I’m back with another complete look at the Fantasy Football 2016 Rankings Draft. You all know me as a Daily Fantasy Football guy but I found my passion for fantasy football in season long leagues. For this column, I’m going to go over some general strategies for your season long snake draft, identify some value plays, sleepers, and some potentially controversial high-level players to avoid. Additionally, I will share my current Fantasy Football notes including projections and a bunch of really sweet stats that will help you navigate your fantasy draft and dominate your competition.
BASIC FANTASY DRAFT STRATEGY
I approach season long fantasy football in a similar fashion to how I approach daily fantasy football. It’s all about identifying value. In daily fantasy football, we find value based on the player salaries set by the various DFS sites. Season long leagues are trickier but generally, we look for value as a function of ADP or average draft position. To get an edge on the competition, we need to find the players that the “crowd” is wrong about both to the upside and to the downside. In addition, we need to understand player tiers and which positions to target with our draft picks and when.
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OVERVALUED PLAYERS I’M AVOIDING
Todd Gurley (ADP 5.39) – I just don’t see the Rams scoring a ton of points this season. As much as I love Gurley’s talent, I can’t justify a top five pick on an RB in a tough defensive division, on a team that doesn’t score much that should be playing from behind a ton.
A.J Green (ADP 7.6) – Notice the drop off between Hopkins and Green (on our fantasy draft sheet below) – 25 Pts. Green represents the start of the second tier of WR’s. This is a large group that includes names like A-Rob, Dez, Keenan Allen, Jordy Nelson, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey etc. Most of those guys are available in round two of the draft, so I can’t see using a top 5-6 pick on a guy that projects similar to second round players. I’ll pass here and grab a stud RB like David Johnson.
Brandin Cooks (ADP 22.5) – I’m not on the Cooks bandwagon this season. As I read most of the pundits, the idea is that with Colston gone there won’t be much competition for targets in New Orleans which should lead to a Cooks breakout. I don’t see it. Willie Snead is still there and by all reports, is looking great in camp. In addition, the Saints added a dynamic pass catching TE in Coby Fleenor as well as a 2nd round rookie WR. The Saints offense is all about spreading the targets around and I don’t see Cooks getting the volume of targets to justify his overinflated ADP.
Demaryius Thomas (ADP 28) – The Denver QB situation is a complete mess. These guys will win on running game and defense. Thomas is overvalued based on reputation alone. That plus Sanchez is one of the worst screen QB’s I’ve seen and DT’s bread and butter is the screen pass. This is a recipe for disappointment.
Dez Bryant (ADP 10.7) – I really love Dez because he is a stud with an elite combination of hands, speed, body control and passion for the game. He has very little competition for targets on a Dallas offense that finds itself lacking in dynamic pass catchers. That said, Romo is an injury waiting to happen. Dez is going in the first round of fantasy drafts and Dallas lacks a serviceable backup QB. This is way too much risk to take on considering there are a plethora of similarly projected WR’s in the second round that doesn’t come with the high likelihood that their QB will get hurt rendering them useless.
UNDERVALUED PLAYERS TO TARGET
Lamar Miller (ADP 13) – Miller is stepping into a spectacular situation in Houston. The Texans are a high volume running attack with virtually no competition for touches at the RB position. I like that they have Hopkins, a player that requires constant double-teaming, there because it will prevent defenses from loading up the box to stop Miller. This is a situation to target in your draft and I believe that Miller has #1 overall RB potential this season with a very high floor.
LeVeon Bell (ADP 13) – According to the latest ADP numbers, Bell has dropped into the second round of drafts. I’ll gladly take him in the late 1st round and ride out the four-game suspension. When he plays, Bell is the #1 overall fantasy RB and possibly the #1 overall player.
Doug Baldwin (ADP 47.5) – People still don’t believe in Baldwin. Let’s take advantage of their incorrect assessment. The Seahawks are continuing to shift from a Defense/Run based team to a high-powered passing attack. Baldwin broke out last season and I expect that trend to continue. The crowd is drafting Baldwin as a mid-level WR3 even though he projects has high-end WR2.
