The Way Too Early 2018 Fantasy Football Mock Draft by Alan Seslowsky @alanseslowsky
Calling all fantasy football draft addicts. Yes, I’m talking to you. The fantasy football players who just lost by 1 point in your last meaningful season-long fantasy game of the 2017 season. What’s that? You swore off fantasy football for good this time? I don’t believe you. Did you just say this game is bullshit, it’s all luck? How did the crappy owner in my league that knows nothing about fantasy football just win the whole thing?
That’s right, it happens to us all. We study, analyze, and mock draft all year round thinking we have an edge on the casual players and still we come up short. Just like that ex-girlfriend, you said you would never go back to; we find ourselves in the same ol’ situation. We are fantasy addicts!
So why fight it? Just go with what feels good for the moment. With fresh wounds from my fantasy football loss on the lateral play the Raiders botched against the Eagles I take a very early pass at the first two rounds of your 2018 redraft PPR leagues.
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Round 1
1.1 Todd Gurley (RB1) If you owned @TGIII in 2017 there is a good chance you won your league. He fell to the mid-second round in most 12 team leagues last year. No such luck in 2018. Only those with a top three pick have a shot at Todd Gurley in 2018. A rare 20+ touch runner that catches passes and gets all of the goal-line work.
1.2 LeVeon Bell (RB2) It feels like Bell has been in the league forever. Believe it or not, he is only 25 years old! There should be no fear of a drop off as he is currently peaking. The interesting thing about Bell is his contract status. He is a free agent in 2018. Odds are the Steelers resign him, but Bell has made noise about runners being underpaid in the NFL. There is a non-zero chance he could walk to a higher bidder and end up in a less favorable situation. I’d still bet on Bell’s talent as a do everything RB and a safe top 3 fantasy asset again in 2018.
1.3 Ezekiel Elliott (RB3) With his legal problems behind him and no threat of suspension “Zeek” will be sure to go in the top few picks. He is fun to own since he piles up yardage and TDs on a consistent basis. Before his six-game suspension, Elliot was also catching passes, justifying his PPR value above the wide receivers that are likely to go in round one.
1.4 Antonio Brown (WR1) Money in the bank. There is no safer pick than AB. Year to year and game to game consistency is what makes Brown so valuable. If Big Ben retires, I would move Brown down a bit. Brown will be 30 years old when 2018 kicks off, but wide receivers tend to age better than running backs and tight ends. AB’s short area quickness and ability to avoid the big hit also should add years to his career. For 2018 he has no concerns of performance erosion.
1.5 David Johnson (RB4) Remember this guy? Ya, the guy who was the consensus #1 overall fantasy player heading into 2017. Well, he is coming back in 2018. Out of sight out of mind, but let’s not forget what a consistent monster DJ was when he won leagues for teams in 2015 and 2016. Johnson will go #1 overall in many competitive leagues once fantasy owners see he is the same player we knew in 2016. David Johnson’s season-ending injury in week one was to his wrist. That is cause for optimism that he is the same player. If the injury was a lower-body injury, I think there would be reason for more concern.
1.6 DeAndre Hopkins (WR2) Welcome back to the first round DeAndre! We missed you in 2017. After he busted as a first round pick in 2016 many fantasy owners let him fall to the end of round two and in some cases to the early third. If you owned Hopkins you already know that he does not fail…ever! Hopkins has suction cups for hands, catching everything thrown his way. With DeShawn Watson due back that only increases Hopkin’s value in 2018. I would set the conservative under/over for receptions & yards at 105/1500 in 2018.
1.7 Kareem Hunt (RB5) The first round is insanely deep for 2018. You will be off your rocker thrilled to land the Hunt in the middle of round one. Aside from a five-week stretch where Andy Reid foolishly phased Hunt out of the game plan, Kareem was an elite runner and pass catcher. He is one of those players that seems to fall forward for an extra two yards when he is gets tackled. Former starter Spencer Ware will be back, but likely as a depth option. It’s Kareem Hunt’s backfield for 2018.
1.8 Odell Beckham (WR3) In 2015 ODB came off the board ahead of Antonio Brown in some drafts. The highlight reel catches, sideline toe taps, and excitement he brings to the game make him one of the most fun to own players in fantasy. However bad coaching and play calling has actually limited his upside if you can swallow that. The new Giants coach (hopefully Josh McDaniels, the Patriots current OC) will unlock his true upside, the best parts of Jerry Rice and Randy Moss. Odell is my favorite first round value.
