we refer to as “punts” and you want to make sure you have exposure to smart punts. Punts are often players who are game specific. When they have big weeks you want exposure if they go off. You will not be able to play every single player which is why not all players are punts. Some are just stupid plays (even if it works out it is a stupid play). I have even seen it in the past where someone was rewarded for starting a backup QB ( I DO NOT RECOMMEND THIS) I simply want to point out that stuff like this happens.
Who can be a punt?
Punts can be that wide receiver who gets the deep pass. They might only get two or three targets a game which means they have to catch the ball and make the most out of it to score. If that 5,000 salary cap WR catches two throws gets 140 yards and two touchdowns their score will be massive. Last year we saw Adrian Peterson be a great payoff in his first start in Arizona. He was close to min price and put up over 25 points on Draftkings. If you had him in a GPP that weekend you had a great chance to cash. Punts are high risk, high reward plays. When they do not go off you lose, when they do go off you might win.
Another way to locate the right punts.
When you are building your lineups look at the players you are already selecting. If you are taking Rodgers who is he going to throw to. Does he only ever throw to the 1 and 2 guys or does he like to throw a deep bomb to the young rookie every now and again? Sure that rookie might only catch 4 touchdowns a season making them a horrible play most weeks. However, what if this is the week he goes 88 yards 2 catches and a TD? That minimum price starts looking really good return on investment.
Stacks and stacks and correlation.
When we are building for the nuts we want all the players who bring the best value. If Rodgers is the best value or scoring quarter back there is a good chance that one or two of his wide receivers also are. A simple stack would be Rodgers with WR one. Maybe we push it even more and Rodgers with WR 1 and WR 2. You could take that even further because if Rodgers and WR 1 & 2 are in the nut line up then who scored points for the opponent? Rodgers with WR 1 & 2 and bring it back with opponent WR 1. These are just examples but you can play with these stacks.
More Correlation.
Who else can you stack with correlation? You could look to the defense and see who returns punts/kickoffs? Those players almost never score but when they do it almost a lock that a defense is going to have a big score. You will gain the TD from the defense and the WR. Then if that player also gets one or two catches they have a chance to produce a big score. You could also say Jacksonville defense is going to dominate the game. When a defense dominates that teams offense tends to have a shorter field position and has a high time of possession. When a team has short field position and higher time of possession it benefits the running back most. Running back and defense is a stack that correlates it is a one-sided correlation. If a running back does well it does not mean the defense will do well. This is more of a stack when you like a defense first.
Look at how your team works and then make sure you maximize the points you receive from each position on the field. You are shooting for the best lineup, not a good lineup so look deeper than you would for a cash lineup. Once you find someone look and see who else would be benefitting from them having a big game. Who will have to work harder on the other side of the ball to keep up?
Diversify for even more chance to hit the nuts.
Even though you are stacking your team does not mean you want your stacks to be exactly the same. Stack Rodgers with WR 1, then Rodgers with WR 1 & WR 2, then Rodgers with WR1 & opposing WR 1. If the 150 lineups have 75 of them with Rodgers at the quarterback then we need to make sure those lineups are not all identical. Those lineups need to have at least two players different than the last. If you have 75 lineups with Rodgers and then 70 lineups with his wide receiver 1 and that player were to get hurt you have 70 dead lineups. If you were correct though and Rodgers was the nut QB you are down to 5 lineups to win first. That takes a lot of luck and we do not want to increase our chance to win by luck.
I am maxed out on this entry.
Max entering is not for everyone and if it isn’t for you that’s okay. There are other options that can be even more fun. Make sure you are doing what is fun for you and not just trying to win all the money. When you are not enjoying the process you will not maximize your chances to succeed as you rush the process.
I hope this was able to help explain the benefits and the work it takes to max enter 150 lineups or maybe 100 if you want to cut a little money off the entry fees. Really any number over 50 lineups. If you want to focus on the 20 max contests look for Part 2 of this series.