Eric Decker (ADP 52.5) – According to our charts, Decker is going off the board as a low-end WR3. However, Decker was one of the most consistent scorers on a week to week basis in 2015 and put up high-end WR2 numbers. Decker was a touchdown machine in 2015 and one of the most targeted red zone receivers in the league. He makes for a fantastic value at his 52 ADP.
Delanie Walker (ADP 74) – In 2015 Walker put up stud numbers on a weekly basis. Mariotta loves him and looks to him as his primary passing game weapon. Walker saw 25% of the targets from Mariotta in 2015. Those are monster numbers for a TE. In addition, this guy is one of the reasons I’m comfortable passing on Gronk in the 1st round.
SLEEPER PICKS
There’s nothing better than hitting on one of your sleeper plays. These are guys that you grab in the last few rounds of the draft. Hopefully one or two of them will become starters for your squad. I’m looking for upside and depth with these picks.
Mohamed Sanu (ADP 138) – Last season I was all over Leonard Hankerson in the pre-season. Mr. Hanky had all the opportunity he could handle in the Atlanta offense but failed to deliver due to an extreme lack of talent. Sanu is a more talented WR that performed nicely for the Bengals when thrust into a featured role due to an AJ Green injury. Now Sanu finds himself in an ideal situation. Opposing teams will key in on Jones and Freeman leaving Sanu facing single coverage most of the time. Roddy White used to put up monster numbers opposite Jones in this offense. Sanu is a high floor, high ceiling type player that is ideal for depth. I believe he has WR4 floor with WR2 upside.
Chris Hogan (ADP 155) – As I write this, word out of the Patriots came just hit the wire that Edelman injured his ankle and was taken off the field. It’s a reminder that Edelman is a somewhat fragile player. Even if Edelman doesn’t get hurt, Hogan is set to start at outside wide receiver for the Patriots high-flying offense. I love situations like this for fantasy draft purposes. A couple of seasons ago, Brandon Lafell produced WR3 numbers in that position and LaFell sucks. Hogan is legitimately a better player. His ceiling in this offense is high. You can get him in the last few rounds of your fantasy draft.
Kamar Aiken (ADP 116) – Question. Who is catching passes for the Ravens this season? Steve Smith? He’s coming off a double ruptured Achilles, one of the nastiest injuries possible. I wouldn’t count on him. Perriman? Please, that guy is young but even more injury prone than the ancient Steve Smith. The reality is that Aiken is the #1 WR for the Ravens this season. Flacco is back and healthy. He can sling the rock with the best of them. Aiken is going off fantasy draft boards with a 110 ADP. You can get him in the 9th or 10th round of your fantasy draft! Depth players like Aiken are often the difference makers, particularly when you are hit by injuries or bye week blues. Don’t hesitate to add this guy to your fantasy bench.
Justin Forsett (ADP 100) – Sticking with the Baltimore theme, Forsett has an ADP around 100 in PPR drafts. This guy has low-end RB2/RB3 flex appeal in PPR leagues and is being drafted as an RB4/RB5 right now. The buzz out of Ravens camp has been very positive on Forsett. However, people are down on him coming off an injury-marred season. In DFS we know that sometimes recency bias can work heavily in our favor. I always look to exploit these types of situations in my fantasy drafts and you should too.
THE RANKINGS
**Note** These rankings and ADP’s are based on a full 1 Point PPR format
So let’s get right into it. The following are my complete player rankings for the 2016 Fantasy Season. These were updated on August 7th.
To
VOR – Value over replacement. This represents the difference between that player’s projection and the projection for fantasy starting players of that same position. It basically measures a players studliness compared to other starting fantasy players.
Points – Total points projection for the player
ECR – Expert Consensus Ranking – Using a wisdom of the crowd approach
ADP – (Average Draft Position) – This sheet is sorted by ADP as opposed to my personal player rankings. We are all about identifying value vs the opinion of the crowd.
ADP Diff – Difference between ADP and ECR – a value indicator
Position Rank – Ranking by position – Based on ECR
Dropoff – Dropoff in points to the next player in the same position. This measures the studliness factor and identifies player tiers.
Key – Overvalued players (based on their ADP) are highlighted in red. Undervalued players (based on their ADP) are highlighted in green. Players in bold are my go to guys that I may consider reaching for a bit earlier than consensus.
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