1.9 Alvin Kamara (RB6) Alvin may be ranked ninth but it would not surprise me if he were a top two pick in August. Much of where Kamara gets picked on draft day will depend on who his backfield mate is. Mark Ingram is under contract with New Orleans for the 2018 season, however, if you examine the fine print in his deal, you will notice that if Ingram makes the NFL All-Pro Team, he becomes a free agent. This would allow him to explore the market. If Ingram were to leave and the backfield becomes Kamara’s alone… watch out!
1.10 Leonard Fournette (RB7) A workhorse runner on a run first/defensive minded team at pick 10? 2018 is starting to feel a lot like fantasy football in 1997 when the first two rounds were loaded with 25+ touch RBs. Fournette exceeded high expectations coming into the league as a top four real draft pick in 2017. The false narrative was that he could not be a three-down runner since he lacked pass-catching ability. He is averaging just over 2.6 grabs per game, which extrapolates to 42 receptions on the season. That is gold in PPR leagues. I would be thrilled to land him at the end of round one.
1.11 Mark Ingram (RB8) Mark Ingram is coming off his best fantasy year since entering the NFL. He will end the season close to 1200 yards and will have close to 60 receptions. What made him even more valuable in 2017 was the switch in strategy by the Saints to be a run dominant team. Ingram cashed in with 12 touchdowns (at time of print) this season. If he stays in New Orleans there is no reason to think the Saints would deploy him differently. Mark Ingram is 28 years old and presents no “cliff risk” for the coming season.
1.12 Saquon Barkley (RB9) For those drafters who follow NCAA football, this ranking does not need to be explained. For the readers who learn about the rookies during the draft process, make sure you know this runners name well. “Quon” is 2018’s best running back prospect from Penn State. Barkley will likely be a top ten real-life draft pick. He projects to be a lead runner that can do it all. Check out his Youtube highlight reel for some inspiration. Personally, I hope he lands in San Francisco, where Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garapalo can use his talents.
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Round 2
2.1 Davante Adams (WR4) The torch has officially been passed to Adams in Green Bay. Like it or not he is the alpha pass catcher on the team. Davante Adams is a free agent so the executives at Lambeau better get their checkbook out and pay the man who is about to go HAM on the NFL in 2018. Should he walk, look for teams like San Fran, Indianapolis, and Dallas to gladly pay the freight for this year’s most coveted non-QB free agent. He is the perfect pick on “the wheel” of 12 team snake drafts.
2.2 Julio Jones (WR5) 2018 is the year that Julio falls out of the first round. The sample size is large enough to conclude he doesn’t score touchdowns like you want in a first-round pick. The catches and yards are always “bet-able” for Jones but those monster games are too far and few between. Landing him in round two is a nice pick.
2.3 A.J. Green (WR6) AJG is still an excellent WR but no longer belongs among the elite in fantasy. He finished 2017 as WR10 through week 16 and should still be a rock-solid WR1 for fantasy. His early second round price makes Green one of the best boring picks you will make. AJG may still make it into the first round for those who do not want to take a risk on running back. He is as reliable as they come at any position.
2.4 Melvin Gordon (RB10) It can be argued that opportunity is more important than elite skill for running backs in fantasy. Gordon is averaging under 3.8 YPC (yards per carry). Compare that to Mark Ingram who averages more than a full yard each time he totes the rock. Gordon is not particular fast or quick but he gets 18 running attempts per game. In today’s NFL that is top five. Austin Eckler looks like he will have a role next year but that shouldn’t interrupt Gordon’s hold as the lead dog in a good offense. Take Gordon with confidence in round two.
2.5 LeSean McCoy (RB11) Sorry folks, I am not ready to write off “Shady.” Let’s start with the bad; he will be entering his age 30 season with massive mileage on him. His YPC were down from 5.4 to 4.1. Who cares? I didn’t see any signs of slow down when I watched Buffalo this season. He stayed incredibly healthy and produced reliable numbers is most weeks. This offseason you will undoubtedly hear the “running backs fall off a cliff at 30 years old,” but I urge you to put your index fingers in your ears and ignore the noise. I am willing to punt the age cliff risk one more year for McCoy.
