Welcome to the last article of 2017. Having lost a fight on this card last week we are down to 10 fights on the card. Also, unlike most cards with the way odds are there is pretty much zero mid-range value. What that means, in a nutshell, is whether it be cash or GPP. You will need to have at least 2 dogs in your lineup. Let’s try and make some money this week and help pay off all those credit card bills from the holiday shopping. As always don’t forget to jump in Slack with any questions you may have. As always be sure to check out the MMA Research Station and be sure to follow me on Twitter! If you are not a VIP member, take a look at all of the great DFS tools and content you have access to here.
Before we get to the breakdown I wanted to highlight a few of the big wins DFS Army members have had in December including several $50,000 wins and a trip to the Super Bowl!
Now let’s get to the breakdown!
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Vettori (-220) 8.6k vs Akmedov (+180) 7.6k
Right off the bat this is a GPP fight only for me. Both fighters have shown to gas in previous fights.
Vettori is an aggressive fighter that is a decent striker. Akhmedov is decent overall. He is a good grappler with decent takedowns. Basically, we have a striker vs. grappler match up. I will have some shares of both. Akhmedov is my preferred play because of salary savings.
Nicolau (-235) 8.9k vs Smolka (+195) 7.3k
Nicolau is a solid boxer. He also has a black belt in BJJ and has good takedown defense (another thing worth noting he has been training with Damien Maia). Smolka is decent overall. He is a decent wrestler. He is also tough overall, which makes him difficult to finish. He is coming into this on a 3 fight losing streak. I really like Nicolau in all formats. I think he has a solid floor with good upside. Plus I am not sure he will even be popular. He is coming off of a suspension. So the general public hasn’t really heard of him. I think Smolka is worth a shot if you are building multiple lineups. I personally will be heavier on Nicolau.
Jury (-200) 8.8k vs Glenn (+170) 7.4k
This is a solid fight to have exposure to in tournaments. The jury is solid working out of the clinch and has good takedowns. Glenn is tough. He is a solid striker with decent elbows. I am not sure how popular either of these 2 will be. The jury is stuck in between Elliott and Diakese. Who I think will be higher owned then him. Glenn might be somewhat popular at his price but, I do think you should have some exposure to him. Overall it’s a GPP fight and 1 I want exposure to on both sides.
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Diakiese (-190) 8.7k vs Hooker (+165) 7.5k
Diakiese is an athletic fighter. He is a good striker that also has good power. He also has good speed and decent takedowns. Hooker is a tough fighter who is solid overall. Diakiese is playable in all formats. It just depends on how you are constructing your lineups. There are several fighters at his price tag and above I want exposure to it just depends on who I can afford. Hooker is worth a shot if you are making more then 10-12 lineups.
Rountree (-325) 9.4k vs Oleksiejczuk (+265) 6.8k
Rountree is a good striker with solid power. He also has good leg kicks. He has been taken down in previous fights. Oleksiejczuk is tough overall. He isn’t the greatest striker but, he isn’t the worst either. I think Rountree is worth some shots in tournaments. I just don’t want to be too heavy on him. He is the most expensive fight. Which means he will need an early stoppage to reach value. I am not interested in Oleksiejczuk much at all.
Elliott (-220) 9k vs Rosa (+180) 7.2k
Elliott is a good wrestler with solid takedowns. He has a massive ceiling but a super low floor. He has scored over 170+ DraftKings points and as low as 1. Rosa is a good boxer that likes to throw in combinations. He also has a solid jab. He is a decent wrestler and has a black belt in BJJ. I think this is a fight you will need a decent amount of exposure to in tournaments. I don’t mind Rosa as a punt in cash or GPP’s. I will probably lean heavier on Rosa for the salary but, be sure you get some exposure to Elliott as well.
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Condit (-160) 8.5k vs Magny (+140) 7.7k
Condit is solid overall. He is hittable. Another thing worth noting is he is coming out of retirement for this fight. Magny has a good jab and solid leg kicks. He also has decent takedowns (defiantly worth paying attention to since Condit has a 30% takedown defense). For this reason, Magny is in play as a punt in all formats. I haven’t decided how much exposure if any I want with Condit.
Calvillo (-250) 9.2k vs Esparza (+210) 7k
Calvillo is an ok striker with decent leg kicks. She has a very good submission game. Esparza is a decent striker with decent wrestling. This is a fight that is definitely fadable altogether if you are only building 3-5 lineups. I don’t mind using Esparza in cash. She has a safe floor overall. Calvillo is someone you could use to pivot off of Cyborg. She definitely won’t be as popular. Just don’t go crazy with exposure to her.
Nurmagomedov (-280) 9.1k vs Barboza (+240) 7.1k
Nurmagomedov is a very good wrestler. He has a very heavy top game with good ground and pound. Barboza is a solid striker with good leg kicks. Nurmagomedov is playable in all formats. If he gets his takedowns and wrestling going he has big upside. Barboza is worth a shot in large field GPP’s. He is a punt that if he wins would give you a big advantage over everyone on Nurmagomedov.
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Cyborg (-340) 9.3k vs Holm (+310) 6.9k
If you have read my articles in the past, this will sound familiar. This is the main event and I don’t mind stacking this cash games. It’s not a must like some weeks but it is an option I am currently leaning towards.
Cyborg is a good striker with good power. She is very aggressive and is solid on the ground. Holm is a former boxer. She is a solid striker with good leg kicks. She also has good cardio and is no stranger to 5 round fights. Both make good tournament plays. In a win, either fighter should hit value. It just depends on how much risk you want to take in this fight. If you want my take on that, come join me in Slack and find out.
Once again Happy Holidays! Good luck everyone, don’t forget to check out the MMA Research Station to help you build your lineups, and follow me on Twitter!
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