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—NBA Daily Fantasy Breakdown – Friday, November 18th—
Phoenix Suns @ Indiana Pacers (-8, ML: -330) – O/U: 219
————Pace: PHX- 1st / IND- 10th
OFF Efficiency: PHX- 21st / IND- 18th
DEF Efficiency: PHX- 26th / IND- 13th
Line Analysis:
The Pacers seem to be getting their act together, winning two straight games. They face a defensively-inept Suns team and it’d be a great idea to attack them, but the Pacers come at you with a balanced attack. This usually makes it difficult to nail down where the production will come. On a side note (which, combined with the high pace, probably led to such a high total), the Pacers give up fourth-most points from behind the three-point line while the Suns have given up the seventh-most.
PHX:
Last game it was Brandon Knight that popped off and led the Suns in scoring. Much to the chagrin of everyone, Eric Bledsoe did nothing against the Nuggets who give up the most fantasy points per game to point guards. Also in that last game against the Nuggets, TJ Warren was benched for the final 17 minutes and Devin Booker was ejected in the final minutes.
Tyson Chandler (personal reasons) has been ruled out for tonight, so Alex Len is in line for a big night of production. It’s interesting to note that the Suns are scoring a league-high number of points per game inside the paint, while the Pacers have given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the center position this season.
IND:
I’m enamored by the basketball player Paul George in this spot, but I’m not in love with his price. However, there are a lot of different value options on the board and it might not even be an issue. The Suns are brutal everywhere on defense, especially against guards and small forwards.
You can pick and choose with guys like Monta Ellis, Jeff Teague or CJ Miles. All three are in a great spot, but you’re crazy if you think you know who’s going to be the most productive. Thad Young could work in this spot too, with the up-tempo style of play; he’s getting the minutes, but the volume of work isn’t adding up.
Atlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Hornets (-2.5, ML: -140) – O/U: 206.5
————Pace: ATL- 5th / CHA- 13th
OFF Efficiency: ATL- 12th / CHA- 11th
DEF Efficiency: ATL- 2nd / CHA- 3rd
Line Analysis:
Both teams have elevated their pace to start the season, and that should work out lovely for this matchup. Nothing sticks out to me in the spread or total, but I do think we’ll see a close game.
ATL:
I love to attack the Hornets with opposing teams’ power forwards and Paul Millsap should easily flourish in this matchup. Dwight Howard will be back for tonight’s game and that will probably scare people off Millsap, but in the words of Bone Crusher, “I ain’t never scared.” Howard has a tough matchup on paper, and thankfully that’s not where the games are played. Charlotte is giving up the fifth-fewest points per game inside the paint but Howard has shown a massive resurgence this season so I wouldn’t be worried to put him up against anyone.
Charlotte is giving up the third-most points from behind the arc this season; this is probably due to their stellar defense down low. Whatever the case is, Kyle Korver could be an interesting play given this revelation.
CHA:
Kemba Walker is tearing up opposing teams whether he’s playing in Charlotte, Minnesota or Indonesia. Typically, Kemba has been a massive home/road splits guy and tonight we get him in his safe haven. With the Hawks running such a high tempo, this is a dream matchup for him. Kemba’s posted totals of 53, 31.4, 60, 42 and 46.4 FDP in his last five games- that would pay off value on his salary.
Nicolas Batum is in a decent spot for this game and should go low-owned. Marvin Williams is a stretch four, meaning he plays out on the perimeter and opens a lot of opportunities for his teammates; this is exactly the type of player Millsap has had trouble defending this season.
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-10, ML: -505) – O/U: 205
————Pace: DET- 23rd / CLE- 11th
OFF Efficiency: DET- 22nd / CLE- 5th
DEF Efficiency: DET- 5th / CLE- 12th
Line Analysis:
The Pistons played the Cavs very well last season, winning three of the four meetings in the regular season (the last win was without the Cavs big trio.) – Maybe they shouldn’t have been so good because the Cavs then went ahead and swept them in their first-round playoff series. The Pistons did hang tough with the Cavs, but it’s all about results.
DET:
I’m not particularly thrilled about many of these matchups for the Pistons, but I don’t mind Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on a regular basis. All the guy does is take the court and crush his price, which still isn’t above $5K on FanDuel. Excellent decision. Tobias Harris has exceeded the 5x value in his last three games, so he may be worth a look.
CLE:
Kyrie Irving is probably the best option for the Cavs tonight, due to his matchup with Ish Smith. You may get him at a discounted ownership level since there will be plenty folks still butthurt that he didn’t get them that illustrious fitty-burger the other night. I ain’t mad at ya, Kyrie.
