MLB DFS ‘Chop’s Chin Music’ Winning Lineups Strategy 6-29

So, what are you waiting for?  Click that blue link above and unlock our coaching, content, tools, and Slack Chat forums where players just like you talk daily in real time.  I’m @ChoppoDong there, and am also on Twitter under the same name.  Give me a follow!

At the end of this article is a link to a new challenge I’m starting this week.  Follow along by giving it a read!

Quick Glance

Quick refresh on the columns.  Wx is your weather forecast for the day on a safety scale of 1-10, with 0 being played in a dome.  Vegas P helps determine the odds your pitcher will get the win.  Green is good.  Vegas B is the run total of the game for hitters.  Again, green is good.

For an even better look at the weather, give @dfsmlbweather a follow!  He has quickly become a friend and our in-house meteorologist when it comes to DFS MLB advice.  I have personally seen him say not to worry about three games this year where others around the industry were calling the game too risky.  When it comes to baseball, you don’t want a weather guy that lives in fear of making mistakes (like most of my local tv guys).  Also, find his page on site at DFS MLB Weather.

MLB Pitchers for Winning DFS Lineups

The first thing we look for is a solid pitcher with upside.  I use Vegas odds and KScore to point me in the right direction.  I tie-break with price.  If there are two similar pitchers in Vegas and KScore, I will opt for the cheaper one.  The win is important, but not like it used to be before Fanduel broke up those points into quality starts and the win.  Now, on all sites, strikeouts reign supreme in DFS MLB!

Why the hell is Clayton Kershaw 5th on this list?  I’m scratching my own head here, but these are who I like better and why.

JA Happ (TOR) – The first thing I do is write down the pitchers in good spots.  The second thing I do is try to put them in order.  JA Happ topped the list, and looking at the graphic, it should stand out why.  Leading out of Vegas, KScore over 500, and a very reasonable price tag.  His matchup rings a lot of bells.  BAL has been struggling this season and make a fine target to pick on.  However, the have put up some explosive games, so this Happ call isn’t without some risk.  We are looking for 40+ points here, not 70.  So, let’s keep our expectations where they need to be.

Luis Cessa (NYY) – This one surprised me.  I felt Happ led the way by a wide margin and the rest were sort of a crapshoot (yes, Kershaw included due to price).  So, I crossed Happ off my list and asked myself who I would take first off the remaining players.  Cessa has solid Vegas numbers, a solid KScore, I’m not afraid of the White Sox, and his price is awesome for being favored and nearing the 500 mark in the KScore column.  It’s close with Archer, but I took the $3000 discount.

Chris Archer (TBR) – Usually when you get to the more expensive pitchers, you find some safety.  I just don’t think that old adage is necessarily true as it once was.  Those cheaper pitchers are just in better spots to test their ceilings.  That said, our first “expensive” pitcher is Chris Archer.  We all know what he can do.  What bothered me was the fact PIT only strikes out about 18% of the time, they put the ball in play, Vegas isn’t loving the matchup, and the price I have to pay for mediocrity.  Truth be told, Archer jumped off the page at me first today, but digging in a little and writing all these names down pushed him down to 3rd on my list.  I know….I’m shocked myself.

Dinelson Lamet (SDP) – Now, before you think I’ve lost it by taking him over Kershaw, it is strictly a pricing play.  Kershaw could actually rank 2nd or 3rd on my list.  I just know the freedom to stack and grab hot streaking bats with pitchers in the 8k range.  This price point usually gets you a decent pitcher.  It’s not like I’m choosing a $6000 pitcher over Kershaw and hoping my pitcher when to Subway this morning, too.

Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – Dude, seriously……it’s a price thing.  Bats are important in DFS and long gone are the days where your opponent will roster complete shit against you.  The Kershaw edge/safety just isn’t what it used to be.  Neither are his numbers this year.  It’s not that they are bad, but he is far from “unhittable.”  He doesn’t give up much, but it’s enough for him to struggle to reach 65 points like you need on a nightly basis to pay off his salary.  I will say this much, he has been in the perfect lineup7 times this year.  But, I will also say he has hit 65 points……..never.  He hit 64 @MIL on June 2nd and that’s it.  This is 16 starts now.  Oh, for good measure, we have a 24, 28, and a freaking 19 in there.  If you told me in April that Kershaw would have 3 times the duds as 5X value starts, I’d have revoked the beer I bought you and drank it myself.  But, it’s halfway through the season and here we are.

David Price (BOS) – Just don’t.  I know he has a -185 out of Vegas, but just don’t.  For 9k it’s dumb.  4.91 SIERA and nearly matching it with his 4.76 ERA, only a 19% K rate, 10% swinging strike, 10% walk rate, and a 17.5 HR/FB….those are mediocre if I’m being optimistic.  In contrast, Jaime Garcia (whom I doubt you roster often) is $7700 and has a 4.68 SIERA with a 4.03 ERA to go with a 27% hard contact rate.  He’s better.  Oh for comparison, Price’s hard contact rate?  32%!!  Like I said…..just don’t.

Soft Pitching to Attack

Next, we start looking to bats.  We start the process by finding the softer pitching.  Perhaps the best, and fastest, way to accomplish this is to look at the last couple years MLB SIERA numbers.  If you don’t know what SIERA is, ask in our VIP Slack Chat rooms.  Someone will answer it quickly for you.  I look for those running over 5.00 and then over 4.50.  I write them down on paper so I can see them in one list.  NOTE:  Opponents will now be in parentheses.

Over 4.50 SIERA – Bailey (MIL), Gibson (@BOS), Urena (NYM), Shields (NYY), Lugo (@MIA), Jimenez (@TOR), Price (MIN), Garcia (@SDP)…..yes, Price is on this list instead of my other pitcher’s list!

Implied Run Totals for DFS MLB Bats

Your next step is to look to Vegas to guide you in your quest for the best bats.  Implied run totals are not a great indicator of an actual score.  They are, however, a nice indicator of bad pitching, ballpark factors, and general good spots for our hitters.  I list them in order as I find them, crosscheck with where the pitcher shows weakness (handedness of bats), and then give you the best players (in CAPS) followed by the still playable players (lowercase).  If not on this list, you rarely find them in my MLB lineups.  Good BvP matchups will be in italics.

TOR both – BAUTISTA, tulo, martin, carrera, morales, pillar

BOS both – LEON, MORELAND, YOUNG, HANLEY, benintendi, betts

NYY both – JUDGE, HEADLEY, sanchez, holliday

MIL both – SHAW, BROXTON, ARCIA, BRAUN, pina, sogard

For more players, and a little breakdown of which I’m building around, you just need to become a VIP.  Yes, membership has it’s privileges.  Click here to become a member –> ChoppoDong sent me!

#DongCall!!

DongCall is dead until someone says who the last one was on Twitter.  I find it funny I put in a retired player hitting a famous homerun and not one single person played “policeman” on Twitter to call it out.  Makes me wonder who reads this far down.  Consider #DongCall “benched” until further notice.

I received some outcry from our VIPs in the Army about DongCall yesterday.  But, this article is for you, John Q Public.  I will put some DongCalls in our Slack forums for our VIPs.  If you want the DongCall back, you can cry out for it…….or become a VIP.  The choice is yours AND the links are scattered all over the article for you.  Pick one.  Any one will do.  ?

#DongCall will return after my vacation July 8th or 9th.