Welcome to the second to last week of our 11 straight weeks of fights. After that, we will have a few week break before we jump into a nice run of cards. This week we are in Orlando for a 12-fight card. There are plenty of spots to fade this week and some nice favorites to target. The hardest part of this card is navigating which dogs we want to target. As always don’t forget to become a VIP if you aren’t already one. We will have the DFS Army MMA Research Station as well as discussing the fights in great detail with some of the best DFS MMA minds out there.
First I would like to congratulate the DFS Army’s leader Kevin aka FFootballgeek on his first-place finish last week in the MMA $80k Hook on DraftKings! Congrats on a great week.
Be sure to listen to Kevin’s VIP Knockout MMA Podcast for this week with your VIP membership! Without further ado lets break down these fights.
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Bermudez (-170) 8.8k vs Morales (+150) 7.4k
Bermudez is making his UFC debut. He has a solid jab and solid takedowns (TD’s). He also looks to have a good ground game to go along with his solid submissions. Morales is a solid striker. With this being Bermudez’s first fight in the UFC I haven’t seen enough to trust him in cash games. I don’t mind him in GPP’s as Morales has shown in the past to be not very good off his back. In turn, I don’t hate Morales as a GPP punt. He has faced better competition. Overall I will have shares of both in GPP’s.
Perez (-135) 8.7k vs Shelton (+115) 7.5k
Perez is solid overall. He is a solid grappler with good submissions. He also has good cardio. Shelton is also solid overall. He is a good striker with decent power. He is also athletic with good TD’s. Shelton right away jumps out as an obvious value play in all formats (all his losses have been via dec). He will be very popular though. For that reason, I will be sure to have exposure to Perez in GPP’s. In short Shelton in cash and shares of both in GPP’s. Whoever wins should produce a solid DK score.
Yahya (-250) 9.3k vs Doane (+210) 6.8k
Yahya is a decent striker. He has a very good ground game with decent TD’s. Doane is coming into this fight losing three of his last four fights. He is a decent striker with decent cardio. I only will be targeting this fight in GPP’s. Neither land and a very high volume. Both average more than two TD’s per fight. That makes we want to have some shares of both. Not sure about how much. I will give more thoughts on this in Slack after weigh-ins.
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Prachnio (-240) 9k vs Alvey (+200) 7.2k
Prachnio is another fighter making his UFC debut. He is a solid striker with decent power. Alvey is a very low output counter striker. He isn’t very aggressive and basically needs a KO to get a decent DK score. For that reason, I will most likely be fading Alvey (specifically if you are trying to limit your fighter pool. Prachnio I will be sure to have exposure to in GPP’s. I just don’t feel safe enough to use him in cash games. The play here is Prachnio in GPP’s and fade Alvey.
Jouban (-270) 9.1k vs Saunders (+230) 7.1k
Jouban is a solid striker with a good jab. He also has decent leg kicks. Saunders is good in the clinch with decent knees. He has a good ground game with decent submissions. Both fighters have shown to have chin issues in the past. For that reason, this is a fight to target in GPP’s. My preferred play is Jouban. He lands almost 1 ½ more SS’s so, I just see it more likely that he catches Saunders first. I will have some exposure to Saunders as well. I think a good strategy is to fade Saunders in your 3-entry max lineups and then use him a bit in the multi-entry GPP’s.
Hill (-160) 8.2k vs Moroz (+140) 8k
In cash and small entry GPP’s just auto fade both here and move on. Hill is an ok striker with decent output. She has shown in past to tire the longer the fight goes. Moroz is a decent boxer. She is a counter striker so she tends to land at a low volume (2.55 SS’s). If a am playing anyone in the fight it will be Moroz. This is more of an ownership play. Hill sounds like she will be popular and I a fading here everywhere. In short, fade this fight for the most part but, use Moroz only in multi-entry (1-2 lineups if making more than 12 lineups).
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McMann (-240) 8.2k vs Reneau (+200) 7.3k
McMann is a former Olympic wrestler with good TD’s. Reneau is a tough fighter and a decent striker. I really like McMann in GPP’s and don’t hate her in cash if she fits in your last spot. Just be aware that she has been known to quit in fights quickly. I am willing to take the chances on her in GPP’s if she does win it will be via grappling and TD’s. With the history of McMann giving up mentally early in fights I will also have some lineups with Reneau.
Barao (-150) 8.5k vs Kelleher (+130) 7.7k
Barao is a veteran fighter that at 1 point in his career was considered one of the best pound for pound fighters in the UFC. He is a solid striker with very good TD defense (90%). Kelleher is a tough fighter and a good striker. He is a good wrestler with decent submissions. Barao has a history of gassing in fights. I just don’t trust him enough in cash even at his odds. I think Kelleher is the better play and a live dog here. I don’t mind target him in either format. I might have a few shares of Barao but the smart play is to fade him and move on.
Perry (-365) 9.4k vs Griffin (+305) 6.8k
Perry is a good striker with big power. Griffin is a decent striker with good power. He has shown to be very durable in previous fights and hard to finish. In cash games, I am locking in Perry and moving on. In GPP’s Perry is going to be very popular. I don’t hate the idea of having lower exposure to and targeting cheaper fighters with just as much upside. I also might use Griffin in one lineup in my multi-entry contests I am maxing out. Overall Perry is 1 of the safest plays on the board. Just be aware if the fight doesn’t end early he might not score enough to take down a GPP.
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Saint Preux (-125) 8.3k vs Latifi (+105) 7.9k
Saint Preux (OSP) is a solid striker with good power. He has good leg kicks and has shown improved cardio in recent fights. Latifi is a decent striker. He is solid on the ground with decent TD’s. This fight is pretty much a toss-up and the DK prices show this. I will have shares of both. Not exactly sure how I am going to target this fight yet. Be sure to join me in Slack as fights get closer.
Andrade (-320) 9.2k vs Torres (+260) 7k
Andrade is a good striker with good power. Torres is a good striker with solid leg kicks. Both land at a good rate. Right away I really like Torres in cash games. Andrade is playable in all formats. I know I will have exposure to this fight in all formats. I have even considered stacking this in cash games. Whoever wins this fight will score well. It’s just a preference play on how you want to construct your lineups on who you have higher exposure to.
Stephens (-160) 8.6k vs Emmett (+140) 7.6k
In cash games stack this fight and move on! Stephens is a good striker with good leg kicks. He has decent power and pretty much held his own and faced everyone in this division. Emmett is a good striker with good power. He is a decent wrestler with solid TD’s. In GPP’s I like Emmett more for his price. I think he has more ways to win this fight and has a good ceiling. Stephens can win this fight so I will have exposure to him as well. My preferred play is Emmett. So, I will most likely end up with more shares of him.
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Again be sure you take advantage of MMA Research Station and listen to the podcast. Good Luck Army!
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