LeBron James and Kevin Love are solid options just about every night, so why would this be any different? I’ve spoken on the fact many of times, but these close games are where you want to roll out the big guns from Cleveland- the more minutes they’re on the court, the more they are going to produce. Duh. I also don’t mind Tristan Thompson since opposing centers have had great success against Andre Drummond.
Brooklyn Nets @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-9.5, ML: -550) – O/U: 219
————Pace: BKN- 2nd / OKC- 7th
OFF Efficiency: BKN- 19th / OKC- 25th
DEF Efficiency: BKN- 18th / OKC- 5th
Line Analysis:
I’m not sure that Brooklyn has any chance in hell tonight, but if there is any hope then maybe it’s the fact that they’re not a double-digit underdog and less than four figures on the money line? No, I didn’t buy it either.
BKN:
Trevor Booker is my favorite play from the Nets tonight. Whoever OKC throws at him is in for a rough night. I mentioned it last week when the Nets took on the Suns in an up-tempo matchup…this is the kind of matchup that was tailor-made for Booker. The price is right too.
My co-host on the DFS Army Daily Dispatch and life-long OKC Thunder fan, Keith Hall, thinks Brook Lopez could be in for a big night. I worry about him (Brook, not Keith) from time-to-time, but the thing that takes me off him on FanDuel is the fact that his price went above the $7K mark again. No thanks. On DraftKings he is more acceptable with a $6500 price tag.
OKC:
It’s going to be awfully tough to fade Russell Westbrook tonight. The Nets run the second-fastest pace in the NBA and their rank of 18th in defensive efficiency is more generous than what is shown. I don’t see any way in hell that Westbrook gets less than 50 points, blowout or not, because the Nets have literally no one that can stay in front of him.
Victor Oladipo is coming off the best game of his brief OKC career and he should be able to have another big game tonight. Steven Adams and Enes Kanter should also be able to feast down low on the Nets weak interior defense.
Golden State Warriors (-7, ML: -265) @ Boston Celtics – O/U: 226
————-Pace: GS- 3rd / BOS- 14th
OFF Efficiency: GS- 1st / BOS- 8th
DEF Efficiency: GS- 23rd / BOS- 17th
Line Analysis:
When these two get together it’s usually a fantastic game, and now that the Celtics defense has taken a step back we should see even more fireworks. The 226 total at the open is by far the highest of the evening.
GS:
There was a possibility that Kevin Durant could’ve been a member of the Celtics during the offseason, so you could expect plenty of boos from the Boston faithful tonight. That kind of thing fires up KD, but I’m not sure that he needs it since the Celtics are giving up the second-most fantasy points to the small forward position this season. Draymond Green suffered a minor injury in the team’s last game and if anything pops up again, then Durant could see more time at the four.
Stephen Curry has exceeded the 5x value in four of his last five games; he’s a safe bet to do it again, considering the total on tonight’s game. Klay Thompson, who is obviously not happy with his role on the team right now, is taking on a team he’s been rumored to be traded to. Not sure how much validity there is to it, but it’s interesting to note. Klay has been underperforming a great deal this season, but maybe he puts on a show for his future employer. Oh no, I didn’t…just drum up a hot take!
BOS:
Big fan of Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley in this super up-tempo matchup. Both guys are still priced at a decent level (unlike Marcus Smart) and they’ll undoubtedly lead the charge for the Celtics tonight.
Kelly Olynyk had a massive 47.7 FDP performance against the Warriors in Boston last season- can he dial back the clock for this one? Amir Johnson has averaged just under 30 minutes per game in his last three and exceeded the 5x value in all of those games. If Al Horford is out again, both guys become incredibly valuable.
Portland Trail Blazers @ New Orleans Pelicans (-1, ML: -117) – O/U: 215.5
————Pace: POR- 8th / NO- 8th
OFF Efficiency: POR- 14th / NO- 27th
DEF Efficiency: POR- 27th / NO- 14th
Line Analysis:
We should have a great game for fantasy purposes tonight as both teams are tied for the eighth-fastest pace in the NBA. Both teams also suck on defense and Vegas says we’ll see a close game. Sounds good to me.
POR:
The Blazers are playing on the back-end of a B2B and their third game in four days. Typically, I like to avoid these kinds of situations but the Blazers are incredibly desperate for a win right now, and they got smoked the last two nights which makes them even more hungry.
I have a lot of interest in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum tonight. This Pelican’s defense flat out stinks, and I understand everything that’s going on with the Blazers lately but this is a great bounce-back spot.
I mentioned it yesterday, and I’ll probably do so every time the Blazers take the court: they have too many side pieces of production. Allen Crabbe bombed out last night but Evan Turner, Maurice Harkless and Mason Plumlee all balled outrageous last night. You’ll be better served to sort this all out if you own one of those fancy crystal balls.