2.6 Jordan Howard (RB12) Simply stated, he is really good at football. A powerhouse who welcomes contact, Jordan Howard is a throwback style runner that gets healthy volume. I have him ranked below McCoy since he is a 20 catch player vs 50+ that McCoy is projected to have. In PPR formats that is a significant disadvantage. I can’t see his reception total increasing since “The Human Joystick,” Tarik Cohen, will be the primary pass-catching option in the backfield for Chicago’s young offense.
2.7 Tyreek Hill (WR7) This pick is not for the risk-averse. To own Tyreek is to appreciate Tyreek. He is one of a handful of players in fantasy that can single-handedly win your week for you. Many of us Hill truthers were laughed at when we “reached” for him in the early third round of a high stakes drafts last season. Hill finished as WR4 in PPR formats. Tyreek Hill leads the league in receptions of 40+ yards with 9. Whether it’s Alex Smith and his new willingness to throw downfield or it ends up that rocket-armed Patrick Mahomes gets the job; lock and load the most fun player to own in fantasy. I’m all in on Ty-Freek as a second-round league winning pick.
2.8 T.Y. Hilton (WR8) Hilton’s ranking assumes Andrew Luck is back to full health. . If Luck’s status is in question I would advise letting another player in your league draft him. TY is one of the best big-play threats in all of football. Many elite cover cornerbacks in the league identify Hilton as one of the hardest receivers to cover because of his ability to run any route. He is instant offense and a WR1 for fantasy.
2.9 Mike Evans (WR9) Tampa’s whole offense underwhelmed in 2017. After watching HBO feature The Bucs this past summer, Evan’s draft stock was out of control. I saw him going in the first six picks in competitive drafts. He was drafted as a WR1 but produced like a lower end WR2, finishing as WR18 after 16 weeks in PPR. If you can get him at the end of round two, I am more than willing to go back to the well. If he goes at the end of the first round or on the turn, I will likely pass.
2.10 Michael Thomas (WR10) Those who bought Michael Thomas as a late first-round pick in 2017 were likely disappointed by his weekly output. They are right to feel that way but it makes total sense why he was not a weekly difference maker. He was miscast as a true number one wideout. Thomas has great hands and will win on contested balls, but he is not a field stretcher. He finished as WR6 but you didn’t get what you paid for. The middle or end of round two is a better place to earn value for the third year receiver.
2.11 Derrick Henry (RB13) It’s time to take the Ferrari out of the garage and hear the engine crackle. Henry passes the eye test when he gets volume. Henry’s ranking assumes that DeMarco Murray is released, traded, or relegated to backup duties.
2.12 Kenyan Drake (RB14) Who knew Drake was any good? The Dolphins did! Miami put their money where their mouth is by trading Jay Ajayi in order to clear the path for Kenyan Drake to be the lead dog. Drake has a clear path to 1400 YFS and 60 catches. He has plausible upside to be a top-five runner in fantasy.
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Notable Omissions That Will Fall to Round 3
Devonta Freeman Perfectly reasonable second round pick. If Derrick Henry is still sharing with Murray, Freeman would take his spot in my ranking after Drake.
Rob Gronkowski He will likely be selected in round two, but in many drafts last year he did fall to the early third. Some drafters do not like constructing their rosters with an early TE, which is top heavy and deep again for 2018.
Keenan Allen In 2017 he stayed healthy for the first time in a long time and finished as the WR3 in PPR through 16 weeks. Someone in your league will click “draft” on Allen in round two, but I have a hard time taking a guy that doesn’t bust long plays and doesn’t score double-digit touchdowns.
Larry Fitzgerald Similar to Keenan Allen, Fitz over delivered his ADP by catching everything thrown his way. 1100 yards and 100 catches is extremely useful in PPR leagues, but with QB issues, age concern, and no big playability he is better suited for round 3 or 4.
Dalvin Cook, He certainly looked like a three-down workhorse that was about to take the NFL by storm before he went down with a season-ending injury early on. The Vikings running game surprisingly was still very good in the hands of Latavious Murray and Jerrick Mckinnon. The genie is out of the bottle, and we could be looking at a three-way committee with a smaller market share of touches for Cook. Still a great player that deserves to be picked in round three.
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