Before we get started we need to give huge congratulations to DFS Army Member “kanger”, for taking fourth in the DraftKings Milly Maker. This is our fourth member in the last 40-days to win over $50,000! We have had a $53,000 winner in NBA, a $150,000 winner in NFL, a $100,000 win in NBA, and this $50,000 win in Week 12 of the NFL season. The DFS Army helmets are up and down the standings across all DFS platforms and our membership is closing in on 2,000 because of it. We have enormous momentum, no doubt about it.
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NBA DFS is a different kind of beast. Studs can outright win you a GPP with a massive performance and value plays can be brought to light just minutes before contest lock time due to late scratches or breaking news. It isn’t for the faint of heart and the most dedicated researchers and news followers will have a significant edge over the field. This column will be loaded with valuable research, metrics, and analysis on how to use this information in your contests.
On this massive slate filled with incredible options at every position, we are going to have to plant our flag somewhere or else we will end up with 100 different lineups and try to cover every possible combination possible. While MME is an option for many of our members, this article will be directed towards those that are going to make only a handful of lineups and run a few locked players through our optimizer (Domination Station) which keeps churning out ENORMOUS winners.
Let’s get to work!
Situations to monitor for Monday:
The Warriors – Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green are all questionable for Monday’s game. Andre Iguodala is already doubtful which clears up 20-25 minutes on the bench as well. If they are all out, then significant value would be available up and down their roster. Klay Thompson would be the instant cash game lock and likely would carry 80% ownership in anything that wasn’t a GPP.
Nick Young, Jordan Bell, Omri Casspi, Zaza Pachulia, and Shaun Livingston could all provide phenomenal value with significant minute increases for the game. Good thing you have 19 staff members and four full-time NBA content providers to help you pivot and discuss strategy to properly attack cash and GPP if this scenario plays out.
Victor Oladipo – He’s questionable on Monday after missing the last game for the Pacers. Indiana is currently 4.0 point favorites at home in a tasty matchup against the Orlando Magic. If he were to miss this game, Thaddeus Young and Lance Stephenson would pick up significant value and be excellent cash game options.
The New York Knicks – Kristaps Porzingis and Enes Kanter are both questionable for Monday’s game against the Portland Trailblazers. If they were to miss, Tim Hardaway Jr. would be a cash game lock as he’d likely take 25 shots and carry the offensive load. Michael Beasley and Kyle O’Quinn would be fantastic cash game plays as well with their boost in minutes and entrance into the starting lineup. Even Courtney Lee would pick up a bit of value as he’d be locked into heavy minutes at the wing.
Wes Matthews – He is questionable for Monday’s game with the San Antonio Spurs, and although he’s nothing special fantasy-wise, he has been playing nearly 35 minutes per game over the past five games. That would be a significant amount of time opened up for the Mavericks rotation. Dennis Smith likely would see an uptick of minutes at point guard with J.J. Barea seeing a few more minutes at shooting guard.
Ben Simmons – If he’s out, go ahead and lock in T.J. McConnell on every site because he’ll be owned just as highly as Klay Thompson in cash games (if the Warriors studs are all rested). Their ownership will be so high in cash that it will be impossible to win if you don’t have them and they blow up. A similar example would be Julio Jones this past Week 12 of NFL.
I won’t mention the guys I listed above in the breakdown today. I will break those down in our members only Slack chat as news breaks throughout the day and afternoon.
I cannot imagine playing a slate like this without researching and discussing with like-minded individuals and a handful of researchers working hard behind the scenes.
Because of how ridiculous this slate is turning out to be because of all the injury news. Today’s article will be similar to the “notes” article I published during the baseball season where I list out a ton of stats worth knowing to allow you to pivot quickly with late-breaking news if you’re not able to get the expert analysis in Slack.
Guards
Kyrie Irving – He has a 29.2% usage rate and is averaging 38.0 FP/Game. His 1.20 FP/Min is the third highest at the point guard position. If Marcus Morris and Jaylen Brown are out he will see a minor uptick in usage rate and the offense will flow through him just a bit more.
Damian Lillard – It should be a competitive game with the Knicks no matter who is healthy for New York. Lillard has a 29.8% usage rate (the highest at the PG position) and is averaging 36.1 Min/game. The Knicks are one of the worst teams in the league against opposing PGs.