NO:
Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday are both set to return tonight, so that caps the upside on a couple of guys we have been so excited about lately. The Blazers have been so terrible on defense this season, that you have to consider someone from this team; AD is that guy since they have been especially bad down low, giving up the third-most points per game in the paint this season.
Memphis Grizzlies (-2.5, ML: -145) @ Dallas Mavericks – O/U: 185.5
————Pace: MEM- 25th / DAL- 29th
OFF Efficiency: MEM- 24th / DAL- 26th
DEF Efficiency: MEM- 16th / DAL- 10th
Line Analysis:
On the surface, this doesn’t seem like much of a fantasy-relevant game but it’s quite the contrary. The Grizzlies are coming off a major upset win against the rival Clippers, so you have to wonder if they come back with the same intensity tonight. There are plenty of injuries for the Mavs and that’ll reveal some nice value plays.
MEM:
Mike Conley and Marc Gasol have dialed back the clock recently and produced some pretty solid performances. I’m not interested in either guy tonight, but I won’t call you bad names for going in that direction. Chandler Parsons has been in the lineup for the Grizzlies last five games, and eventually this may result in a dip of production for Vince Carter.
DAL:
Deron Williams, JJ Barea and Dirk Nowitzki are all out tonight, so Seth Curry and Harrison Barnes are the guys to look at. We can also take a flyer on Wesley Matthews. All guys are incredibly cheap for the roles they’ll be thrust into tonight, so don’t miss this opportunity.
Toronto Raptors (-4, ML: -175) @ Denver Nuggets – O/U: 216
————Pace: TOR- 22nd / DEN- 6th
OFF Efficiency: TOR- 2nd / DEN- 20th
DEF Efficiency: TOR- 23rd / DEN- 18th
Line Analysis:
TOR:
It is worth noting that the Raptors got blown out in Denver last season. DeMar DeRozan has never posted more than 34.4 FDP in Denver over the course of his career, while Kyle Lowry has had his ups and downs but only dropped 19.4 FDP there last season. Do they hate high altitude? I have no idea. What I do know is that Denver is giving up the most fantasy points per game to guards (PG/SG) this season, so something has to give.
DEN:
I’m not on many Nuggets tonight, except for Kenneth Faried. He’s posted totals of 45.3 and 44 FDP in his last two games (both in under 30 minutes), and if there is a particular spot to attack the Raptors it’s at power forward. Faried’s price has gone up tremendously here in the last couple days, but he’s on one right now. Wilson Chandler has been playing out his mind lately, but if he sees the DeMarre Carroll defense he may revert to his old hobbled ways.
Los Angeles Clippers (-7, ML: -300) @ Sacramento Kings – O/U: 205.5
————Pace: LAC- 16th / SAC- 28th
OFF Efficiency: LAC- 4th / SAC- 16th
DEF Efficiency: LAC- 1st / SAC- 29th
Line Analysis:
I expect the Clippers to come out with some vigor tonight after coming out flat at the onset against the Grizzlies on Wednesday. The seven-point spread in favor of the Clippers is right where it should be, so I think they’ll be in for a very normal night of solid production.
LAC:
Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are always in play, so tonight is no different. With many other high-priced options on the board, these two mega superstars could very well go overlooked. JJ Redick has been lights out in his last three games; I can see him at least hitting value but Sacramento has been in the middle of the pack in terms of stopping shooting guards this season.
SAC:
DeMarcus Cousins has some legendary performances. Since 2013, the only time Boogie hasn’t notched at least 30 FDP is a game that he got ejected in. Cousins has been great this season, and it’s quite possible that he’s putting on a show for potential future employers. You can almost be assured too that he’ll go low-owned with basically every NBA star on display tonight.
I may be tempted to take a shot on Rudy Gay in this spot, but it’s just a gut feeling.
San Antonio Spurs (-5.5, ML: -265) @ Los Angeles Lakers – O/U: 208
————Pace: SA- 27th / LAL- 4th
OFF Efficiency: SA- 9th / LAL- 10th
DEF Efficiency: SA- 8th / LAL- 18th
Line Analysis:
I gotta say, the Spurs may be in for an upset tonight. I don’t think the spread for the Spurs is high enough and the same goes with the money; it all seems a little too good to be true. In terms of fantasy, it has no effect on me but it should keep the game close…and that’s a good thing.
SA:
Love me some Kawhi Leonard in this matchup against a fast-paced team; this should allow him to get more possessions and we all know what happens when the ball is in his hands…magic! Pau Gasol has actually been far more consistent than LaMarcus Aldridge lately- not sure anyone saw that coming. At this point, it’s kind of crazy to fade Gasol, especially since the Lakers are giving up the most points per game in the paint this season. Aldridge just doesn’t have the upside for his current price.
LAL:
I really can’t advocate anyone on the Lakers in this matchup. D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle are the obvious go-to players each night for this team, but there are far better options on the board.