*Reminder this is a focus on Head to Head matchups only. 3m, 6m, 10m, and Dream Team have a different set of strategies.
For this series, we’ll be comparing the top options that we had going into the Sun-Mon slates vs. reality, how it affected our strategies in the previous week, and what it’ll change going forward.
QB: Our top options last week if you were in slack at all for DFS purposes was Tom Brady and Russell Wilson. Aaron Rodgers wasn’t available since the Packers played a Thursday night game and honestly with 5 starters out, it would have been a gamble to play him regardless.
Actual Scores
When looking at this in hindsight, the obvious thought is “UW, why wasn’t Watson, Newton, Dalton, etc even in consideration? They clearly had better weeks.” In PlayDraft, just as in cash on any other DFS site, floor, consistency, and upside are paramount factors, in that order. Watson, Newton, and everyone else on this list (except Rodgers) was an outlier towards GPP considerations. They just didn’t check the boxes this week. Out of the 16 H2H matches I played at $3, only 6 out of 32 possible times was someone other than Brady/Wilson was picked. 5 of those times was Drew Brees and the other was Alex Smith.
RB: With two picks and grabbing them anywhere between the first and 10th pick, there was more than the top four options available to you. Our top picks were obvious in our slack chat for cash. Where you had difficulties fitting in the Bells of the world, play draft was a whole different ballgame. You couldn’t go wrong with Hunt or Elliot as your first grab, followed by Gurley and Cook. Bell wasn’t in the best spot and has been hit or miss this year, but always viable to grab. Freeman, in my opinion, is never a PlayDraft play with the volatility that comes with Atlanta’s offense.
In the end, you can’t predict injuries and there were a lot of them. When looking at the list above and their actual points, Howard, McCoy, Anderson, and maybe Fournette (if you’re a true blooded SEC fan) were viable options. Very few picks were made outside of these tops. Outside of these mentions, Gordon was the only other RB picked within the 64 pick options.
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WR: With touchdowns and 100+ YRD games coming at a premium this year, WR has become a scarce commodity on Play Draft. Considering you’re targeting the top 5-6 players on the slate only since there are no salary requirements, value receivers that do well for you on other DFS sites aren’t even a consideration. AJ Green was the chalk of the chalk in slack chat this week and easily the first grab made by everyone in H2H when they went to receivers. In my opinion, Hopkins was next, but he rarely went before OBJ, Julio, or Brown. All three you generally can’t go wrong with week in and week out.
Except for this week where all three bombed to new all-time lows. Outside of these highlighted guys that were premium targets, Thomas and Cooks were the only ones that saw action in H2H and that action was by me trying to hedge my player pool as nearly all my lineups started to look the same.
TE: Since this takes a WR slot, I never advocate taking one in this type of game. It’s just bad news. People tend to reach of Gronk, however, in my opinion, the Patriot offense is too volatile to consider picking him up, especially if it’s likely you’re going to grab Brady in a draft.
Zero TEs were taken outside of Gronk in my H2H match ups. In fact, the only time one was taken, it was in a 6 man snake draft where the guy took Brady and Hogan already. He took last, by nearly triple the points.
Strategy moving forward
Looking across the industry, you can find great pieces of information that tie into this format well. As example. There are significantly less 100+ YD & TD games by WR so far this season by nearly half as compared to last year and years before it. It could mean we’re in for a regression to more receiving touchdowns or it could mean we’re into a heavier run format. Week 5 brings about a different kind of volatility to think about this year: Most bell cow RB have been destroyed physically. Considering the highest average points are coming from RB (because you get two of them vs. 1 QB), it makes more sense to draft RB higher up than usual. Picks are going to be funnel. Pre-Draft rankings set up by PlayDraft have RB significantly higher valued than WR. This is important to remember because you’re average Joe doesn’t subscribe to DFS Army and picks players based on their rankings. So get your premium RB early!
QB is still a late round draft. There are three solid options clustered near each other for this slate.
WR is deflated this week and flat amongst picks. Will Browns temper tantrum result in more targets? Will OBJ get into the end zone? Will MN have a QB to throw to Diggs? Tough to say. There are a few clear winners to grab, but I would still make sure you lock up a RB first and if the top gun is available, that WR second. I’m not opposed to grabbing 2 RB locking yourself out of the category this week giving your opponent a false edge.
Exact picks and strategies will be coming out later this week for VIPs only and as always, I’m available in slack to talk PlayDraft specific picks and strategies outside of H2H.
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