Chris Paul – Even with a minutes cap his matchup against the Nets couldn’t be any better for his skill set. He’s averaging 1.51 FP/Min and 26.4 Min/Game. That exact average would turn give him around 40 fantasy points for this game. If we take the pace of the game into consideration and the likely increase in steals and assists, I think Paul could have 45-55 point upside depending on if the Nets can stay competitive. He is a great GPP play today no matter what other news comes out about the other teams.
Elfrid Payton – He’s so boom or bust it’s not even funny. He’ll always be a fantastic GPP option and Monday is no different. Against the Pacers, the Magic will be in a nice pace up game that should feature quite a bit of scoring. Payton is averaging .99 FP/Min and makes for one of the best GPP options on the entire slate. Just be ready for him to sink your lineup if he doesn’t play well. He’s an ulcer waiting to happen.
Patty Mills – He’s been boom or bust all season, just like Payton. However, he’s much cheaper and won’t sink your team when he has a bad game. He has shown 35’sh point upside, depending on whether you’re looking at FanDuel or DraftKings. He’s averaging a weak and feeble 18.3% usage rate which caps his upside from night to night.
Spencer Dinwiddie – He’s really burst onto the scene this season ever since D’Angelo Russell fell apart at the seems. Dinwiddie has seen enormous price increases on both FD and DK, however, he’s a great GPP option if you game stack the Rockets and Nets game in the hopes that it stays close. His 1.06 FP/Min average is superb if he pushes 36-minutes in a close and competitive game.
James Harden – His usage rate is 34.5% and he’s averaging 1.46 FP/Min. If the Warriors stars are ruled out then Harden will be owned at a ridiculous level in both cash and GPPs as he’ll be the best remaining option available and everyone will be flush with cash. His 1.46 FP/Min average should spike considerably against the fast-paced Nets and as long as the game stays close, just like Chris Paul and Spencer Dinwiddie, he has an elite ceiling.
Buddy Hield – He continues to perform well when his minutes are increased. Last game he took 18 shots, which was the most he’s taken all season. The Kings might keep this game competitive today if the Warriors have their B-Squad running around the court. Hield is priced well on both FD and DK and has elite upside if this is an up and down game between a bunch of backup level talents.
We recently had a $53,333 NBA win by a DFS Member on FanDuel for NBA. If you’d like to read about this AMAZING win and a few other five and six-figure wins, go ahead and click this link and enjoy!
Forwards
LeBron James – I don’t care about the news today when it comes to LBJ. He’s a lock for me either way. I told our members to lock him into our optimizer against Charlotte on Friday and he turned in a 70-plus fantasy point performance. He has the highest floor and ceiling combination and with the value available on Monday’s slate, he’s a mortal lock either way. In what should be a competitive game, James should near 65-plus points as he carries the team again.
Kyle Anderson – For whatever reason, his price never rises on FD and DK. He’s scored 30-plus in four out of his last eight games and continues to be an excellent cash and GPP option.
Dirk Nowitzki – He’s scored 30-plus in four out of his last six games and remains a nice budget saver at a weak position.
Zach Randolph – If Draymond Green is out, ZBO will be a handful for Jordan Bell to cover. With a 23.6% usage rate and a .99 FP/Min average, his mid-5k price tag is a bargain in this matchup, sans Draymond.
Blake Griffin – His 27.9% usage rate is the highest at the Power Forward position (barring Kristaps Porzingis being active) and the matchup against the Lakers is superb. It’s a pace-up game and Griffin should dominate his individual matchup. He’s pricey but has 55-point upside on both FD and DK.
We broke down the $150,000 NFL win earlier this season. You can read about that gem in this link!
Centers
I am going to break down the centers for our members only in some “pre-game” notes, similar to what the other main coaches do in Slack for our members. I think this slate is so phenomenal for bankroll building that I don’t want to give out too much here. Sorry! I will leave you with one play at the position.
Clint Capela – He’s the perfect ladder system center for both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight. If you are unsure of what the ladder system is, it’s the investment strategy the DFS Army preaches to its members on how to have the greatest ROI possible. I can’t get into what it is, but it’s largely why we have such a high retention rate for membership, as the majority of our members are able to pay off their monthly dues by having just ONE winning night. Bankroll management and the ladder system combined are the keys to success, but one does not work without the other.
I have already said too much and that type of analysis and strategy will be kept to our Slack channel (41,000 WEEKLY messages between the 1,500 members and 19 staff that we have logged into Slack).
I am so excited to be providing content for the NBA season and I will see you all in Slack chat #dailydonuts #nfl-talk and #nba-talk. You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I post my daily articles and love to interact with my followers.
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